1. Current Coping Strategies and Adaptation to Climate Change Dr. Barry Smit Professor of Geography Canada Research Chair in Global Environmental Change University of Guelph UNFCCC Expert Workshop on Local Coping Strategies New Delhi, 12-13 November 2003

2. Existing Coping Strategies to Current Climate-Related Risks how related to Adaptation to Climate Change

3. Climate-Related Risks are Part of Climate Change Drought Years

4. more hot days and heat waves fewer cold days, frost days more intense precipitation events increased risk of drought increased tropical cyclone peak wind intensities intensified droughts and floods increased Asian summer Monsoon precipitation increased intensity of mid-latitude storms Climatic Conditions as Part of Climate Change (IPCC TAR 2001)

5. Scenario-Based Approach Climate Change Scenario Biophysical Impacts Socio-Economic Impacts Adaptations to Impacts Residual or Net Impacts Net Impacts = Impact - Adaptation Vulnerability = Impact - Adaptation V = I - A

6. Current Adaptive Capacity Current Exposure Future Exposure Climate Science Social Science Current Vulnerability Future Vulnerability Vulnerability Approach Future Adaptive Capacity Current Vulnerability

17. Current climate risks are part of climate change Local coping strategies are the basis for adaptation to climate change Technologies are just part of adaptive capacity Promotion of Adaptation (as committed to in UNFCCC) requires local level initiatives