1. Trends Exploration Workshop Summary University of Minnesota Boreal Forest and Community Resilience Project September 27, 2012

2. Purpose Draw on data and information presented thus far + integrate with stakeholder knowledge Synthesize key trends relative to northeast landscape Identify and prioritize key trends and implications to focus on in the Northeast Landscape Plan Update Learn about each others’ perspectives Build a base of support for plan & implementation Have fun Outcomes Workshop Goals

3. June 12 workshop activities Presentation Keypad voting on top trends Closing discussion Lightning Trends Discussion Round 2 Lightning Trends Discussion Round 1 Lightning Trends Discussion Round 3

4. Kick-off Presentation Recap on what we heard from you and from experts in different topic areas Topic areas: Economic, ecological, recreation, tribal, demographics, development, climate change, water and fisheries, wildlife Worksheets highlighted your perspectives

5. Lightning Trends Discussions Topics Administration & Funding Climate Change Demographics Development & Ownership Ecological Health Economic *topics in italics were suggested at the beginning of the workshop activities First 5 minutes individual brainstorming about trends and implications Next 20 minutes facilitator leds discussion of trends and implications Last 5 minutes discussion participants identify top trends (using 3 dots) Forest Products Invasive Species Tourism Tribal Trends Water & Fisheries Wildlife Discussion questions: What are the key trends relative to this topic that might be relevant to the Northeast Landscape Plan Update? What are the implications of each of these trends in the northeast landscape?

7. Keypad Voting Top trends in each topic Voting questions For this trend, what is the crucial time frame? How important is it to address this trend in the Northeast Landscape Plan Update?

8. Keypad Voting Results Question 1: For this trend, what is the crucial time frame? 1.1-10 years 2.11-20 years 3.21-50 years 4.51-100 years 5.more than 100 years 6.don’t know

9. TrendTopicMean 1 ModeSD 1 n "don't know" responses #(%) Not as effective in implementation of the NE Landscape Plan Administration and Funding1.0010.00186 (33.00%) Increased political assertion by tribes Tribal Trends1.0510.24170 (0.00%) Increased use of forest management guidelines Water and Fisheries1.1110.33192 (10.53%) Ecological classification systems used by managers differ Ecological Health and Condition1.1310.35172 (11.76%) Increase in mining pressure Development and Ownership1.1810.39181 (5.56%) Need for collaboration Wildlife1.2210.55180 (0.00%) Declining forest products industry Forest Products1.2410.56181 (5.56%) Increased tribal capacity to exercise vested rights on the landscape Tribal Trends1.2510.58193 (15.79%) Declining moose populations Wildlife1.2610.45190 (0.00%) Need for more collaboration Administration and Funding1.2810.75191 (5.26%) Increasing awareness of the need for management Forest Products1.3510.49181 (5.56%) Elevation of mining as a new resource economy Economic1.4011.12194 (21.05%) Increasing water temperature Water and Fisheries1.4110.62192 (10.53%) Positive feedbacks between invasives plus interactions with human disturbances Invasive species1.4410.78191 (5.26%) Increasing storm intensity Water and Fisheries1.5010.65195 (26.32%) Hard rock / new mining Demographics1.5311.06183 (16.67%) Aging population Demographics1.5310.64194 (21.05%) Changing markets resulting in changing management Economic1.5610.70191 (5.26%) Increases in insect outbreaks and new insects due to climate change and other factors Invasive species1.5610.70191 (5.26%) Possible responses: 1=1-10 years, 2=11-20 years, 3=21-50 years, 4=51-100 years, 5=More than 100 years, 6=Don’t know 1 Value 6 (Don’t know) is removed from mean and SD calculation to capture mean and standard deviation of the time scale responses. Summary Table : For this trend, what is the crucial time frame? (pg 54-55)

