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Hakimi Consultants
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Capital : Rs 1000000 Profit : Rs 264615.25 Returns : 26.46 % Rank: 2nd Turnover: Rs 4400000(Approx) Scripts Traded: 52 Performance
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Macroeconomic News and Index Tends Indian Markets are seen following global cues Tracking the European and US indices – DAX, FTSE,NASDAQ, DJIA Tracking the Asian indices – Nikkei, Hang-Seng Tracking the RBI regulatory changes and announcements 27 th Oct - EU Sets 50% Greek Write-down, $1.4T in Crisis Fight. US, Europeans markets up Indian markets closed 28 th Oct – Asian indices up Gap up opening in SENSEX and Nifty expected Place orders for long positions in pre market opening in metals and IT stocks 25 th Oct – RBI announces Savings rate deregulation 25 th Oct – Positive for banks with low CASA deposits. Yes Bank up by 7% DCB up by 3% Yes Bank – 25 th Oct Bought @ Rs. 294.3 Sold @ Rs. 302.8 Intraday High-Low : Rs 276.2/306.3 Hindalco – 28 th Oct Bought @ Rs. 132.1 Sold @ Rs. 139.7 Intraday High-Low : Rs 130.3/143.6
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News and Momentum Trading Fortis Healthcare 1 st Nov – Fortis to acquire the international hospital assets of its promoters in Singapore for $665 million PNB – Q2 results 1 st Nov - PNB Q2 profit up 12%; beats estimates; Revenue inline. 1 st Nov - Stock up from Rs 979 to 1025 Following the latest market news and results: Tune in Online to NDTV Profit/CNBC-TV18 Corporate Announcements - http://www.moneycontrol.comhttp://www.moneycontrol.com Investors Guide – Economic Times Good Q2 results drives stock price up in the short term but the uptrend is temporary and prices tend to fall a bit later PNB – 1 st Nov Bought @ Rs. 978 Sold @ Rs. 1021 Intraday High-Low : Rs 976/1029 Fortis – 1 st Nov Bought @ Rs. 127 Sold @ Rs. 129.2 Intraday High-Low : Rs
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Orchid Chemicals Bought @ Rs. 162 Sold @ Rs. 175 Intraday High-Low : Rs 158.5/179.1 News and Momentum Trading Orissa Mineral – 25 th Oct Bought @ Rs. 46175 Sold @ Rs. 48752 Intraday High-Low : Rs 46000/50288.4 Orissa Mineral – Stock Split 1 st Nov – Board to consider Stock split; FV Rs.1 from FV Rs.10 Stock up 4% BEML – Q2 Results 28 th Oct Revenue for Q2 up 56%, Net profit up by 5 % Stock up 3.5% Vijaya Bank – Q2 Results 31 st Oct – 41% jump in Net Profits at Rs 203.53 crore Stock up by 7% BEML 28 th Oct - Bought @ Rs. 509.5 31 st Oct - Sold @ Rs. 524 Intraday High-Low : Rs 497.2/528.95 Vijaya Bank Bought @ Rs. 56 Sold @ Rs. 59.8 Intraday High-Low : Rs 55.1/61.65 Orchid Chemicals – Q2 results 1 st Nov Net profit of Rs 234.3 mn for the Q2, 2011 inline with estimates Stock up from Rs 159 to 176
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Follow the Bellwethers Bellwether stocks tend to lead the sector that it is in, along with the market as a whole Typically large-cap equities like Infosys, TCS, Reliance, HUL, Tata Motors, L&T. TCS – IT Bellwether and India’s largest software services exporter 17 th Oct - Reported a 15% year-on-year rise in second quarter net profit at Rs 2,439 crore, according to IFRS. Revenue in July-September was up 25% at Rs 11,634 crore. Lower than street expectations 18 th Oct - Led by 7% decline in TCS's scrip, the BSE- IT index also down by 3.05 per cent and the top loser among the 13 BSE sectoral indices Wipro, Infosys, HCL down by 2-3% Wipro Ltd Holding on 17 th Oct - 550 Shares 18 th Oct - Close long position in early trade @ Rs 349 Square-off at close @ Rs 344 Intraday High-Low : Rs 343.05/352
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Bottom Fishing and Value Buying Buying undervalued stocks in bearish markets at cheap valuations. Trading near 2 year lows Sound fundamentals and company is in geospatial space and it is having IP business moving up Shares touched lows after media rumors that promoters have pledged 92% of their holdings. Company clarifies that it was only 12% Consistently good results over the previous quarters Trading near 52 week lows Expected to have a good quarter Stock down over 26% from last year versus flat performance of peers 10-15% upside seen in Short- Medium Term Tea leaf prices expected to remain stable in the near term Rolta India Market Cap (Rs. in Cr.)1,322.10 Book Value117.82 EPS (TTM)24.11 Div Yield(%)4.00 P/BV0.63 52 Wk High/Low69.65/188.5 3 Yr High/Low40.7/202.85 1 Year Return %-53.50 P/E Ratio3.08 Tata Global Beverages Market Cap (Rs. in Cr.)5,652.21 Book Value63.27 EPS (TTM)3.61 Div Yield(%)2.2 P/BV1.34 52 Wk High/Low80.9/134 3 Yr High/Low136.5/44.2 1 Year Return %-26.9 P/E Ratio23.48 Buy @ Rs.72-75 Sell @ Rs.79-81 Buy @ Rs.83-86 Sell @ Rs.90-91
