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Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS1 Forest Change and Fire in Colorado’s Front Range A presentation that uses computer-generated drawings and animations to.

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Presentation on theme: "Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS1 Forest Change and Fire in Colorado’s Front Range A presentation that uses computer-generated drawings and animations to."— Presentation transcript:

1 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS1 Forest Change and Fire in Colorado’s Front Range A presentation that uses computer-generated drawings and animations to describe the results of forest succession and fire behavior modeling. Jane Kapler Smith USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Fire Modeling Institute 20 May 2002

2 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS2 Forests change. More time… more (& bigger) trees. c. 1903 c. 1903 1999 1999

3 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS3

4 4 1896 now ???? future

5 5

6 6 To understand Forest Change: A Mathematical Model “Forest Vegetation Simulator” Forest succession, fuels, & fire

7 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS7 1999 1999 future? c. 1903 c. 1903

8 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS8 “Model”? Models help us understand… and predict

9 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS9 Mathematical model: Use data to find patterns from the pastUse data to find patterns from the past Understand the presentUnderstand the present Predict the futurePredict the future

10 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS10 “Mathematical model”? May 1979

11 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS11 1.How do forests change over time? 2.How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? 3.How do our choices influence forests… and fires?

12 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS12 Ponderosa pine in Colorado

13 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS13 Cheesman Reservoir: Historic data on Ponderosa Pine Forests Thanks to: Merrill Kaufmann, Paula Fornwalt, Laurie Huckaby, and Jason Stoker, Rocky Mtn. Research Station

14 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS14 1.How do forests change over time? 2.How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? 3.How can our choices influence forests… and fires?

15 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS15 The players: ponderosa pine… 0.5 inch

16 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS16 3+ inches Fire resistant buds & bark at 7 years old

17 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS17 … and Douglas-fir 0.1 to 0.2 inch

18 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS18 Reproduces well even in shade

19 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS19 1899 2000

20 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS20

21 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS21 1896 1899 c. 1903 c. 1903

22 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS22 Medium-46% Dense-70% Open-18% Modeled examples:

23 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS23 2000 Modeled 2000 Data ~1896 Data

24 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS24 Modeled Patches on the Landscape 1900 2000

25 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS25 19001910192019301940195019601970198019902000 Modeled Succession:

26 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS26 19001910192019301940195019601970198019902000

27 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS27 1900 1900 1910 1920193019401950 1960 1970 1980 19902000

28 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS28

29 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS29 1900 1910192019301940195019601970198019902000 Modeled Succession

30 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS30 1900 1910192019301940195019601970198019902000 “ladder fuels”

31 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS31

32 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS32 19001910192019301940195019601970198019902000

33 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS33 19001910192019301940195019601970198019902000

34 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS34 How do Front Range forests change over time? Increased crown cover Increased number of small trees Small Douglas-firs outnumber all other species and all other sizes.

35 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS35 1.How do forests change over time? 2.How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? 3.How can our choices influence forests… and fires?

36 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS36 All fires are not equal Surface fire Passive crown fire Active crown fire

37 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS37 2000 Modeled 2000 Data ~1896 Data

38 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS38 Modeling Cheesman Historic Fires:

39 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS39 Cheesman Historic Fires Again

40 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS40 1899

41 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS41 19002000

42 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS42 Model fire behavior: One patch of forest One patch of forest 1900 (open crown cover) 1900 (open crown cover) vs. 2000 (medium to dense crown cover) vs. 2000 (medium to dense crown cover)

43 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS43 Modeled fire spread: 5 mph winds 1900 2000

44 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS44 5 mph winds again 1900 2000

45 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS45 Active crown fire Passive crown fire Surface fire

46 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS46 Surface & Passive Crowning Active Crowning Open (1900) Dense (2000) Modeled Potential for Active Crown Fire 0 1020304050 Wind, mph 60

47 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS47 1900 2000 5 mph wind 40 mph wind After fire– modeled view from above

48 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS48

49 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS49

50 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS50

51 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS51 How has succession in Front Range forests influenced fire? Greater risk of active crown fireGreater risk of active crown fire More smokeMore smoke Greater likelihood of erosionGreater likelihood of erosion

52 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS52

53 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS53 1899 2000

54 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS54 1.How do forests change over time? 2.How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? 3.How can our choices influence forests… and fires?

