1. POVERTY PRESENTATION AT UNDP OFFICE POVERTY STATUS AND TREND IN TANZANIA MAINLAND, 2007 - 2011/12 Presented by Sango A. H. Simba National Bureau of Statistics 23 rd October, 2014 1

2. 9 August 20159 August 20159 August 20152 Part I: Diagnosis Introduction and background Part II: Findings Poverty Assessment The 2007 and 2011/12 HBS ( The 2007 and 2011/12 HBS ) SCOPE OF WORKSHOP

3. 9 August 20159 August 20159 August 20153 PART I DIAGNOSIS

4. Assessment of Poverty Indices by using Backward Methodology NBS has managed to use Backward Methodology to re-estimate poverty Indices of the 2007 HBS. These include: Incidence of Poverty; Distribution of Poor Population Poverty Inequality and Depth; 9 August 20159 August 20159 August 20154

5. 5 The 2011/12 HBS is the Fourth Scientific Initiative done by the Government and Development partners to evaluate Poverty status in Tanzania Mainland Evaluation Answers the Following Questions: Evaluation Answers the Following Questions:  The recent poverty trend and profile  Where are Poor People  Poverty Inequality and depth  Poverty against Population Size  Poverty against Demographic Status I. Coverage of Presentation

6. Estimated Poverty Lines S/No.Lines 2007 (TZS) 2011/12 (TZS) 1.Extreme (Food) Poverty Line 12,14426,085 2.Basic Need Poverty Line 19,20136,482 9 August 20159 August 20159 August 20156 Analysis covers DSM, Other Urban, Rural and Tanzania Mainland

7. 9 August 20159 August 20159 August 20157 PART II SURVEY FINDINGS

8. 9 August 20159 August 20159 August 20158 1: The Recent Poverty Trend and Profile “Basic Need Poverty” declined by 6.2 percent since 2007. Reduced from 34.4 percent in 2007 to 28.2 in 20011/12; “Extreme Poverty” declined from 11.8 percent in 2007 to 9.7 percent in 2011/12, a reduction of 2.1 percent; “Incidence of Poverty” differ between rural and urban: more significant in Rural compared to urban (Dar es Salaam and Other Urban Areas); and Broad consensus on the reduction of poverty at the Dar es Salaam and Rural compared to other urban Poverty has Decline since 2007

9. 9 August 20159 August 20159 August 20159

10. The Profile of Poverty The proportions of the poor population ranged from 4.1 percent in Dar es Salaam to 33.3 percent in rural areas (a range of 29.2 percentage points) in 2011/12; and In 2007 HBS, the lowest incidence was 14.1 in Dar es Salaam and the largest was 39.4 in rural areas (a range of 25.3 percentage point). 9 August 20159 August 20159 August 201510 Poverty decreased by 18 percent in Tanzania Mainland, 10 percent DSM, 6.2 percent in Rural areas and only a percent in Other Urban Areas

11. Profile of Poverty by Domain Type of PovertyDSM Other Urban Rural Tanzania Mainland Basic Needs Poverty Line (Monthly per Adult Equivalent) 2007 14.1 22.7 39.434.4 2011/12 4.121.733.328.2 Extreme (Food) Poverty Line (Monthly per Adult Equivalent) 2007 3.28.913.5 11.8 2011/12 1.08.711.39.7 9 August 20159 August 20159 August 201511

12. 12 2: Where are the Poor Persons? The distribution of poor population (living below the basic needs poverty line) within Tanzania Mainland declined to 11,909,427 in 2011/12 from 13,175,509 poor persons in 2007: Geographically; Less than two (1.5) percent founded in Dar es Salaam; 14.4 percent live in Other Urban Areas; and Over three quarters (more than 80 percent) live in rural areas.

