1. ADAPTATION BY CANADIAN AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATIC CHANGE: STATUS AND NEEDS Prepared for: Senate of Canada, Standing Committee on Agriculture and Forestry Prepared by: Mike Brklacich Dept. of Geography & Environmental Studies Global Environmental Change & Human Security Project Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario Date: 20 March 2003

2. PRESENTATION OVERVIEW Climatic Change Research Portfolio Need to Enhance Adaptation Perspectives Adaptation Potential of Canadian Agriculture: What Do We Know? Improving Our Understanding About & Potential for Adaptation to Climatic Change by Canadian Agriculture

3. THE CLIMATIC CHANGE RESEARCH PORTFOLIO Science of Climatic Change Impacts and Mitigation Adaptation

4. NEED FOR ENHANCING ADAPTATION PERSPECTIVES Climatic Perspectives Committed to Long-term Climatic Change Limitations of Mitigation Measures Carbon-based Fuels & Economic Development

5. NEED FOR ENHANCING ADAPTATION PERSPECTIVES (Cont’d) Agricultural Perspectives Key Economic Sector Sector Under Extreme Stress Need to Reduce Adaptation Pathway Shocks Addressing societal concerns regarding climatic change will require a blend of adaptation & mitigation strategies!

6. AGRICULTUTRAL ADAPTATION TO CLIMATIC CHANGE Three Approaches for Assessing Adaptation Learning From the Past Modelling Technical Feasibility & Efficiency Setting Climatic Change Within the Broader Agricultural Context

7. I: LEARNING FROM THE PAST Major Adaptation Categories Technological Developments Crop development, information systems, resource management innovations Public Programs Agricultural subsidy & support, resource management programs (Sources: Brklacich et al. 1997; Smit & Skinner, 2002)

8. LEARNING FROM THE PAST (cont’d) Production Practices Farm practices, land use, irrigation Financial Management Crop insurance, income stabilization, diversify income sources

9. ATTRIBUTES OF “LEARNING FROM THE PAST” Comprehensive Credibility in Agricultural Community Multiple Stressors Considered Illustrates Adaptation Part of Agriculture Considers Climate Variability Not Change

10. II: MODELLING TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY & EFFICIENCY Crop & Farm Modelling of Selected Adaptation Options Coverage to Date: Peace River, Prairies, Central Canada Major Cereals Focus Selected Options (earlier seeding, irrigation, winter cereals,alternative cultivars) Sources: Brklacich et al 1997, NRCan, 2002.

11. MODELLING TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY & EFFICIENCY (cont’d) Preliminary Results Prairies & Peace River Longer season cultivars reduce wheat yield impacts. Winter wheat opportunities expand in southern prairies. Irrigation to offset moisture stress. Central Canada New field crop opportunities in northern areas. Fruit & vegetable prospects enhanced in southern areas. Irrigation to offset moisture stress.

12. ATTRIBUTES OF “MODELLING FEASIBILITY & EFFICIENCY” Multiple Climatic Change Scenarios & Adaptation Options Considered Applicable to Broad Areas Replicable Studies Spot Checks of Selected Regions & Crops Practicality & Acceptability Untested

13. III: CLIMATIC CHANGE IN A BROADER CONTEXT Situated Research Multiple Stressors Coverage to Date Farm-level Studies Spot Checks in Prairies, Ontario & Quebec Sources: Various studies from U of Lethbridge, U of Guelph, Carleton U, & U of Montreal

14. CLIMATIC CHANGE IN A BROADER CONTEXT (cont’d) Preliminary Findings Complex Adaptation Processes Differential Vulnerabilities Adaptive Capacity as a System Property Adaptation Strategies to Multiple Stressors Climate Extremes vs Norms

15. ATTRIBUTES OF “BROADER CONTEXT” Climatic Change Set Within Multiple Stressors Differential Vulnerabilities Key Comprehensive Adaptation Strategies Limited Coverage to Date Farm-level Adaptation Focus Spot Checks vs Systematic Assessments

16. IMPROVING UNDERSTANDING OF ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATIC CHANGE Recognize Adaptation as Equal Partner in Portfolio of Climatic Change Studies Enhance & Stabilize Adaptation Funding Strategic Grants, Agency Grants Encourage “Plough to Plate” Studies Linkages within/to Agricultural Sector Develop Comprehensive, Standardized Agricultural Adaptation – Climatic Change Program Country-wide Comparative Assessments

17. IMPROVING UNDERSTANDING OF ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATIC CHANGE (cont’d) Improve Understanding of Differential Vulnerabilities Conceptual Developments, Measurement Promote Situated Adaptation Studies Contextualize Adaptation, Threshold Triggers, Institutional Fit & Roles Establish Overall Goal: Adaptation as Means to Reduce Agricultural Sector Vulnerability and Improve Resilience to Climatic Variability & Change