10. Possible responses: 1=1-10 years, 2=11-20 years, 3=21-50 years, 4=51-100 years, 5=More than 100 years, 6=Don’t know 1 Value 6 (Don’t know) is removed from mean and SD calculation to capture mean and standard deviation of the time scale responses. TrendTopicMean 1 ModeSD 1 n "don't know" responses #(%) Increase in small parcel sizeDevelopment and Ownership1.591,20.62192 (10.53%) Declining cold water fish populationsWater and Fisheries1.6510.79192 (10.53%) Uncertainty is increasingly recognizedClimate Change1.671,60.89197 (36.84%) Increasing diversity of expectations for recreational opportunitiesTourism and Recreation1.7220.67191 (5.26%) Changes in forest management and fire affecting wildlife habitat and populationsWildlife1.7810.94180 (0.00%) Increasing detachment from the natural environmentTourism and Recreation1.8211.19192 (10.53%) Shifts in mega-faunaWildlife1.8320.62191 (5.26%) Decreasing anglersWater and Fisheries1.8721.06194 (21.05%) Changing forest productsForest Products1.8920.68191 (5.26%) Species shift and phenological changesClimate Change2.281,31.23181 (5.26%) Long-term landscape scale homogenizationEcological Health and Condition2.5561.37176 (35.29%) continued… Summary Table : For this trend, what is the crucial time frame? (pg 54-55)

11. TrendTopicMean 1 ModeSD 1 n "don't know" responses #(%) Not as effective in implementation of the NE Landscape Plan Administration and Funding1.0010.00186 (33.00%) Increased political assertion by tribes Tribal Trends1.0510.24170 (0.00%) Increased use of forest management guidelines Water and Fisheries1.1110.33192 (10.53%) Ecological classification systems used by managers differ Ecological Health and Condition1.1310.35172 (11.76%) Increase in mining pressure Development and Ownership1.1810.39181 (5.56%) Need for collaboration Wildlife1.2210.55180 (0.00%) Declining forest products industry Forest Products1.2410.56181 (5.56%) Increased tribal capacity to exercise vested rights on the landscape Tribal Trends1.2510.58193 (15.79%) Declining moose populations Wildlife1.2610.45190 (0.00%) Need for more collaboration Administration and Funding1.2810.75191 (5.26%) Increasing awareness of the need for management Forest Products1.3510.49181 (5.56%) Elevation of mining as a new resource economy Economic1.4011.12194 (21.05%) Increasing water temperature Water and Fisheries1.4110.62192 (10.53%) Positive feedbacks between invasives plus interactions with human disturbances Invasive species1.4410.78191 (5.26%) Increasing storm intensity Water and Fisheries1.5010.65195 (26.32%) Hard rock / new mining Demographics1.5311.06183 (16.67%) Aging population Demographics1.5310.64194 (21.05%) Changing markets resulting in changing management Economic1.5610.70191 (5.26%) Increases in insect outbreaks and new insects due to climate change and other factors Invasive species1.5610.70191 (5.26%) Summary Table : For this trend, what is the crucial time frame? (pg 54-55) Possible responses: 1=1-10 years, 2=11-20 years, 3=21-50 years, 4=51-100 years, 5=More than 100 years, 6=Don’t know 1 Value 6 (Don’t know) is removed from mean and SD calculation to capture mean and standard deviation of the time scale responses. Average and most frequent response on all trends suggests somewhat immediate timeframe (1-20 years)