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Stock Trading below Rights Price Bajaj Hindustan 13 Sep 2011 - Company announced that it would raise Rs 1,644 crore through a rights issue under which two fresh equity shares would be given for every one shares held by shareholders at Rs 36 29 th Sep - Rights Issue closes 21 st Oct - Rights Issue closes 1 st Nov -Bajaj Hindustan allots right Equity shares Bajaj Hind– 25 th Oct Bought 2000 Shares @ Rs. 35.25 Bajaj Hind 31 st Oct - Sold 1000 Shares @ Rs. 38.1 1 st Nov - Sold 1000 Shares @ Rs. 38.4 Stocks experience a downtrend after shares have been allotted to applicants in Rights/FPO issues Selling shares just before allotment gives opportunity for buying back later at lower prices
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Diversification Diversify the portfolio to moderate and minimize the risk Spread out by different companies across sectors Limit exposure in a single company to maximum of 10% for Delivery trades and 20% for Intraday trades Limit exposure in a Sector to 40% intraday and 25% for Delivery trades Diversify trading strategies Capital: Rs 1000000 Maximum exposure : Bank of Baroda Delivery Trade: Rs 100000 Intraday: Rs 200000 Maximum exposure: Banking Sector Delivery Trade: Rs 250000 Intraday: Rs 400000 Segment Diversification: Large Caps: 30-35% | Mid Caps : 40-45% Small Caps: 25-30% | Avoid penny stocks
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Let Profits Run Stay with profitable trades as long as possible as generally the trend is likely to continue and increase the profits Include a notional trailing stop loss 3% below peak price. If price starts to reverse and falls by 3% from the peak taking away the accumulated profit, exit the position Lanco Infratech
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Sit on Cash Keep cash free for profitable stock opportunities If after 3 days the trade has not moved in the expected direction then get out Liquid cash - also a position Profit Booking Book out of profit positions is to release capital Close Position if the market moves against you 20% from peak profit point Cutting Losses Cut losses by moving out if the price fails to oblige Cash released can be used for other stocks Shorting position if losses exceed beyond 2% JP Associates – 1 st Nov Bought @ Rs. 79.1 Sold @ Rs. 77.8 Intraday High-Low : Rs 74.3/79.4
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My pick – Goodyear India Accumulate @ Rs.290-295 Month High - Low – Rs 290 – 324 Sell @ Rs.305-315 More of short-medium term strategy Buy on dips to book quick profits in short term Low risk - passive strategy Why do companies seek delisting? No need to disclose financials Can go with rising or reducing capital or even M&As without having to worry about approvals Zero or low debt in the books Goodyear graph CompanyPromoter Stake(%) Goodyear India74.00 Alfa Laval88.77 Astra Zeneca90.00 Elantas Beck88.55 Ineos ABS (India)83.33 Timken India80.02 Invest in Companies with High Promoter Holdings- Potential Delisting Candidates
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Trading in IPO listings Trading in newly listed companies not available Suggestions Stop Loss Crucial to preserving profits Prevents small losses from becoming disastrously large Does not require monitoring on a frequent basis how a stock is performing Short Selling – “Sell high, buy Low” Allows to profit from an overpriced or downward trending bear market Hedging tool - protecting other long positions with offsetting short positions Arbitrage Availability of trading on both BSE and NSE gives opens up the option for arbitrage Only BSE quotes available Adjustments for the following should be made Dividend Payouts Stock Splits Bonus Issue Brokerage Charges and Settlement Period Brokerage charges should be levied on transactions and 1 hour minimum restriction for holding shares after buying should be removed
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Thank You
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