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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook November 2002 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council
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Macroeconomic and Sector-level Performance
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U.S. Real GDP Growth
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World Real GDP Growth
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CBO Federal Budget Surplus
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U.S. Net Farm Income
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Prices Received Index
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Prospects for Cotton Production
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Southeast3,600 3,541 -0.2 Mid-South 4,595 3,730 -18.8 Southwest6,311 6,090 -3.5 West993 755 -24.0 ALL UPLAND 15,499 14,116 -8.9 ALL ELS270 265 -2.0 ALL COTTON15,769 14,381 -8.8 U.S. Cotton Plantings (Aug Crop Production) 20012002% Actual Estimated Change Actual Estimated Change Thousand Acres
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U.S. Cotton Planted Area
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Southeast751 542 634 Mid-South 734 783 699 Southwest482 529 475 West1,266 1,336 1,196 ALL UPLAND 694 653 641 ALL ELS1,254 1,263 1,095 ALL COTTON705 665 650 2002 U.S. Cotton Crop Yield Estimates 200120025-Yr. Actual Estimated Average Actual Estimated Average Lb. per Harvested Acre
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U.S. Cotton Yield per Harvested Acre
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U.S. Cotton Abandonment
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U.S. Cotton Production
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World Cotton Harvested Area
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World Cotton Production
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Outlook for Mill Use
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Real Exchange Rate Indices Source: Federal Reserve Board
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U.S. Cotton Textile & Apparel Imports
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U.S. Cotton Textile & Apparel Imports by Country of Origin
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U.S. Cotton Textile & Apparel Exports
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Monthly Net Imports of Cotton Textiles
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Net Domestic Cotton Consumption
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Monthly Net Domestic Consumption of Cotton
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Monthly Cotton Mill Use
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Average Daily Mill Use (Bales)
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U.S. Cotton Mill Use
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World Cotton Mill Use
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U.S. Export Potential
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U.S. Cotton Exports
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Top Customers for U.S. Raw Cotton 1990 County(000 Bales) Japan1,538 China1,347 Korea1,185 Indonesia 552 Italy 424 Taiwan 354 1990 County(000 Bales) Japan1,538 China1,347 Korea1,185 Indonesia 552 Italy 424 Taiwan 354 2002YTD Country(000 Bales) Mexico1,756 Indonesia 458 Canada 420 China 341 Korea 280 Japan 273
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Step 2 Payment Rate
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Foreign Mill Consumption less Production
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Chinese Net Trade
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India and Pakistan Net Trade
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Stocks, Prices, Returns
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Cotton Ending Stocks
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Cotton Prices
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Cotton Price and LDP
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December Cotton Futures
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Summary of the Supply & Demand Situation
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U.S. Supply and Demand Million Bales Beginning Stocks6.07.4 Production20.317.8 Imports0.00.0 Total Supply26.325.2 Mill Use7.77.7 Exports11.010.8 Total Offtake18.718.5 Ending Stocks7.46.8 Stocks-to-Use Ratio39.7%36.8% Million Bales Beginning Stocks6.07.4 Production20.317.8 Imports0.00.0 Total Supply26.325.2 Mill Use7.77.7 Exports11.010.8 Total Offtake18.718.5 Ending Stocks7.46.8 Stocks-to-Use Ratio39.7%36.8% 2001/022001/022002/03(p)2002/03(p)
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World Supply and Demand Million Bales Beginning Stocks42.747.5 Production98.488.1 Total Supply141.1135.6 Mill Use94.196.2 Ending Stocks47.540.0 Stocks-to-Use Ratio50.5%41.6% Million Bales Beginning Stocks42.747.5 Production98.488.1 Total Supply141.1135.6 Mill Use94.196.2 Ending Stocks47.540.0 Stocks-to-Use Ratio50.5%41.6% 2001/022001/022002/032002/03
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Prices of Other Commodities
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September Corn Futures
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November Soybean Futures
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Merchants Ginners Crushers Producers Cooperatives Warehouses Manufacturers
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