1. 'White Flight' in England and Wales? Examining Ward-Level Mobility Decisions in a Longitudinal Sample, 1991-2011 Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; g.harris1@bbk.ac.ukg.harris1@bbk.ac.uk http://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass http://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass twitter: @epkaufm

2. Community and Closure 'Neighborhoods can be open only if countries are at least potentially closed...The distinctiveness of cultures and groups depends upon closure and without it cannot be conceived as a stable feature of human life' Walzer (1983:39)

3. White Flight?

4. Manchester 1991-2001 London 1991-2001

6. USA 1970-2000 Source: data from Card Mas & Rothstein 2008 Source: Andersson Hammarstedt Neuman 2012

8. ‘Counterurbanization?’ A number of leading UK geographers (Catney and Simpson 2010; Finney and Simpson 2007; Simon 2009) suggest that both whites and minorities leave dense poor areas for leafier more attractive places But even they do not deny that ethnic preference plays some role Flight v Avoidance

9. Simpson (2007) Method Wards % White Quintile 1755498 Quintile 272687 Quintile 328873 Quintile 418057 Quintile 510234 Total885091 Toward diversity Away from diversity

10. Wards % White Quintile 1 6,72294% Quintile 2 1,02979% Quintile 3 40658% Quintile 4 24840% Quintile 5 16621% Total885082 Wards % White Quintile 1755498 Quintile 272687 Quintile 328873 Quintile 418057 Quintile 510234 Total885091 20012011

11. ONS Longitudinal Study The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: RES-348-25-0004). The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data. Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

12. Moved Out of Ward in 2000-2001: WardsWh BritishMinoritiesWH OtherWhite Irish 98% White75541.1%4.7%3.2%1.5% 87% White7265.4%6.4%7.7%4.1% 73% White2886.8%6.0%8.1%5.6% 57% White1807.0%4.6%7.8%3.8% 33% White1026.1%2.9%13.1%3.2% Total8850 Source: Office for National Statistics. 2001. ONS Longitudinal Study.

13. Nonwhites in Most Deprived Quintile of Wards in 2001 who moved over 10 kms over 1991-2001: Whitest01White01Med01Low01Most Minority01N Whitest9117.17%16.02%24.39%23.23%19.19%693 White918.89%13.21%24.26%26.95%26.68%371 Med914.59%15.55%21.91%33.22%24.73%283 Low915.18%13.99%26.42%27.46%26.94%193 Most Minority916.00%10.67%24.67%36.67%22.00%n.d. White British in Most Deprived Quintile of Wards in 2001 who moved over 10 kms over 1991-2001: Whitest01White01Med01Low01Most Minority01 Whitest9146.64%17.20%15.73%13.40%7.04%6396 White9133.00%19.70%21.06%16.50%9.73%812 Med9136.06%18.59%16.36%17.84%11.15%269 Low9133.79%22.76%21.38%15.17%6.90%145 Most Minority9134.25%16.44%19.18%20.55%9.59%n.d. Source: Office for National Statistics. 2001. ONS Longitudinal Study. Clearance #30131

14. Predictors of Leaving Quintile 5 (33% white) during 1991-2001 (t-stat) Source: Office for National Statistics. 2001. ONS Longitudinal Study. Clearance #30131

15. Predictors of Quintile Shift 1991-2001 (excluding area controls for ethnicity density poverty) Source: Office for National Statistics. 2001. ONS Longitudinal Study. Clearance #30131

16. London Net Domestic Migration 1991-01 by subgroup:INOUTNetNet % N White British39617,480-3,519-11.13% 31615 White Irish44226-182-13.07% 1392 White Other113181-68-3.21% 2121 Nonwhite6651,071-406-2.98% 13634 White British married1,3905,162-3,772-20.28% 18598 White British homeowner2,2956,479-4,184-16.81% 24888 White British Manager & Professional28174,334-1,517-8.46% 17928 White British Working Class4431,477-1,034-14.75% 7011 White British Council Housed275578-303-4.99% 6077 Black Caribbean57136-79-4.56% 1732 Indian182202-20-0.62% 3216 Muslim142136 +6 0.22% 2744 South Asian256289-33-0.68% 4829 Black African3039 -9 -1.02% 885 Total England & Wales Sample:407,101 Source: Office for National Statistics. 2001. ONS Longitudinal Study. Clearance #30131

17. 'What are the mechanisms through which racial context operates on thoughts of mobility? Although the optimal approach for answering questions about motivations would be to use longitudinal data that measure both attitudes and behavior at the individual level, these data do not exist‘ – Krysan 2002

18. White Movers Wards % White Quintile 1755498 Quintile 272687 Quintile 328873 Quintile 418057 Quintile 510234 Total885091 Diversity Seekers 24% Tory 18% Working Class 27% Degrees 57% English Identity 46% Tabloid 44% 17-25s 50% renters 49% single 10% anti-homosexual 9% gender traditionalists White Flight/Avoiders 24% Tory 18% Working Class 30% Degrees 57% English Identity 56% Tabloid 32% 17-25s 26% renters 35% single 12% anti-homosexual 12% gender traditionalists Source: BHPS/Understanding Society, 1991- 2011

20. Moved to less diverse Moved to more diverseStayerMover working class17.517.829.426.2 Con24.2 28.825.2 Labour41384038 Liberal16.217.613.914.4 degree & above3026.710.918 English identifier57.256.555.756.7 redtop55.8466763.4 broadsheet39.446.826.931.9 17-2532.444.28.429.3 rented26.349.85.329.5 total children25.616.928.731.6 Homosexuality Wrong11.810.421.513.8 Husband Should Earn11.98.652.864.7 British Citizenship Best74.865.4 Religious3631.24733.4 Source: BHPS/Understanding Society, 1991- 2011

21. Want to Move?: White Minority Area (Quintiles 4 & 5) AllNonwhiteWhiteWhite Working N.W. Working 47.3%45.5%49.5%59.7%38.2% N37728051840466222 Want to Move?: 98% White Area (Quintile 1) AllNonwhiteWhiteWhite Working N.W. Working 32.4%46.4%32.4%37.7%50% N671514914967013458144 Source: BHPS/Understanding Society, 1991- 2011

22. Networks rather than Nationalism? “If the church bulletin board is where people advertise rooms for rent, blacks will rent rooms from blacks and whites from whites because of a communication system…correlated with color” – Thomas Schelling 1978 Maybe white family/friend/association networks and minority networks differ in England, affecting where people relocate once they decide to move Could be amenities and culture: pubs v. mosques, garden centres v. ethnic restaurants OR could be subliminal ethnic avoidance distinct from conscious ideology End result is the same, however: white British withdrawal from diversifying urban zones

23. Conclusion Little white flight but more white ‘avoidance’(?). Not just counterurbanization Anti-immigration opinion seemingly not linked to propensity to leave or avoid minorities But white working class are more likely than white upper/middle to avoid diversity Networks or cultural preferences may explain these patterns, or latent ethnic motivations

24. Future Research Focus Group Work required to tease out meanings 4 focus groups: 2 in white minority areas, 2 in adjacent mainly white areas. 2 in London, 2 in Midlands 2011 data updates (ONS LS Census)