1. Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont Beyond Environmentalism Envisioning a Sustainable and Desirable Future Robert Costanza Gund Professor of Ecological Economics and Director, Gund Institute of Ecological Economics Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources University of Vermont Burlington, VT 05401 http://www.uvm.edu/giee

2. In their essay “The Death of Environmentalism,” Michael Shellenberger and Ted Nordhaus identified a critical missing element in the environmental movement. Despite the extreme threats to our future, they claimed that “not one of America’s environmental leaders is articulating a vision of the future commensurate with the magnitude of the crisis.” Environmentalism has instead relied on a negative vision, a complaint-based style of activism that fails to engage with the public. It has become too focused on technical policy fixes and single-issue politics and is “no longer capable of dealing with the world’s most serious ecological crisis.”

3. The object of this seminar series is to move beyond the negative environmentalism of the past by creating a positive, detailed, shared vision of a sustainable and desirable future—a future in which living in harmony with nature is not a sacrifice, but an improvement in everyone’s quality of life; a future that can captivate and motivate the public; a future that we would be proud to leave to our grandchildren. Until we create and widely share this vision, we have no hope of achieving it.

5. Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont

6. Growing Economic Subsystem Recycled Matter Energy Resources Energy Resources Solar Energy Waste Heat "Empty World" Sink Functions Source Functions FInite Global Ecosystem

7. Anthroposphere Marc Imhoff Biospheric Sciences Branch NASA

8. Empty World Energy Planning?

9. Labor Land Economic Process Goods and Services Cultural Norms and Policy Individual Utility/welfare Consumption (based on fixed preferences) Improvement Education, Training, Research Building Investment (decisions about, taxes government spending, education, science and technology policy, etc., based on existing property rights regimes) Property rights PrivatePublic GNP Manufactured capital ”Empty World" Model of the Economy Perfect Substitutability Between Factors

10. Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet

11. World Primary Energy Supply by Source, 1850-1997

13. OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS 2004 Scenario Updated by Colin J. Campbell, 2004-05-15

14. March 2Richard Heinberg New “After the party: energy in a sustainable and desirable future”

15. Atmosphere NCAR can now run these kinds of models for more than 1000 years

16. Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) data on marine and terrestrial plant productivity Biosphere

18. Growing Economic Subsystem Recycled Matter Resources Solar Energy Waste Heat "Full World" Energy Energy Resources FInite Global Ecosystem Sink Functions Source Functions

19. Human Capital Economic Production Process Goods and Services Evolving Cultural Norms and Policy Well Being (Individual and Community) Consumption (based on changing, adapting preferences) Education, training, research. Building Investment (decisions about, taxes community spending, education, science and technology policy, etc., based on complex property rights regimes) IndividualPublic GNP Wastes Common Ecological services/ amenities having, being - having, - being negative impacts on all forms of capital being, doing, relating Restoration, Conservation Natural Capital Manufactured Capital having positive impacts on human capital capacity doing, relating Complex property rights regimes Solar Energy SocialCapital Limited Substitutability Between Capital Forms “Full World” Model of the Ecological Economic System Waste heat Institutional rules, norms, etc. Materially closed earth system From: Costanza, R., J. C. Cumberland, H. E. Daly, R. Goodland, and R. Norgaard. 1997. An Introduction to Ecological Economics. St. Lucie Press, Boca Raton, 275 pp.

21. Empty World Vision Full World Vision

22. Changes in human well-being under Millennium Assessment scenarios –In three of the four MA scenarios, between three and five of the components of well-being (material needs, health, security, social relations, freedom) improve between 2000 and 2050 –In one scenario (Order from Strength) conditions are projected to decline, particularly in developing countries (Big Government, B1) (Mad Max, A2) (Ecotopia, B2) (Star Trek, A1)

23. February 2nd Rik Leemans, Wageningen University “Scenarios of a sustainable and desirable future: lessons from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment”

25. Donella (Dana) Meadows 1941-2001

26. Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont 1. In order to effectively envision, it is necessary to focus on what one really wants, not what one will settle for, i.e. Really WantSettle For Self esteemFancy car SerenityDrugs HealthMedicine Human HappinessGNP Permanent ProsperityUnsustainable Growth 2. A vision should be judged by the clarity of its goals, not the clarity of its implementation path. Holding to the vision and being flexible about the path is often the only way to find the path. 3. Responsible vision must acknowledge, but not get crushed by, the physical and political constraints of the real world 4. It is critical for visions to be shared because only shared visions can be responsible. 5. Vision has to be flexible and evolving. Thus the process of envisioning is at least as important as the particular visions themselves. Principles of Effective Envisioning* *from Meadows, D. 1996. Envisioning a Sustainable World. pp. 117-126 In: Getting Down to Earth: Practical Applications of Ecological Economics, edited by R. Costanza, O. Segura, and J. Martinez-Alier. Washington D.C.: Island Press.

27. Current Situation: Lack of Shared Vision

28. Shared Envisioning

30. Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont Envisioning a Sustainable and Desirable America World View Humans as a part of nature Steady state, ecological economy Goal quality of life rather than consumption Built Capital Runs on renewable energy and natural capital Emphasis on quality rather than quantity Small communities rule (both within and outside cities) The vision so far (see http://www.uvm.edu/giee/ESDA) Natural Capital Protected as essential life support Depletion heavily taxed Human Capital Balance of synthesis, analysis, and communication Meaningful, creative work and leisure Stable populations Social Capital A primary source of productivity and well-being “Strong” democracy

32. Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont The Challenge: Create a shared vision of a sustainable and desirable future