1. Re-validation of the Nonviolent Offender Risk Assessment Instrument: Preliminary Findings

2. Current Instrument

3. 3

4. Refined Risk Assessment Instrument: Significant Factors in Assessing Risk Never Married by Age 26 Additional Offenses Prior Arrest w/in Past 18 Mos. Prior Adult Incarcerations Male Offender Not Regularly Employed Offense Type Prior Felony Record Offender Age Relative Degree of Importance 4

5. Recommended for Alternative Not Recommended for Alternative N=6,062 N=6,141 N=6,418 N=6,413 N=6,981 N=7,060 N=6,704 N=6,204 * Offenders recommended by the sentencing guidelines for prison or jail incarceration Risk Assessment Outcomes for Nonviolent Offenders * 5

6. Study Methodology

7. Offenders were identified from the sentencing guidelines database Selection criteria: Felony fraud, larceny, and drug offenders Sentenced in FY2005 and FY2006 (most recent that can be used) Recommended for incarceration by the sentencing guidelines (jail or prison) Meet risk assessment eligibility requirements No worksheet errors Status: Complete Identification of Offenders for the Study 7

8. 8 Total = 12,442 Offenders Meeting Selection Criteria by Most Serious Offense

9. Staff drew a sample of 1,799 offenders who met the selection criteria Staff selected cases based on a stratified random sampling technique to increase the likelihood of including offenders with juvenile adjudications of delinquency Criminological studies have shown that juvenile record and the age of first contact with the juvenile justice system are often correlated with subsequent offense behavior as an adult Status: Complete Selection of Study Sample (based on approved design) 9

10. No Juvenile RecordJuvenile Record Drug300 Larceny300 Fraud300299 Total sample: 1,799 offenders For the analysis, the sampled cases were weighted to reflect each subgroup’s actual proportion in the population Composition of the Sample 10

11. Selection of Study Sample (based on approved design) 11 A large sample was preferred, as some cases were eliminated in subsequent stages For some offenders, supplemental data revealed a prior conviction for a violent felony Some offenders were still incarcerated Some offenders had died For one case, available data were insufficient to include the offender The approved strategy is similar to the original risk assessment study completed in 1997

12. Staff requested and received criminal history records (“rap sheets”) from the Virginia State Police These only reflect criminal arrests and convictions within Virginia Records were provided in database format Staff examined the data to remove duplicate records and records incorrectly matched to offenders in the sample, and to identify offenders for whom no rap sheet was found Virginia Criminal History Records Status: Complete 12

13. For much of this data (25,439 arrest records, or more than 2/3), the VCC offense code was missing (only statute or text description was available) Staff researched cases and filled in VCC offense codes with the best available information Having offense identifiers is helpful in the analysis phase For 5,307 of the 36,025 arrest records, there was not a court disposition Staff used other criminal justice databases to identify and fill in convictions wherever possible Virginia Criminal History Records Status: Complete 13

14. Sentencing Commission staff completed the necessary forms and procedures to request out-of- state criminal history records from the FBI Request was reviewed by a FBI special board and approved Sentencing Commission received out-of-state rap sheets in two forms: paper copies and PDF (image) files on disc For the 15 states that do not participate in the FBI’s electronic rap sheet system, these records came on paper (532 rap sheets) For the remaining states, the records came in PDF (image) files Out-of-State Criminal History Records Status: Complete 14

15. Since none of these records were in database format, staff examined the rap sheets Needed information was recorded on a specially-designed data collection form This information was then automated and added to existing databases These records were used to supplement prior record, if necessary, as well as to identify recidivism activity Out-of-State Criminal History Records Status: Complete 15

16. For offenders in the sample who received a prison sentence, staff requested and received data on release dates from the Department of Corrections For offenders who received a jail sentence, staff analyzed the Local Inmate Data System (LIDS) to identify the appropriate date of release For offenders who received a straight probation sentence, the release date was assumed to be the sentence date, unless the offender was still being held on other charges Using these release dates, offenders were then tracked for recidivism activity Dates of Release from Incarceration Status: Complete 16

17. Recidivism Measures 17 As with prior nonviolent offender risk assessment studies, the official measure of recidivism is a new felony conviction within 3 years However, multiple measures of recidivism were collected Any new arrest New felony arrest Any new conviction New felony conviction New conviction is measured as a new arrest within three years of release that ultimately resulted in a conviction

18. Two analysts work largely independently of one another using two different statistical techniques Staff will discuss and reconcile differences in the two statistical models to develop an improved final model Staff have developed preliminary models Analytical Approach Status: Ongoing 18

19. A total of 131 cases had to be excluded from the analysis ReasonNumberPercent Offender has prior violent felony 65 47.4% Offender has current violent felony 17 12.4% Offender still in prison 53 38.7% Rap sheet could not be located 1 0.7% Other 1 0.7% TOTAL137100% 19