55 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS55 Modeled 2050 No data 2050 2000 Modeled 2000 Data ~1896 Data

56 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS56 Modeled 2050 Modeled 2050 1900- 2000 Data ?? Modeled 2050

57 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS57 2000 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2050 Choice 1: “Hands off” 2050 Choice 2: Thin from below, prescribed burn

58 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS58 2050 - 1: “hands off” 2050 - 2: Treat 25% 20001900

59 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS59 2000 2050 Choice 1: “Hands off” 2050 Choice 2: Thin from below, prescribed burn

60 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS60 1900 170 trees/ac 2000 409 trees 20002010 2020 203020402050 547 trees Modeled Succession

61 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS61 20002010 2020 203020402050 547 trees

62 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS62 1900 2000 Modeled Succession 2000 20102020203020402050

63 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS63

64 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS64 Denser (2050) Surface & Passive Crowning Active Crowning Open (1900) Dense (2000) Modeled Potential for Active Crown Fire 0 1020304050 Wind, mph 60

65 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS65 2000 2050 Choice 1: “Hands off” 2050 Choice 2: Thin from below, prescribed burn

66 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS66 Modeled Treatment and Succession 20012007– after thinning & fire2010202020302040 2050 Ponderosa pine Douglas-fir Aspen

67 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS67 20012007– after thinning & fire2010202020302040 2050

68 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS68 treated (2010) treated (2010) treated (2050) treated (2050) Surface & Passive Crowning Active Crowning Dense (2000) Modeled Potential for Active Crown Fire 0 1020304050 Wind, mph 60

69 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS69 2000 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2050 Choice 1: “Hands off” 2050 Choice 2: Thin from below, prescribed burn

70 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS70 Ponderosa pine in Colorado

71 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS71 1.How do forests change over time? 2.How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? 3.How do our choices influence forests… and fires?

72 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS72 1.How do forests change over time? 2.How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? 3.How can our choices influence forests… and fires? 18962000

73 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS73 1.How do forests change over time? 2.How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? 3.How can our choices influence forests… and fires?

74 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS74 1.How do forests change over time? 2.How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? 3.How can our choices influence forests… and fires?

75 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS75 “Models”

76 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS76

77 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS77 Thank you! Thanks for help: Arapaho-Roosevelt N.F., Bitterroot N.F., Amy Smith, Carol Akerelrea, Cass Cairns, Dennis Simmerman, Denver Water (photo archives), Don Zimmerman, Duncan Lutes, Dwain Smith, Fire Use Management Team, Jason Stoker, Jim Menakis, Joe Scott, John Hutmacher, Joint Fire Sciences Project, Larry Bradshaw, Laurie Huckaby, Merrill Kaufmann, Mick Harrington, Nick Crookston, Paul Moore, Paula Fornwalt, Rick Fletcher, Sherry Ritter, Staff at Forest Management Service Center, Steve Arno, Wayne Cook

78 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS78 Publications documenting some of the information in this presentation: Kaufmann, Merrill R.; Fornwalt, Paula J.; Huckaby, Laurie S.; Stoker, Jason M. 2001. Cheesman Lake– a historical ponderosa pine landscape guiding restoration in the South Platte watershed of the Colorado Front Range. In: Vance, Regina K.; Covington, W. Wallace; Edminster, Carleton B., tech. coords. Ponderosa pine ecosystems restoration and conservation: steps toward stewardship; 2000 April 25-27; Flagstaff, AZ. Proceedings RMRS-P- 00. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. Kaufmann, Merrill R.; Huckaby, Laurie; Gleason, Paul. 2000. Ponderosa pine in the Colorado Front Range: long historical fire and tree recruitment intervals and a case for landscape heterogeneity. In: Neuenschwander, L. R.; Ryan, K. C.; Gollberg, G. E.; Greer, J. D., eds. Crossing the millennium: integrating spatial technologies and ecological principles for a new age in fire management, Vol. 1. Moscow, ID: University of Idaho and International Association of Wildland Fire: 153-160. Kaufmann, Merrill R.; Regan, Claudia M.; Brown, Peter M. 2000. Heterogeneity in ponderosa pine/Douglas-fir forests: age and size structure in unlogged and logged landscapes of central Colorado. Canadian Journal of Forestry Research. 30:698-711.

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