1. Financial Management Series Number 14 Cost / Benefit Analysis Alan Probst Local Government Specialist Local Government Center UW-Extension Cost / Benefit Analysis Alan Probst Local Government Specialist Local Government Center UW-Extension

2. Cost / Benefit Analysis Performing a Cost/Benefit Analysis is basic to all financial decision-making Performing a Cost/Benefit Analysis is basic to all financial decision-making We each do it consciously or unconsciously every day for every action we take or purchase we make We each do it consciously or unconsciously every day for every action we take or purchase we make Major expenditures of public funds requires a more formal process Major expenditures of public funds requires a more formal process

3. Cost / Benefit Analysis A Cost/Benefit Analysis is most commonly used in local government as part of the Capital Budgeting process and the Capital Improvements Program (CIP).

4. Cost / Benefit Analysis In local government, the benefit is the maximizing public welfare versus maximizing profit in business In local government, the benefit is the maximizing public welfare versus maximizing profit in business Broader and more complex Broader and more complex Must estimate the value of benefits and costs that are indirect and intangible Must estimate the value of benefits and costs that are indirect and intangible

5. Cost / Benefit Analysis At its essence, it is a one to one comparison of the combined benefits versus the combined costs of pursuing a course of action or public policy At its essence, it is a one to one comparison of the combined benefits versus the combined costs of pursuing a course of action or public policy Realistically determining the costs and benefits is the challenge in government Realistically determining the costs and benefits is the challenge in government

6. Cost / Benefit Analysis “A public project is desirable when the present value of its estimated flow of benefits, discounted at the community’s cost of capital, equals or exceeds the project’s cost”

7. CostsCosts Money Money Opportunity Opportunity Time Time Personnel/Equipment Personnel/Equipment Public Reaction Public Reaction Intangibles Intangibles

8. MoneyMoney Opportunity cost of using cash on hand or cash reserve Opportunity cost of using cash on hand or cash reserve 1. Interest or investment potential 2. Funds not available for other projects 3. Depleted reserve may affect ability to borrow or issue bonds in the future

9. MoneyMoney Financing: Local loans, state loans, bond issue Financing: Local loans, state loans, bond issue 1. Interest rates 2. Availability of money to borrow 3. Statutory limits 4. Administrative costs

10. MoneyMoney Tools/Considerations Net Present Value determination Net Present Value determination Bond Rating Bond Rating Financial Trend Analysis Financial Trend Analysis

11. OpportunityOpportunity What could you do with money if didn’t spend it on this project What could you do with money if didn’t spend it on this project What other public need will not be fulfilled if this project is undertaken What other public need will not be fulfilled if this project is undertaken

12. TimeTime What is the cost in time What is the cost in time 1. Staff time 2. Elected officials time 3. Information technology time 4. Other equipment time 5. Other projects postponed time

13. Personnel/EquipmentPersonnel/Equipment In addition to time cost: In addition to time cost: 1. Will you need to hire additional personnel? 2. How much wear & tear on equipment? 3. What new equipment will be needed? 4. Insurance costs 5. Fuel costs

14. Public Reaction A political reality for elected officials is that public reaction to pursuing or not pursuing a project, policy, or course of actions must be considered A political reality for elected officials is that public reaction to pursuing or not pursuing a project, policy, or course of actions must be considered How the public perceives the cost in tax dollars can be more important than the financial considerations How the public perceives the cost in tax dollars can be more important than the financial considerations

15. IntangiblesIntangibles Intangibles are those costs which cannot readily be assigned a monetary value Intangibles are those costs which cannot readily be assigned a monetary value 1. Loss of historic value 2. Change of appearance 3. Decreased economic development opportunity 4. Loss of green space

16. BenefitsBenefits Monetary profit Monetary profit Increase in public safety or accessibility Increase in public safety or accessibility Increased capacity Increased capacity Increased recreational opportunities Increased recreational opportunities Increased economic development opportunities Increased economic development opportunities Improved quality of life Improved quality of life More efficient operations More efficient operations Lower taxes Lower taxes

17. Other Considerations Depreciation/amortization Depreciation/amortization US or state regulations US or state regulations Precedent Precedent

18. ExampleExample The City of Wildwood is considering establishing an industrial park to spawn economic development and jobs. The City wants to determine if the benefits of such an action will outweigh the costs. The City decides to perform a cost/benefit analysis to help facilitate the decision.

