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Kenji KISHIMOTO Forecast Division Japan Meteorological Agency.

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Presentation on theme: "Kenji KISHIMOTO Forecast Division Japan Meteorological Agency."— Presentation transcript:

1 Kenji KISHIMOTO Forecast Division Japan Meteorological Agency

2  Introduction  JMA Dvorak analysis  Summary

3  Introduction  JMA Dvorak analysis  Summary

4  Center position  Central pressure  Maximum winds (10 minute averages)  50-knot wind radius  30-knot wind radius JMA best track data starts from 1951 and adds wind data from 1977.

5 Dvorak analysis system TC analysis system Weather chart analysis system

6 Almost all TCs generate and reach the peak intensity over the sea where there is few surface observation. Tropical storm formation position Peak intensity position 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Percentages at each 5-degree square (1573 TCs from 1951 to 2010 in WNP) Best track intensity are mainly based on Dvorak analysis after termination of aircraft observations in 1987.

7  Introduction  JMA Dvorak analysis  Summary

8 Dvorak (1984) EIR method JMA rule (1) Koba table (2) landfall rule CI number T number

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10 Koba H., T. Hagiwara, S. Osano and S. Akashi, 1991: Relationships between CI Number and Minimum Sea Level Pressure/ Maximum Wind Speed of Tropical Cyclones., Geophysical Magazine, Vol.44, No.1, 15-25.

11 Central pressure Maximum winds The Koba table is based on comparison between JMA best track data during the reconnaissance period and reanalysis CI numbers. JMA best track data with JMA Dvorak ensure consistency with ones during the reconnaissance period.

12 Kamahori et al. (2006) found that, based on RSMC-Tokyo best track dataset, there was a substantial decrease in the number of TC days for intense typhoons over the WNP between the periods 1977- 1990 and 1991-2004. However, this result differed from the one using the JTWC dataset which showed an increasing trend in the number of TC days for intense typhoons. Difference in best tracks of JTWC and RSMC-Tokyo from 1977 to the present (in satellite observation era)

13 MSW estimation from Dvorak analysis provide the mean value corresponding to CI numbers, which makes it unsuitable to detect intense typhoons. Aircraft observations can detect more intense typhoons.

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15 Observations at Japanese southern islands: MSLPs and maximum winds (10 minute averages) Aircraft observations during T-PARC and ITOP: MSLPs and SFMR maximum winds in Vortex messages

16 SFMR-dropwindsonde comparison with the best fit SFMR wind (m/s) dropsonde (m/s) The accuracy of SFMR estimation has large uncertainty especially in case of strong winds. Havel, Patrick J, 2009: Surface wind field analysis of tropical cyclone during TCS-08: Relative impacts of aircraft and remotely-sensed observations, Naval Postgraduate School, Sept, 2009, 76pp

17  Introduction  JMA Dvorak analysis  Summary

18  JMA best track data ensure consistency between before and after the termination of the aircraft observation, except the following.  The change from aircraft observation to satellite estimation apparently brings decreasing trend in the frequency of intense typhoons.

19 http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.htm

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