1. 1 Progress on Science Activities in 2007 Climate Forecast Products Team  CPC Products List  RISA POC Projects, Personnel, and Products  NDFD  Question CPC/POC Need to Answer  Proposed Products Edward O’Lenic Chief, Operations Branch, CPC CTB-SAB meeting August 28, 2007

2. 2 RISA-POC Activities oCTB has engaged the Climate Applications Community to identify user needs, and to accelerate the transition of relevant research into CPC products. oCPC is developing an inventory of its current operational products and their future direction. oCTB/CPC RISA POCs are developing lists of proposed future products, and services.

3. 3 Inventory of CPC Official Products 3 MONTH OUTLOOK Product Name Product Components Input DataFreq. Issued Performance Measure / Verification Users & Uses# of Web Hits Planned Improvements US Three- Month Probabilistic Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks (Three month seasons out to 1 year) 13 images and grids for US Temperature 13 images and grids for US Precipitation NDFD elements for probability of above and below normal/median temperature/ precipitation for each of 13 leads Dynamical tools (CFS, multi-model ensembles) Statistical tools (SMLR, CCA, OCN, ENSO composites) Inter-agency tools (IRI, ESRL, Scripps). ENSO Outlook MonthlyPerformance (GPRA) Measure: Heidke Skill Score for US Temp Verification: gridded station data Public/private decision makers for economic & business planning (Top Users: Energy, Agriculture, Retail, H2O Resources, Commodities, Public) AvailableImproved tools and consolidation Additional objective verification & performance measures User feedback on desired format (e.g. GIS) and user interface Inclusion of distribution information as NDFD elements US Three Month Outlook Discussion 1 text documentAs aboveMonthlySubjective user feedback Public/private users with technical background AvailableUser feedback on forecast Hawaiian Three Month Outlooks and Discussion Images and grids 1 text document As aboveMonthlyVerification: gridded station data Subjective user feedback As AboveAvailableAs above

4. 4 Inventory of CPC Official Products Hurricane Outlooks Product Name Product Components Input DataFreq. Issued Performance Measure / Verification Users & Uses # of Web Hits Planned Improvements Atlantic Hurricane Outlook (Jun-Nov) 1 text document # of Named Storms; # of Hurricanes; # of Major Hurricanes; ACE Index Dynamical tools (CFS seasonal forecasts) Statistical tools ENSO Outlook Twice per year (May; August update) Verification: # of Named Storms; # of Hurricanes; # of Major Hurricanes ACE Index Public/private decision makers for economic & business planning ( Emergency Mgmt; Insurance Industry, Public) AvailableImproved tools and consolidation User feedback on desired format Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook (Jun-Nov) 1 text document # of Named Storms; # of Hurricanes; # of Major Hurricanes Dynamical tools (CFS seasonal forecasts) Statistical tools ENSO Outlook As aboveVerification: # of Named Storms; # of Hurricanes; # of Major Hurricanes As aboveAvailableImproved tools and consolidation User feedback on desired format

5. 5 Inventory of CPC Official Products 1 MONTH OUTLOOKS Product Name Product Components Input DataFreq. Issued Performance Measure / Verification Users & Uses # of Web Hits Planned Improvements US One- Month Probabilistic Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks 2 images and grids for US Temperature 2 images and grids for US Precipitation. NDFD elements for probability of above and below normal/median temperature/ precipitation Dynamical tools (CFS, multi-model ensembles) Statistical tools (SMLR, CCA, OCN, ENSO composites) Inter-agency tools (IRI, ESRL, Scripps). ENSO Outlook Twice per month (middle & end of previous month) Verification: gridded station data Public/private decision makers for economic & business planning (Top Users: Energy, Agriculture, Retail, H2O Resources, Commodities, Public) AvailableImproved tools and consolidation Additional objective verification & performance measures User feedback on desired format (e.g. GIS) and user interface Inclusion of distribution information as NDFD elements US One Month Outlook Discussion 1 text document As above Subjective user feedback Public/private decision makers with technical background for insight into 1-mo fcsts AvailableUser feedback on forecast

