1. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute I NDABA A GRICULTURAL P OLICY R ESEARCH I NSTITUTE Presented by Antony Chapoto, PhD At Reconciling agricultural growth with the reduction of poverty Policy dialogue on “Food Security & Nutrition in Zambia: Issues, Gaps and Opportunities” Raddison Blu Hotel, Lusaka August 14, 2014

2. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Why this presentation  Highlight Zambia’s economic achievements and potential  Identify the opportunities arising from  rising population (food demand)  rapid urbanization  rising urban incomes  diverse and changing consumption patterns  Data on Zambia’s smallholder sector  Potential value chains  Conclusion 1

3. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Zambia’s Economic Achievements  Zambia  Classified as low-middle income by World Bank  GDP growing at 6% per annum  Agricultural growth rate at 7% - above 6% CAADP Goal  Three consecutive maize bumper harvest years 2 BUT Persistently high rural poverty: ≈80%

4. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Behind this backdrop  Zambia is characterized by  Rapid population growth – 13 million  High poverty rates ~ 80% of rural people poor  High food and income inequality in urban areas  High malnutrition rates of children under 5 years  Rapid urbanization and increasing demand for food  Stagnant agricultural production

5. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Under exploited potential  Zambia is in a unique position  Abundance of fertile land  Water  Generally, favorable climate for agricultural production  Growing population, rapid urbanization and rising incomes creating more opportunities for smallholder farmers  Can easily become a ‘Breadbasket’ for Southern Africa

6. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Rainfed Agriculture  Zambian smallholders highly vulnerable to weather shocks  Ability to respond has improved  Irrigation, winter maize  Ag. policies stagnant % of maize area planted to be harvested 5

7. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Poverty in Zambia Urban pop growing but rural population still high 64% Rural poverty rates stubbornly high Urban poverty declining rising income rising demand for a variety of ag processed commodities Source: GRZ’s Central Statistical Office and RALS 2012

8. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Under nutrition a national problem  53% of under 5 children exhibit signs of growth stunting in Zambia  Incidences of stunting are higher in rural Zambia than in urban: 56.6 % compared to 47.8% in urban.  Eastern and Northern Provinces have the highest number of children who are stunted  provinces with the highest high levels of poverty and relatively higher population densities Source: LCMS 2006 Under 5 children exhibiting signs of growth stunting

9. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Population growth and urbanization  Rising population and rapid urbanization  Urban consumers income is growing but high inequality  Changing consumption patterns  Diverse market opportunities Are Zambia’s agricultural policies amenable to these opportunities? 8

10. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Urban Food Budget Shares For Key Products, 2007 Food Item----------% expenditure share ---------- LusakaKitweMansaKasama Cereals & Staples24.127.428.027.2 Dairy items5.23.61.72.0 Meat & eggs16.815.612.714.5 Fish7.68.412.412.5 Vegetables13.715.011.414.2 Fruits3.643.74.0 Other Foods16.417.116.918.4 Tobacco & alcohol5.34.66.34.0 Food away from home 7.34.36.93.2 Total100.0  Combined importance of meat, eggs, fish & dairy has surpassed the role of cereals/staples.  For poorest, cereals still dominate  Vegetables also important group, especially for poorest  Poultry & eggs have become very important & dominate the meats group outside Lusaka Potential market: Urban Food Consumption Patterns

11. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Share of different staples within total expenditure on staples by urban centre Staple ---% Percent share by urban centre--- LusakaKitweMansaKasama Maize39.845.343.645.4 Wheat40.736.117.917.6 Rice8.78.88.212.1 Cassava0.81.820.413.6 Other staples10.08.010.011.4 Total100.0 maize still dominates for lower income consumers, but wheat has become very important for all urban consumers. In Lusaka, wheat products dominate among staples except for the lowest expenditure groups Cassava important in Mansa & Kasama, esp. among low expenditure quintile of consumers Potential market: Urban Food Consumption Patterns

12. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute 11 Wheat Product Consumption Trends - Zambia

13. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute 12 Urban Food Budget Shares Staples

14. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute 13 Urban Food Budget Shares-Meat & Eggs

15. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Principal Crop Zones Maize-led economy Surplus Maize – Central and South Surplus Cassava – North

16. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Livelihood Zones Zambia has potential for diversity For most recent livelihood zone report see http://www.fews.net/sites/default/files/documents/reports/ZM_LZ_descriptions_2014.pdf

17. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Evidence that many smallholder households are land constrained -- 25% have less than 0.5 ha of land -- 58% indicate there is no unallocated land in their village 16 Smallholder farmers land constrained

18. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Percent of smallholder that say “There is NO land available” <20% 20-40% 41-60% 61-80% >81%

19. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Source: FSRP (2009). Agricultural Surveys – Voice of smallholder farmers Population Density and Distribution in Zambia, 2007 Settlements concentrated on areas with infrastructure Considerable land is covered by water, national parks, GMA Hence the paradox of land constraints in midst of plenty Land Utilization Follows Infrastructure Development 18

20. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Land constraints  Rural settlement follows public investment in rural infrastructure  Land constraints in a land-abundant country is not a paradox  economically viable arable land requires access to basic services, water, schools, roads, and markets.  The basic public investments to make settlement economically viable have yet been made in many areas of Zambia

21. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Food crops production trends 20 Maize and Cassava production Source: CFS, various years

22. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Food crops production trends 21 Groundnuts, Sweet potato and Beans production Source: CFS, various years

23. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Negatively affecting Crop Diversification 22 Source: CFS, various years

24. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Average yields of key commodities compared to global average Source: CFS datasets, various years with Global figures obtained from COMESA 23

25. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Livestock Ownership among Smallholder farmers 24 Source: RALS (2012): Note HH=household Of 1,417,992 smallholder farmers 21.2% own cattle 25.3% own goats 14.7% own pigs 0.6% own sheep 76% own village chicken

26. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Average Number of livestock Owned among Smallholder Livestock Households 25 Source: RALS (2012) National average of livestock owned among smallholder households

27. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Cassava

28. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Zambia Cassava Production  most important crop grown after maize produced by small-scale farmers  Current production >1million tons/year  >80% of households in the cassava belt rely on cassava as a staple especially the poorest  Great potential  Two initiatives started to enhance cassava production and utilization  Root and Tuber Improvement Programme  Acceleration of Cassava Utilization Task Force  Cassava Strategy Plan for the sector

29. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Zambia Cassava Production

30. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Urban Food Budget Shares For Key Products, 2007 Food Item----------% expenditure share ---------- LusakaKitw e MansaKasam a Cereals & Staples24.127.428.027.2 Dairy items5.23.61.72.0 Meat & eggs16.815.612.714.5 Fish7.68.412.412.5 Vegetables13.715.011.414.2 Fruits3.643.74.0 Other Foods16.417.116.918.4 Tobacco & alcohol5.34.66.34.0 Food away from home 7.34.36.93.2 Total100.0 Cheap effective source of vitamins, minerals & calories. Positive impact on other agro production systems (re investment potential). Potential avenue for poverty reduction through ag for land-constrained farmers BUT, land constrained farmers tend to be poor in income and assets (including education) And hort. production requires high use of inputs such as cash inputs and knowledge Horticulture: An option for smallscale producers?

31. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Horticulture not yet playing a major role for most land-constrained farmers Share of hhs selling ffv and maize, by quintile of land holding FFV Maize

32. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Share selling ffv and maize, by quintile of land holding KENYA FFV Maize Playing a much larger role in Kenya

33. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Conclusion  Zambia has:  potential to have broad-based economic growth;  potential to address the stubbornly high rural poverty rates and high malnutrition;  potential to be the ‘breadbasket for the region’;  But: Policies should evolve and take advantage of the many agricultural opportunities arising from the rising food demand, rising urban incomes and the changing consumption patterns. 32

34. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute 33