12. Possible responses: 1=1-10 years, 2=11-20 years, 3=21-50 years, 4=51-100 years, 5=More than 100 years, 6=Don’t know 1 Value 6 (Don’t know) is removed from mean and SD calculation to capture mean and standard deviation of the time scale responses. TrendTopicMean 1 ModeSD 1 n "don't know" responses #(%) Increase in small parcel sizeDevelopment and Ownership1.591,20.62192 (10.53%) Declining cold water fish populationsWater and Fisheries1.6510.79192 (10.53%) Uncertainty is increasingly recognizedClimate Change1.671,60.89197 (36.84%) Increasing diversity of expectations for recreational opportunitiesTourism and Recreation1.7220.67191 (5.26%) Changes in forest management and fire affecting wildlife habitat and populationsWildlife1.7810.94180 (0.00%) Increasing detachment from the natural environmentTourism and Recreation1.8211.19192 (10.53%) Shifts in mega-faunaWildlife1.8320.62191 (5.26%) Decreasing anglersWater and Fisheries1.8721.06194 (21.05%) Changing forest productsForest Products1.8920.68191 (5.26%) Species shift and phenological changesClimate Change2.281,31.23181 (5.26%) Long-term landscape scale homogenizationEcological Health and Condition2.5561.37176 (35.29%) continued… Elevation of mining as a new resource economy 1.12 Hard rock / new mining 1.06 From first part of the table…. SD 1 A divergence on when people perceived the key trend would become relevant or important. Summary Table : For this trend, what is the crucial time frame? (pg 54-55)

13. Time Frame Question Summary Average and most frequent response on all trends suggests somewhat immediate time frame (1-20 years) A divergence on perspectives on some trends as to when it would become relevant or important Increasing detachment from the natural environment Decreasing anglers Species shift and phenological changes Long-term landscape scale homogenization Elevation of mining as a new resource economy Hard rock / new mining

14. Keypad Voting Results Question 2: How important is it to address this trend in the Northeast Landscape Plan Update? 1.Not important 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Very Important

15. Summary Table : How important is it to address [name of trend] and its implications in the Northeast Landscape Plan Update? (pg 56-57) Possible responses: scale of 1-10, 1=not important, 10=very important TrendTopicMeanModeSDn Changing markets resulting in changing managementEconomic8.50101.4616 Not as effective in implementation of the NE Landscape PlanAdministration and Funding8.26102.2119 Increases in insect outbreaks and new insects due to climate change and other factorsInvasive species8.16101.9819 Declining forest products industryForest Products8.12102.6219 Increased use of forest management guidelinesWater and Fisheries8.11102.1119 Need for more collaborationAdministration and Funding8.02102.3019 Need for collaborationWildlife8.00102.2419 Species shift and phenological changesClimate Change7.8982.2619 Declining moose populationsWildlife7.8482.3419 Increase in mining pressureDevelopment and Ownership7.74102.7019 Increasing awareness of the need for managementForest Products7.748,102.0819 Changes in forest management and fire affecting wildlife habitat and populationsWildlife7.6882.1119 Positive feedbacks between invasives plus interactions with human disturbancesInvasive species7.5382.3719 Increased tribal capacity to exercise vested rights on the landscapeTribal Trends7.53102.6517 Increase in small parcelsDevelopment and Ownership7.47102.6119 Increasing water temperatureWater and Fisheries7.3782.5419 Increased political assertion by tribesTribal Trends7.26103.1819 Increasing storm intensityWater and Fisheries6.72103.1018 Declining cold water fish populationsWater and Fisheries6.63103.1719

16. Possible responses: scale of 1-10, 1=not important, 10=very important TrendTopicMeanModeSDn Ecological classification systems used by managers differEcological Health and Condition6.58103.6919 Elevation of mining as a new resource economyEconomic6.58103.5519 Shifts in mega-faunaWildlife6.5382.4619 Uncertainty is increasingly recognizedClimate Change6.26103.3319 Increasing diversity of expectations for recreational opportunitiesTourism and Recreation5.896,71.8118 Hard rock / new miningDemographics5.80103.5419 Changing forest productsForest Products5.6852.4319 Long-term landscape scale homogenizationEcological Health and Condition5.215,103.5817 Increasing detachment from the natural environmentTourism and Recreation5.1232.6919 Aging populationDemographics4.5882.6519 Decreasing anglersWater and Fisheries3.1112.5418 continued… Summary Table : How important is it to address [name of trend] and its implications in the Northeast Landscape Plan Update? (pg 56-57)