6. 6 Product Name Product Components Input DataFreq. Issued Performance Measure / Verification Users / Uses # of Web Hits Planned Improvements 6-10/8-14 Day Probabilistic Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks 4 images and grids for US Temperature and Precipitation NDFD elements for probability of above and below normal/median temperature/ precipitation Dynamical Tools (GFS, NAEFS) Statistical Tools (Klein, Analog, Neural Net) DailyPerformance Measure: Heidke Skill Score; Ranked Probability Skill Score Verification: gridded station data Public/private decision makers for economic & business planning AvailableObjective skill based blend weighting. Additional tools, skill measures. Inclusion of 8-14-day distribution information as NDFD elements 6-10/8-14 Day Mean North American 500 HPA Outlook 2 images and grids Dynamical Tools (GFS, ECMWF, Canadian) Statistical Tools DailyAnomaly correlations for Northern Hemisphere, North America, and US/CAN Public/private decision makers with technical background for economic & business planning AvailableObjective skill based blend weighting. Additional dynamical models. 6-10/8-14 Day Outlook Discussion 1 text discussion As aboveDailyNoneAs aboveAvailableIncreased Collaboration Increased manhour resources Inventory of CPC Official Products 6-10/8-14 Day Outlooks

7. 7 Inventory of CPC Official Products Hazards Assessments / Heat Index Product Name Product Components Input DataFreq. Issued Performance Measure / Verification Users & Uses # of Web Hits Planned Improvements 3 to 14 Day Hazards Assessment 3 imagesHeavy precip climos, IR animations, CPC MJO reports, CPC ENSO Bulletins, SPC Convective Outlooks, Gridded Precip OBS, CPC 6-10/8-14 Day Outlooks/Heat Index/Wind Chill, HPC short range outlooks Daily (Except weekend) Hit rate, threat score, probability of detection, false alarm rate, bias Emergency managers, private industry and public for mitigation of potentially hazardous events AvailableProbability maps of extreme temperature, precipitation, severe weather, and other, variables. 3 to 14 Day Hazards Discussion 1 text document 3 to 14 Day Hazards Assessment DailySubjective user feedback As aboveAvailableUser feedback via weekly telephone conference call 6-10/8-14 Day Maximum Heat Index Prediction 2 imagesCADB Hourly & Daily OBS, GFS Ensembles (2m temp gempak grids), ascii station climos [1971- 2000] DailySubjective user feedback Heath officials & local emergency managers for health risk mitigation AvailableBased upon verification and user feedback

8. 8 Inventory of CPC Official Products Diagnostic Discussions & Bulletins Product Name Product Components Input DataFreq. Issued Performance Measure / Verification Users & Uses # of Web Hits Planned Improvements ENSO Diagnostic Discussion 1 text document ENSO monitoring images (SST Anoms, upper ocean heat anoms, subsurface temp anoms). Statistical and dynamic model fcst ensembles (IRI Plume), CPC Consolidated SST, Weekly CPC ENSO Reports monthlyOceanic Nino Index Technical support of climate outlooks / public & private decision makers w technical background AvailableInclude ENSO Alert Classification System Climate Diagnostics Bulletin ~75 text images and grids Tropics Indices & Plots (SLP, SOI, zonal wind, OLR, SST). Extratropics plots (temp, precip, heights, SLP, storm tracks, ozone). monthlyNoneInsights into climate outlooks / decision makers with technical background AvailableOceanic and atmospheric monitoring products Intraseasonal monitoring Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin weekly