20. For the analysis, the sampled cases were weighted to reflect each subgroup’s actual proportion in the population Composition of Actual Population DrugNo Juvenile Record 39.1% DrugJuvenile Record 9.9% LarcenyNo Juvenile Record 25.6% LarcenyJuvenile Record 5.7% FraudNo Juvenile Record 17.2% FraudJuvenile Record 2.6% Composition of Sample after Cases Excluded Before Weighting After Weighting DrugNo Juvenile Record 17.5% DrugJuvenile Record 16.8% LarcenyNo Juvenile Record 16.5% LarcenyJuvenile Record 16.4% FraudNo Juvenile Record 16.1% FraudJuvenile Record 16.7% 39.1% 9.9% 25.6% 5.7% 17.2% 2.6% 20

21. Preliminary Findings

22. Offender Characteristics – Demographics Analysis is based on the sample weighted to reflect the population of offenders eligible for risk assessment Age Sex Race 22 Total = 1,662

23. Analysis is based on the sample weighted to reflect the population of offenders eligible for risk assessment Prior Person Felonies Offender Characteristics – Prior Record Prior Property Felonies Prior Drug Felonies Total = 1,662 23

24. Prior Juvenile Record Prior Incarcerations Analysis is based on the sample weighted to reflect the population of offenders eligible for risk assessment Offender Characteristics – Prior Record Total = 1,662 24

25. Criminal History Records 25 Total = 1,662 Offenders with Arrests/Charges in Virginia Only Offenders with Arrests/Charges Outside of Virginia

26. Criminal History Records 26 More than half (302 of 558, or 54%) of the out-of-state records have been examined in detail to determine the specific states in which offenders have charges or arrests Alaska 1 2 2 5 2 2 Maryland 58 Wash DC 41 18 12 1 1 4 1 5 5 5 1 1 1 44 2 3 17 4 1 1 16 14 24 2 2 1 15 10 Federal 50 3

27. Analysis is based on the sample weighted to reflect the population of offenders eligible for risk assessment Median Sentence: 6 months Median Sentence: 18 months Type of Disposition Received 27 Total = 1,662

28. Three-Year Recidivism Rates Analysis is based on the sample weighted to reflect the population of offenders eligible for risk assessment 28 New conviction is measured as a new arrest within three years of release that ultimately resulted in a conviction 1,509 of the 1,662 offenders could be tracked for the full three years

29. Cumulative Recidivism Rate (New Felony Conviction within Three Years) by Month of Follow-Up Analysis is based on the sample weighted to reflect the population of offenders eligible for risk assessment 29 Total = 1,509

30. Recidivism Rate (New Felony Conviction within Three Years) by Offense Group Analysis is based on the sample weighted to reflect the population of offenders eligible for risk assessment 30 Total = 1,509

31. Recidivism Rate (New Felony Conviction within Three Years) by Juvenile Record Analysis is based on the sample weighted to reflect the population of offenders eligible for risk assessment 31 Total = 1,509

32. Analysis is based on the sample weighted to reflect the population of offenders eligible for risk assessment Recidivism Rates (New Felony Conviction within Three Years) by Offender Characteristics Age Sex 32 Total = 1,509

33. Recidivism Rate (New Felony Conviction within Three Years) Analysis is based on the sample weighted to reflect the population of offenders eligible for risk assessment 33 Total = 1,509 Recommendation of the Current Risk Assessment Instrument (as scored)

34. Recidivism Rate (New Felony Conviction within Three Years) Analysis is based on the sample weighted to reflect the population of offenders eligible for risk assessment 34 Total = 963 Recommendation of the Current Risk Assessment Instrument For Offenders Who Received Points on the Marital or Employment Factors

35. Scoring of Employment Record on Current Risk Assessment Instrument 35 Staff identified offenders in the study for whom an automated Pre/Post-Sentence Investigation (PSI) record was available Staff further analyzed offenders who did not receive points on the employment factor on the current risk assessment tool − The PSI revealed that nearly 36% of those offenders had not been regularly employed during the two years prior to arrest and, therefore, should have received points on the risk assessment instrument

36. Analysis is based on the sample weighted to reflect the population of offenders eligible for risk assessment 36 New Felony Offenses Committed by Recidivists (N=408) Type of OffensePercent Drug38.1% Larceny29.1% Fraud13.0% Felony traffic4.4% Assault3.6% Weapons3.1% Burglary2.9% Robbery1.7% Failure to appear0.9% Kidnapping0.9% Sex offense0.7% Murder/manslaughter0.4% Federal0.4% Other0.7% TOTAL100%

37. Preliminary Risk Assessment Model: Significant Factors in Assessing Risk Relative Degree of Importance 37

38. Staff will continue analysis and will present the final model to the Commission in November 2011 If the Commission approves the new instrument and recommends its adoption, it will be included in the 2011 Annual Report Work Plan 38