17. Possible responses: scale of 1-10, 1=not important, 10=very important TrendTopicMeanModeSDn Changing markets resulting in changing managementEconomic8.50101.4616 Not as effective in implementation of the NE Landscape PlanAdministration and Funding8.26102.2119 Increases in insect outbreaks and new insects due to climate change and other factorsInvasive species8.16101.9819 Declining forest products industryForest Products8.12102.6219 Increased use of forest management guidelinesWater and Fisheries8.11102.1119 Need for more collaborationAdministration and Funding8.02102.3019 Need for collaborationWildlife8.00102.2419 Species shift and phenological changesClimate Change7.8982.2619 Declining moose populationsWildlife7.8482.3419 Increase in mining pressureDevelopment and Ownership7.74102.7019 Increasing awareness of the need for managementForest Products7.748,102.0819 Changes in forest management and fire affecting wildlife habitat and populationsWildlife7.6882.1119 Positive feedbacks between invasives plus interactions with human disturbancesInvasive species7.5382.3719 Increased tribal capacity to exercise vested rights on the landscapeTribal Trends7.53102.6517 Increase in small parcelsDevelopment and Ownership7.47102.6119 Increasing water temperatureWater and Fisheries7.3782.5419 Increased political assertion by tribesTribal Trends7.26103.1819 Increasing storm intensityWater and Fisheries6.72103.1018 Declining cold water fish populationsWater and Fisheries6.63103.1719 Summary Table : How important is it to address [name of trend] and its implications in the Northeast Landscape Plan Update? (pg 56-57)

18. Possible responses: scale of 1-10, 1=not important, 10=very important TrendTopicMeanModeSDn Ecological classification systems used by managers differEcological Health and Condition6.58103.6919 Elevation of mining as a new resource economyEconomic6.58103.5519 Shifts in mega-faunaWildlife6.5382.4619 Uncertainty is increasingly recognizedClimate Change6.26103.3319 Increasing diversity of expectations for recreational opportunitiesTourism and Recreation5.896,71.8118 Hard rock / new miningDemographics5.80103.5419 Changing forest productsForest Products5.6852.4319 Long-term landscape scale homogenizationEcological Health and Condition5.215,103.5817 Increasing detachment from the natural environmentTourism and Recreation5.1232.6919 Aging populationDemographics4.5882.6519 Decreasing anglersWater and Fisheries3.1112.5418 continued… Average vote for nearly all of the trends (28 of 30) is five or greater, indicating many respondents felt that the trends identified in this process are relatively important to address in the NE Landscape Plan Update. Summary Table : How important is it to address [name of trend] and its implications in the Northeast Landscape Plan Update? (pg 56-57)

19. Northeast Landscape Plan Update Question Summary Many respondents felt that most of the trends identified in this process are relatively important to address in the NE Landscape Plan Update Top trends are related to forest health and forest industry, or collaboration and management Notably, mining is present among those issues deemed most important Administration and funding issues rose to the top as key issues to be addressed in the plan update, with both of the associated trends showing up among the top 6 trends

20. Closing Discussion Questions Is there anything that surprised you related to the results of the discussion? Are there important trends that are missing from these topical areas that need to be addressed? Among the trends identified by the groups, where is there significant uncertainty about the trend or its potential implications and what is the source of this uncertainty? Missing political trends Will [the authors of the Northeast Landscape Plan Update] look at the change in topics between the past plan and the new plan? Time frames are difficult to interpret; are we voting on when a trend will occur or when to address? Difference in perception of trends by public or private land owners

21. Workshop Purpose Generate a list of key trends and implications Provide a prioritized list of trends to be addressed in the update process, and Allow participants to actively participate in framing potential content for the Northeast Landscape Plan Update.

22. Report was emailed to all planning committee members and will be posted at: http://www.frc.state.mn.us/initiatives_llm_committees_northeast.html http://www.frc.state.mn.us/initiatives_llm_committees_northeast.html Questions / Comments?