9. 9 RISAs, POCs, Activities RISAContactsArea of Collaboration Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC) Muthuvel Chelliah Jim Jones, Keith Ingram, Jim O’Brien Downscaling CPC Outlooks, Regional ENSO Impacts; Crop Yield Forecasting; Applications of high resolution GCM,CFS hindcasts. Western Water Assessment (WWA) Michelle L’Heureux Andrea Ray Decision support for drought mitigation and water management. Climate Assessments for the Southwest (CLIMAS) Ed O’Lenic Holly Hartmann Improve users’ ability to access and interact with, and make decisions based upon CPC outlooks. Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP) Jon Gottschalck Daniel Whitehead, Sarah Fleisher Trainor, James Partain Storm Track Monitoring, Assessment, and development of prediction-related products on weekly, monthly and seasonal time scales California Application Program (CAP) Kingtse Mo Dan Cayan, John Roads Soil moisture analyses from 4 NLDASs and regional reanalysis, CFS-based drought forecasts, MME applications to SI forecasts, week 1, week 2 E, P, soil moisture relationships from NLDAS. University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System (CSES) Doug LeComte Dennis Lettenmaier Enhancements to U.W. surface water monitor, Improved tools for Drought Monitor and Drought Outlook.

10. 10 NDFD: Product Delivery Super Highway NDFD is the National Digital Forecast Database. It was developed in response to a National Research Council (NRC) recommendation (2003) that NWS make its data and products available in digital form, using widely recognized standards. The NDFD Concept of Operations has three main precepts: 1. The NWS Weather Forecast Office forecaster is the local expert/decision-maker. 2. Optimization of information flow between NWS and partners/customers. 3. Collaboration among NWS components in building the NDFD. 4. Formats available: FTP, http, XML, GML NDFD vastly improves the accessibility of NWS products to the user community.

11. 11 NCEPNCEP R2O 1. GENERALIZED R&D (O2R) 2. O2R: DEVELOP PRODUCTS 3. R2O: OPERATIONALIZE R&D PRODUCTS INTO NDFD 4. PRODUCT DELIVERY – VIA NDFD XML DOCUMENTS * USERS DIY, OR ENGAGE RISA/PRIVATE ENTERPRISE 5. O2R: USER FEEDBACK LEADS TO NEW R&D REQUIREMENTS NDFD Products Make Life Easier 2 NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infra- structure for the transition processes User Communit y R&D Community OPERATIONS NDFD 1 3 EMC CFS 5 O2R R2O 4 CT B CP C

12. 12 Questions CPC/POC should answer 1. How do we make the O2R process reliable and formal?1. How do we make the O2R process reliable and formal? 2. What is the metric for “accelerate transition of research into operations”?2. What is the metric for “accelerate transition of research into operations”? 3. NDFD applies to FORECAST products. What about other products?3. NDFD applies to FORECAST products. What about other products? 4. What other variables should be predicted? Should we make circulation forecasts? Should ENSO SST be included? Should the forecast be divided between the inter-annual and trend components (for the 3-month outlooks)?4. What other variables should be predicted? Should we make circulation forecasts? Should ENSO SST be included? Should the forecast be divided between the inter-annual and trend components (for the 3-month outlooks)? 5. What other questions should we be asking?5. What other questions should we be asking?

13. 13 Proposed New Products Climatological distribution information, including mean and standard deviation, probability of certain thresholds, limits associated with the 50% and 95% confidence intervals of the forecast and climatology (on NDFD).Climatological distribution information, including mean and standard deviation, probability of certain thresholds, limits associated with the 50% and 95% confidence intervals of the forecast and climatology (on NDFD). Prototype forecasts for weeks 3, 4 using consolidation of forecasts from CFS, LIM and other available models with skill histories.Prototype forecasts for weeks 3, 4 using consolidation of forecasts from CFS, LIM and other available models with skill histories. New ability to assess week 2, 3, 4 extreme event hazards for use in U.S. Hazards and Global Hazards AssessmentsNew ability to assess week 2, 3, 4 extreme event hazards for use in U.S. Hazards and Global Hazards Assessments Experimental probabilistic seasonal drought outlookExperimental probabilistic seasonal drought outlook Experimental implementation of probabilistic precipitation forecast tool in the U.S. Hazards AssessmentExperimental implementation of probabilistic precipitation forecast tool in the U.S. Hazards Assessment Interactive crop yield, drought mitigation, water management and cost/loss tools.Interactive crop yield, drought mitigation, water management and cost/loss tools.

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