1. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Downscaling Tools Introduction to LARS-WG and SDSM

2. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada LARS-WG stochastic weather generator ( http:\\www.iacr.bbsrc.ac.uk\mas-models\larswg.html ) Generation of long weather time-series suitable for risk assessment Ability to extend the simulation of weather to unobserved locations A computationally inexpensive tool to produce climate change scenarios incorporating changes in means and in variability

3. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada LARS-WG stochastic weather generator ( http:\\www.lars.bbsrc.ac.uk\model\larswg.html ) Generates precipitation, min and max temperature and solar radiation Modelling of precipitation events is based on wet/dry series Semi-empirical distributions are used for precipitation amounts, dry/wet series and solar radiation Temperature and solar radiation are conditioned on the wet/dry status of a day Temperature and solar radiation are cross-correlated Parametric- e.g., WGENSemi-parametric - e.g., LARS-WG

4. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada LARS-WG Model calibration - SITE ANALYSIS Model validation - QTEST Generation of synthetic weather data - GENERATOR

5. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada SITE ANALYSIS

6. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada QTEST Compare observed and synthetic data to evaluate LARS-WG performance

7. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Base scenario file GENERATOR Generate synthetic weather data: to extend time series, or for climate change studies Scenario file

8. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada GENERATOR

9. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Limitations of LARS-WG (and weather generators in general)... Temporal downscaling only Designed for use at individual sites only (no spatial correlation) Can only represent events in calibration data set Generally underestimate variability

10. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada SDSM 1.A decision support tool for assessing local climate change impacts 2.Facilitates the rapid development of multiple, low-cost, single-site scenarios of daily surface weather variables under current and future climate forcing 3.Based on a multiple regression-based method

11. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada SDSM Structure 7 steps: Quality Control and Data Transformation Screening of Predictor Variables Model Calibration Weather Generation (using observed predictors) Statistical Analyses Graphing Model Output Scenario Generation (using climate model predictors)

12. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada

15. Model Verification

16. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada

20. Tmax > 25°C

21. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada

22. Cautionary Remarks SDSM provides a parsimonious technique of scenario construction that complements other methods SDSM should not be used uncritically as a “black box” (evaluate all relationships using independent data) Local knowledge is an invaluable source of information when determining sensible combinations of predictors Daily precipitation amount at individual stations is the most problematic variable to downscale The plausibility of all SDSM scenarios depends on the realism of the climate model forcing Try to apply multiple forcing scenarios (via different GCMs, ensemble members, time–slices, emission pathways, etc.)

23. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Projet FACC (en cours 2003-2004) Etude sur force/faiblesse de SDSM et LARS-WG pour extrêmes et variabilité climatique Coordonnateur Philippe Gachon Collaborateurs : - Ouranos : Alain Bourque, René Roy, Claude Desjarlais, Georges Desrochers, Vicky Slonosky, Diane Chaumont - EC-SMC (Qc) : Jeanna Goldstein, Jennifer Milton, Nicolas Major - McGill : VTV Nguyen, Charles Lin - INRS-ETE : André St Hilaire, Bernard Bobée, Taha Ouarda - UQAM : Peter Zwack - CCIS : Elaine Barrow - Post-Doc et étudiants : Tan Nguyen (PostDoc); Massoud Hessami (PostDoc); Mohamed Abul Kashem (PhD)

24. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada 1 2 3 4 5 5 Régions à étudier (Stat. Downscaling) 1961-1990 Tmin Tmax Tmoy Precipitation tot. 1 st Objective : intercompare SDSM & LARS-WG for downscaling extremes (regional case-studies)

25. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada 1 3 6 5 2 4

26. 2 Objective 2 nd Objective Develop observed climate indices used for verification & analysis (using STARDEX software)

27. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !!