2. GHG emission projections from the agricultural sector in Denmark Steen Gyldenkærne ( Agronomist, PhD) National Environmental Research Institute Denmark Workshop on emission projections: Bonn, Germany 6-8 September 2004

3. Introduction Introduction to Danish agriculture The emission inventories - Agriculture - LULUC(F) State of the art in the projections - Regression models/macro economic models Lessons learned

4. Source: O. Hertel, NERI (2001) NH 3 and NH 4 emission in Europe

5. 62% of the land is under plough Pig production: 85 % is exported Dairy products: 60% is exported High leaching rates of nitrogen to coastal waters - higher than the IPCC default factor Deforestation is banned Very regulated agriculture - maximum N application rates are 90% of economical optimum - demands for high N-efficiency in manure (50-75%) Restablisment of wetlands and extensification of agricultural areas Danish Agriculture

6. Cattle and sowsPigs, total Development in animals

7. Number of holdings minus 8-9% p.a. Average farmer does not exist - lifestyle has disappeared

8. Data for Agriculture Statistics DenmarkDanish Agricultural Advisory Centre Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences National Environmental Research Institute

9. Agricultural inventory in ONE module

10. Data sheet for Dairy cows (Poulsen et al. 2001)

11. N 2 O and CH 4 emission with and without measures

12. N 2 O and CH 4 emission with and without measures

13. Effect of Land Use, IPCC guidelines Tier 2 - preliminary results

14. Projection models? Macroeconomic Supply-Demand model Expert knowlegde / Bottom up / regression model High national agricultural and environmental regulations Competitiveness Industrial state of the agriculture Veterinarian Standard Investments in buildings and machinery

15. Handling Uncertainty - Monte-Carlo

16. Handling new technology DIEMA is able to handle new technology by adding new variables - today app. 100 different stable combinations - 26 combinations of manure application Biogas plants are incorporated in a preliminary version

17. Important with agricultural knowledge, good net-work and colleagues (informal contacts are invaluable) Bottom-up models and expert knowledge gives the most detailed projections and may be preferred on the short term Macroeconomic models are a good supplement International reporting obligations has to be followed up by allocated financial resources Lessons learned

18. Thanks to all my colleagues Thank you for your attention