1. Where is Harm’s Way? (Mapping Disaster Risk in the Philippines)
Department of Environment and Natural Resources
Manila Observatory
15 March 2005

2. Can you guess this hazard?

3. And this one…

4. Where does the money go?

5. Disaster Language Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability Risk
likelihood of harm, loss, disaster
Hazard
physical impact of disturbance
Exposure
elements affected by hazard
Vulnerability
capacity of community to prepare, absorb, recover from hazard
Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability

6. Risk = H x E x V

7. Hazards Natural Anthropogenic Typhoon Drought (El Nino)
Earthquake (Tremor, Landslide)
Volcano
Tsunami
Anthropogenic
Deforestation
Mining
Climate change (historical, projected)

8. Hazard: Typhoon
Data source: Joint Typhoon Warning Center ( )

9. Hazard: Drought (El Nino)
Data source: IPCC Data Distribution Centre-Climate Research Unit

10. Hazard: Earthquake

11. Hazard: Landslide (E-quake)

12. Hazard: Volcano

13. Hazard: Tsunami

14. Hazard: Deforestation

15. Hazard: Mining

16. Hazard: Climate change (historical rain, temperature)
Source: IPCC Data Distribution Centre-Climate Research Unit

17. Hazard: Climate change (projected warming)
Source: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization

18. Hazard: Climate change (projected rainfall)
Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

19. Exposure
Population
Natural habitat
Conservation areas
Groundwater

20. Exposure (Population)
Data source: NSO, (Population in 2000)

21. Exposure (Natural Habitat)

22. Exposure (conservation areas)

23. Exposure (groundwater)

24. Vulnerability Human Development Index Urban centers
Education
Health
Economy
Urban centers
Socio-eco pressures
Transport

25. Vulnerability (HDI)

26. Vulnerability (urban centers)

27. Vulnerability (socio-eco pressure)

28. Vulnerability (transport)

29. Risk Typhoon Drought (El Nino) Earthquake (tremor, landslide) Tsunami
Volcano
Climate Change (temperature, rainfall)

30. Risk: Typhoon

31. Risk: Drought (El Nino)

32. Risk: Earthquake

33. Risk: Landslide (Earthquake)

34. Risk: Tsunami

35. Risk: Volcano

36. Risk: Climate Change (Temperature)

37. Risk: Climate Change (Rainfall)

38. In sum, harm’s way: Typhoon Drought (El Nino)
Luzon (north, southeast), Visayas (east)
Drought (El Nino)
Mindanao (central, west)
Earthquake (tremor, landslide) + Tsunami
Northwest to southeast diagonal across RP
Volcano
Luzon (west central, south, southeast), Visayas (central, east), Mindanao (central)
Climate Change
Temperature: Mindanao, Visayas (central)
Rainfall: Luzon (central, south, southeast), Visayas (east)