0. Launch Vehicle Failure Mode Database
Federal Aviation
Administration
Launch Vehicle Failure Mode
Database
AST Research and Development Project
Presented to: COMSTAC RLV Working Group
By: Nickolas Demidovich
Date: May 17, 2007

1. Overview Historical Database Tasking Status Findings to date
Phase 1
Phase 2
Status
Findings to date
Overall
Trends
Scope of Phase 2
Path Forward
Questions/Discussion

2. Historical Database Description of Project: Schedule Goal:
AST should compile and maintain a database of historical data on failures and reliability of rocket-powered vehicles. An exhaustive database would include not only percentage reliability and number of vehicles, but type and class of vehicle and, to the extent possible, the results of the failure analysis. The ultimate goal is to provide the industry with insight into what fails and why.
Phase 1 orbital space launch vehicles
Phase 2 available data on suborbital rocket powered (non-missile) vehicles (X-15 and others)
Schedule
Study Period: November 2006 –June 2007
Draft Report: Aug 2007
Briefing: Next COMSTAC
Goal:
Enhance Safety

3. Status of Phase 1
Historical Database on ELVs was created using open-source documentation on known failures
Database is Not proprietary
Database is Not ITAR controlled
Database is Preliminary
Timeframe:
28 percent of all launch failures over entire period had unknown failures
Early Soviet (late 50’s and 60’s) data not publicly available
“Failure” is as defined in FAA/AST report Guide to Probability of Failure Analysis for New Expendable Launch Vehicles:
“An in-flight failure occurs when a launch vehicle does not complete any phase of normal flight.”

4. Status of Phase 1 Launch vehicle Database Sources
Periodicals (i.e. Satellite News Digest, Jane’s Space Directory etc)
Books (i.e.; Encyclopedia Astronautica, Spaceflight and Rocketry, International Reference Guide to Space Launch Systems, etc)
Futron Corporation database from 1957
Electronic Library of Space Activity (ELSA)
Press releases
Cross checked data base with internet sites
USAF, NASA , etc

5. Known Cause of ELV Launch Failures Worldwide by Vehicle Subsystem 1957- May 2007
Propulsion anomalies
are salient failure
mode historically

6. Known Cause of Launch Failures Worldwide by Vehicle Subsystem 1980-May 2007
Propulsion anomalies
remain salient
failure mode to date

7. ELV Launch Failures Relative to Total Launches
US &
Soviet
Early
Launches
Initial Launches
By New Entrants

8. Percentage of Failed ELV Launches by Country and Decade

9. Summary of Findings to Date - Trends
Summary of Findings to Date - Trends
39 percent occur of failures occur during operation of the final stage
US vehicles have improved in this regard since 1990s
Nations generally have early surge in failure
Then decline and level off
Propulsion anomalies have been and continue to cause most known failures in ELV launches
All nations
Liquid, solid and combination

10. Summary of Findings to Date - Trends
Summary of Findings to Date - Trends
Guidance and navigation have historically been second leading cause of failure
Have dropped over time
Software and computing systems are a growing concern
8% of failures from
21% of failures since 1999

11. Scope of phase 2
Historical database on failures of rocket-powered aircraft currently being scoped
Database to focus on
Post-World War II U.S. government and commercial rocket-powered aircraft (such as X-planes, etc.)
Other Western post-World War II rocket-powered aircraft (such as French and British jets with auxiliary rocket engines)
Post-World War II Soviet rocket-powered aircraft
World War II and earlier projects (German ME 163, etc.)
Research to include NASA logs and other primary sources

12. Path Forward Updating ELV Database as launches occur
Historical Database of rocket powered lifting bodies in progress
Scoping for Relevance
Will update summary and database by next COMSTAC
Provides opportunity for RLV community to learn from anomalies in ELVs and rocket-powered lifting bodies