1. Study on future fuels for cargo vessels in the Baltic Sea
Laiva 2025
Study on future fuels for cargo vessels in the Baltic Sea
Nasif Rahman
Laiva 2025
Espoo,

2. Objectives
To analyze four non-conventional fuels considering Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) and Marine Gas Oil (MGO) combination as baseline properties
Fossil fuels
Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)
Biofuels
Biodiesel (B100)
Bioethanol (E85)
Marine Gas Oil (MGO) as main fuel
To analyze the ability of these fuels to fulfill future (2025) environmental regulations on air emissions
To carry out a cost analysis based on the net present value (NPV) calculations of a case ship with the five fuel options
Laiva 2025

3. Major Upcoming regulations
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
NOx
Tier II
2,5 g/KWh below Tier I (14.4 g/KWh for slow speed engines)
Tier III
80% reduction from Tier I (3.4 g/KWh for slow speed engines),regionally in the ECAs
SOx
SECA
Effective from 1 July, 2010
1,00% m/m
0,1 % m/m
Global
Prior
4,5% m/m
3,5% m/m
Review
0,5% m/m
EEDI
Phase 0 (ref. line)
2-20 gCO2 per ton.nm for dwt
Phase 1
10% reduction from Phase 0
Phase 2
20% reduction from Phase 0
Phase 3
- 30%
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4. Air emission assessment model (AEAM)
Engine RPM
DWT variation (tons)
All types Bulk carriers
<130
>2000
>20000
NOx
IMO Tier I
IMO Tier II 1
IMO Tier III 2
CO2
EEDI Phase 0
EEDI Phase 1
EEDI Phase 2
EEDI Phase 3 3
Sulphur content SECA
Before 1 July 2010
Between 1 July 2010 and 1 Jan 2015
After 1 Jan 2015 PM
Sulphates
-2 to +2
Nitrates
VOC from HC
Heavy metal
Soot
NH3
Methane CO HC
Ship specific emmisions
CFCs
19-May-05
HCFCs
1-Jan-20
Total
Laiva 2025

5. Case study: m/s Eira Dimensions Ice Class IA Super: Baseline case
Length overall
157 m
Length BPP
148 m
Breadth
24.6 m
Depth
13 m
Draft s.w
9.03 m
Deadweight
19625 tons
Lightweight
6428 tons
Main Engine
7860 KW 129 rpm
Auxiliary Engine (3 nos)
840 KW each, 1000 rpm
Ice Class IA Super: Baseline case
14 nautical mile per hour (knots)
75% maximum continuous rating (MCR) of the engines
Ice Class IA
14 knots
Ice Class IA Super slow steaming:
11 nautical mile per hour (knots)
50% maximum continuous rating (MCR) of the engines
Source: ESL Shipping Oy
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6. Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) calculation for different fuels
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Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) calculation for different fuels
EEDI = 𝐶𝑂 2 𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘
The calculated EEDI is a theoretical measure of the CO2 mass emitted per unit of transport work (grams CO2 per ton nautical mile) for a particular ship design
Variation in carbon content and specific fuel consumption of fuels
Variation in engine’s power requirement for different Ice Class
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7. Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) results
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Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) results
Fuels
Ice Class IA Super
Ice Class IA
Ice Class IA Super Slow speed
HFO+MGO
4.06% below Phase 1
4.2% below Phase 1
4.2% over Phase 2
LNG
9.1% over Phase 2
8.9% over Phase 2
14.73% over Phase 3
LPG
7.6% over phase 1
7.3% over phase 1
3.2% over Phase 3
Biodiesel
25.4% below Phase 1
25.7% below Phase 1
1.7% below Phase 1
Bioethanol
1.4% below Phase 1
8.6% over Phase 2
MGO
7.4% below Phase 1
7.6% below Phase 1
1.3% over Phase 2
Phase 0: starts from 2013
Phase 1: starts from 2015
Phase 2: starts from 2020
Phase 3: starts from 2025
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8. Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and Sulphur Oxides (SOx) emission results
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Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and Sulphur Oxides (SOx) emission results
All main and auxiliary engines pass Tier III with LNG
With LPG and ethanol, the passing limits are Tier II
HFO and MGO pass Tier I
Biodiesel can only pass Tier I with slow steaming
All the studied fuel contain very low sulphur than HFO and MGO, they all can pass SECA 2015 regulation
Source: IMO MARPOL annex VI reg. 13
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9. Air emission assessment model results
Does not show much variations between Ice Class IA Super and Ice Class IA
Results are better in slow steaming case
LNG and then LPG give best results
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10. Net present value (NPV) estimation: variables
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Net present value (NPV) estimation: variables
Up to 2025, biodiesel as main fuel would be the most expensive
After 2025, heavy fuel oil (HFO) as main fuel would be the most expensive
Investments cost other than machinery costs have kept constant for both cases
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11. Net present value (NPV) estimation: Annual fuel cost
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Net present value (NPV) estimation: Annual fuel cost
About two third cost with 11 knots speed than 14 knots
Ethanol is much cheaper but its consumption is high for same power output
As a result, cost with ethanol is similar with LNG and LPG
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12. Net present value (NPV) estimation
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Net present value (NPV) estimation
Slow steaming offers less NPV value for the ship for non-conventional fuels
Change in annual income with LNG/LPG for DWT/gross volume loss from 305 cubic meters net volume (119 ton) fuel tanks
In case with HFO and MGO, slow steaming provides better NPV because of their high fuel price in the future
Laiva 2025

13. Laiva 2025
Conclusions
LNG would be the best fuel option considering air emission properties and cost analysis
Small difference in results in case of Ice Class IA
Much better results on air emission properties in case of slow steaming
Slow steaming must be decided based on cargo flow in the market
Whole lifecycle CO2 emission analysis needed for biodiesel
Laiva 2025

14. Future Challenges
Cost reduction from less air emissions: Mainly on reduction of NOx and SOx emission
Port of Stockholm: up to 23%
Port of Mariehamn: up to 24%
Port of Rotterdam: up to 10%
CO2 trade: the EU scheme
The European Union Emission Trading Scheme: Cap and Trade Principal
31 countries involved; 1,000 factories, power stations, and other installations with a net heat excess of 20 MW as of Jan 2013
Shipping not included (near future?)
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15. Thank you
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