13. Distribution of Poor Persons by Domain, 2007 and 2011/12 Domain 20072011/12 Food Basic Need Food Basic Need Other Urban 602,5541,539,521 687,440 1,718,507 Rural 3,825,29111,201,451 3,387,103 10,015,440 Dar-es-salaam 99,576434,537 41,314 175,480 Tanzania Mainland 4,527,42113,175,5094,115,857 11,909,427 13 The absolute number of the Basic Needs poor people decreased significantly than food poverty between 2007 and 2011/12.

14. Percentage Distribution of Poor Persons by Domain, 2007 and 2011/12 14 Domain 20072011/12 Food Basic Need Food Basic Need Other Urban 13.311.716.714.4 Rural 84.585.082.384.1 Dar-es-salaam 2.23.31.01.5 Tanzania Mainland 4,527,42113,175,5094,115,85711,909,427

15. 15 3. Poverty Inequality and Depth “Gini coefficient” “Gini coefficient” commonly known as Gini has been used to measure Inequality of distribution of per capita consumption expenditure: The Gini takes the values between zero and one: A “zero” Gini value indicates perfect equality while a value of “1” indicates perfect inequality in the distribution; and Mean and MedianMean and Median: Have also used to measure the details of inequality in monthly per consumption expenditure

16. Mean and Median Per Capita Consumption Expenditure and Gini Coefficient by Area, Tanzania Mainland; 2007 and 2011/12 HBS Year /AreaMeanMedianGini Coefficient 2007 Other Urban39,423.431,116.10.38 Rural27,789.622,452.40.35 Dar es Salaam49,211.837,492.60.37 Tanzania Mainland31,577.524,228.60.37 2012 Other Urban73,879.257,559.90.37 Rural52,763.945,089.10.29 Dar es Salaam109,030.385,959.60.35 Tanzania Mainland62,395.549,346.80.34 16

17. Lorenz Curve for Monthly Household Consumption Expenditure for Tanzania Mainland, 2007 and 2011/12 17

18. Lorenz Curve for Monthly Household Consumption Expenditure by Area, Tanzania Mainland; 2007 and 2011/12 18

19. Poverty Depth Poverty Gap Index (PGI). The depth of poverty is measured by the Poverty Gap Index (PGI). It measures the depth of poverty being experienced by each household below the basic needs poverty line. In 2007, the poor population were a little far below the Basic Needs Poverty line (10.3) as compared to 2001/12 (6.7); The decline is also shown between all three domains (Table below). 19

20. Depth of Poverty by Area, Tanzania Mainland; 2007 – 2011/12 Area Poverty Gap Index (PGI) 20072012 Other Urban7.35.5 Rural11.87.8 Dar es Salaam3.50.8 Tanzania Mainland10.36.7 20 Due higher level Food Poverty, the rural areas generated a higher PGI of 11.8 percent in 2007 and 7.8 percent in 2011/12.

21. Depth by PGI by Area, Tanzania Mainland; 2007 – 2011/12 21

22. Other Non – income Indicators Poverty declines strongly with education 22 Education of Household Head 2007 HBS2011/12 HBS Food Poverty Basic needs poverty Food Poverty Basic needs Poverty No education19.648.712.040.8 Adult education22.942.912.828.4 Primary incomplete12.140.111.432.1 Primary complete9.230.110.126.9 Secondary and above2.16.01.45.4 Total11.834.49.728.2

23. Cont …. Access to public infrastructure is linked to lower poverty 23

24. Cont… Wage employment is associated with lower levels of poverty 24

25. Cont…. Migrants are less poor 25

26. Conclusion 12 million Tanzanians still lived below poverty line. Out of them, 10 million poor persons and 3.4 million extreme poor people live in rural areas; The depth and severity of poverty (which measure how far the poor are from the poverty line) have also fallen and clustered around the line; Inequality between Dar es Salaam and other areas is increasing though there was a decline of inequality in the country; 26

27. Cont….. Poverty associated with larger families, lower education, low access to infrastructure. This is evidenced by Improvements in non-monetary dimensions of welfare; Inequality partly explained by family background; and Demographic pressures pose a challenge to poverty reduction in the country. 27

28. 28 Thank You…It’s a Great Pleasure to Meet You All!