19. Costs (money) Land costs = $12,000 per acre Land costs = $12,000 per acre Acreage needed = 50 acres Total Land Costs = $600,000 Infrastructure costs (streets, lights, water & sewer) = $1.4 million Infrastructure costs (streets, lights, water & sewer) = $1.4 million Investment building = $326,000 Investment building = $326,000 Total industrial park costs = $2,326,000 Total industrial park costs = $2,326,000

20. Costs (opportunity) Costs (opportunity) Industrial park dollar cost could be invested at a rate of 2.7% APR for ten years for a total interest earned of $710,054 Industrial park dollar cost could be invested at a rate of 2.7% APR for ten years for a total interest earned of $710,054 Industrial park dollar cost could be used to rebuild 9.5 miles of streets. Industrial park dollar cost could be used to rebuild 9.5 miles of streets.

21. Costs (time) 140 hours of staff time 140 hours of staff time Three workshops and a public hearing to consider project Three workshops and a public hearing to consider project

22. Public Reaction If local unemployment is high, there may be a positive reaction If local unemployment is high, there may be a positive reaction Some element of the public will invariably feel this is a misuse of public funds Some element of the public will invariably feel this is a misuse of public funds The level of the positive and negative reactions must be considered in doing the analysis The level of the positive and negative reactions must be considered in doing the analysis

23. Anticipated Benefits For planning purposes we will assume: Each acre of the park will produce an additional $1 million in taxable property improvements within ten years at an average MIL rate of $11.45 for a benefit of $572,500 in increased property taxes Each acre of the park will produce an additional $1 million in taxable property improvements within ten years at an average MIL rate of $11.45 for a benefit of $572,500 in increased property taxes

24. Anticipated Benefits (cont.) Each acre of industrial park land is expected to produce an average of five (5) new jobs paying an average wage of $12.75 per hour for an annual income of $26,520 each. Assuming all acres are filled and jobs created within ten years, the park would increase the local economy by $6,630,000 per year.

25. ConclusionConclusion Based on the grossly optimistic benefit expectations for the industrial park, the financial benefits would greatly outweigh the costs of establishing the park. Benefits = $7,202,500 Costs = $2,326,000 Costs = $2,326,000 In this analysis, building and industrial park is a great idea.

26. RealityReality Industrial parks NEVER fill as fast as projected so average trends must be considered along with holding costs Industrial parks NEVER fill as fast as projected so average trends must be considered along with holding costs The overall national economy trends will greatly affect the realistic results The overall national economy trends will greatly affect the realistic results Wages are decreasing nation-wide. An average wage of $12.75 my be overly optimistic Wages are decreasing nation-wide. An average wage of $12.75 my be overly optimistic Intangibles may also have an affect Intangibles may also have an affect

27. More Likely Scenario Probably only about 15 acres of the park will be fully developed within 10 years. This would produce only an additional $171,750 in property tax income. Probably only about 15 acres of the park will be fully developed within 10 years. This would produce only an additional $171,750 in property tax income. Those acres will likely only produce an average of 3 jobs each with an average wage of $9.75 for an input to the local economy of only $912,600 Those acres will likely only produce an average of 3 jobs each with an average wage of $9.75 for an input to the local economy of only $912,600

28. More Likely Conclusion Costs = $2,326,000 Ten year benefits = $1,084,350 In this scenario, building the industrial park doesn’t appear to be a sound financial decision You can see by the difference in cost versus benefits that the assumptions you use in your projections greatly affect your outcome

29. Public Reaction You can safely assume those who support an industrial park will want to use the first projections while those who think the money would be better spent on a new library will want to use the latter projections. You can safely assume those who support an industrial park will want to use the first projections while those who think the money would be better spent on a new library will want to use the latter projections. No matter what numbers you use, you ultimately will have to answer to citizens who both support and oppose your decision No matter what numbers you use, you ultimately will have to answer to citizens who both support and oppose your decision

30. ConclusionConclusion While business can make decisions based solely on whether or not a proposed action will make a profit or minimize a loss, local government officials must take into account other factors Local government officials must consider public opinion and a variety of other intangibles in addition to cost comparative data but the cost/benefit analysis can make those decisions much easier and defensible