1. Global Warming Winter Storming Ellen E. Martin Dept of Geological Sciences Snow angel Ocala, Florida, Jan. 8, 2010

2. If global warming is really happening… Why was this winter so cold and wet? Winter 2010 -second coldest winter on record in Florida

3. Need to understand: the difference between climate and weather what :global warming” means Snowstorm in Washington DC, Feb. 2010

4. Climate vs. Weather Weather –The state of the atmosphere at a given time and place with respect to temperature, cloudiness, moisture, wind, pressure Climate –30 year average of atmospheric state (World Meteorological Organization) –“expected weather”

5. Global Warming A tendency for the global mean surface temperature to increase Average: Land and ocean All latitudes All seasons

6. Global Mean Temperature Mean Temperature- Gainesville 58°F 72°F

7. Measured temperature record for past ~150 yrs

8. Medieval Warmth Little Ice Age Northern Hemisphere Temperatures for the past 1000 yrs

9. Time series, Alaska Kilimanjaro, Africa

10. 1979 2000 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Arctic Sea Ice- summer http://www.youtube.co m/watch?v=JMQ21p93J Zc

11. Whether the world is getting warmer isn’t controversial Political debate focused on whether the world is getting warmer due to: - natural causes or - man-made greenhouse gases (the greenhouse effect)

12. Centuries Millennia Millions of years Zachos et al., 2001 Colder More ice

13. So, why was this winter so cold? El Niño

14. Conditions in US during El Niño winters Vancouver

15. Global warming = climate = global Cold winter in southeast US = weather = local El Nino La Nina Strong evidence that the global mean surface temperature of earth is increasing Related to El Niño conditions

17. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ From Goddard Space Institute

19. Record of atmospheric CO 2 from ice cores Record of atmospheric CO 2 from direct measurements (Hawaii)

20. Greenhouse Gases IPCC 2007 Ice core data

21. Ice Core CO 2 Record Modern rate of increased compared to past 400 ky

22. Atmosphere Earth’s Greenhouse (S/4)(1-  ) Earth T4T4 T s = 58°F Incoming Short wave energy Outgoing Long wave energy

23. Global Carbon Cycle NASA- earthobservatory (~1990) +3/yr +0.5/yr +1.5/yr Reforestation Deforestation 40,000,000 826 7

24. CO 2 by Country Per capita 2002

25. Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Kump, Kasting and Crane Consume all fossil fuels (2300)  2100 ppmV CO 2 (CCD)

26. Temperature- Greenhouse Gas Correlation NOAA/NCDC Correlation between temperature and CO 2 concentration

27. Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases IPCC 2007 Gases Processes

29. Climate System Atmosphere Geosphere - land Cryosphere -ice Hydrosphere -ocean Biosphere - vegetation