1. Restructuring HE System for 50 Million Enrolments in China in 2020 Wu Xiaofeng Chen Xin Wen Dongmao The IFE 2020 leadership Institute 06/0302009

2. Our Focus: the Challenges from HE Quantity the Gross Enrollment Rate in 2007: – 23% Total HE Enrolment in 2002 – 27 million In 2020 – 50 million or more

3. Total Enrollments of Regular HEIs In 2020 (in million)

4. Outline Background Shifting from dominant paradigm to emerging paradigm – Access – Capacity – Quality Implications Policy Implications

5. Part 1 Background Demands for HE – Demographic change – Expectations to HE Environment for HE – Economic Development – Disparity/Inequality – Globalization – Technology Development HE Structures and Capacity with Dominant Paradigm

6. Background(1): Demographic Change Background(1): Demographic Change 1.32 billion (2008) 1.39 billion (2020) One Child Policy

7. Population at various age groups from 2004 to 2020 Primary(6-11) Junior middle(12-14) Senior middle(15-17) Tertiary(18-22)

8. Expectations for HE Family Children’s future Government Transform population stress to human resources advantage Knowledge society/economy

9. Background(2): HE Environments Economic Development Disparity/Inequality Globalization Technology Development

10. The GDP per capita Growth

11. West Area Central Area East Area 3 2 1 64% of Land 4% of Population 36% of Land 96% of Population Hu HuanYong Line （黑河 —— 腾冲）

12. Income difference between rural area and urban area 1.86 3.23

13. Gini Coefficient

14. Globalization China and globalization The most fundamental challenge confronting HE in its history Competition locally and internationally

15. 1. IT development (PPT, Video, direct discussion via Internet); 2. Transportation development; Technology development

16. 1. IT development -we don’t need go to Institutions to have education; 2. Transportation development -we can go to institutions easily to have education; Providing more possibilities for people to get HE.

17. Background(3): HE Structures and Capacity with Dominant Paradigm 20072020 InstitutesEnrolmentInstitutesEnrolment Formal/ Informal Formal190820 353037 Informal4137 76413 Public/ private Public204522.7 378342 Private2764.3 5118

18. Expanding without structural change? – Campus? Land Building Facilities – Human Resources ? Another 1million have PHD? Another 1 million Staff? – Funding? – Function?

19. Access Study Graduate (job) Equity Access & Equity

20. Access challenges 1. Largest HE in the world; 2. HE chances for those who need (except 18-22 ages); 3. National exam based to ?

21. Income difference Income difference Urban-rural Urban-rural Ethnic minorities Ethnic minorities Gender Gender Age Age Access Equity

22. ItemSolutions Income differencePublic and private sectors Urban-ruralMore public education resources to rural area Ethnic minoritiesQuota GenderEqual chance for secondary education AgeOff-campus study

23. Globalization Globalization Multi-culture Multi-culture Diversity Diversity Access Equity

24. Having more foreign students Having more foreign students Sending more Chinese students studying overseas Sending more Chinese students studying overseas Support international institutions Support international institutions Access Equity

25. Part 2 Restructuring(2): Capacity Resource sharing – Department/grogram level – Institution level – System level Public-private Partnership Formal-informal Partnership HEIs - Community partnership Global Partnership

26. Department level

27. Institutional level

28. System level

30. Country level

31. Public/Private Partnership for Chinese HE in 2020 Sector public founding High Private Public China low China

32. Capacity Campus Land Building Facilities Human Resources Funding Function

33. Part 2 Restructuring(3): Quality Current policy and practice Quality assurance of undergraduate Education Higher Education Evaluation Center (2002) 592 HEIs evaluated (2003-07)

34. Positive Impact Physical capacity Financial capacity Human resources capacity Managerial capacity

35. Problems Results not convincing Single standard and uniform indicators Burden for HEIs Falsification

36. Restructuring of QA Integration of government and associations Diversified standards and indicators Different stakeholders’ involvement Students focused

37. Part 3: Policy Implications Public funding for Private HEIs/Informal HEIs – Need based Loan/Grant Legislation for Resource sharing – Awards/ Penalty Credits transfer for students mobility Flexible Salary for Faculty mobility

38. One World One Dream http://you.video.sina.com.cn/b/10803872- 1270281574.html

39. EWC, Hawaii One World One Center