1. Climatic variability and climate risk in agriculture in the Mediterranean area Pierpaolo Duce CNR-IBIMET, Sassari, ITALY Antonio Arca, Donatella Spano DESA, University of Sassari, ITALY Simona Canu, Andrea Motroni SAR - SARDEGNA, Sassari, ITALY Gabriele Antolini, Franco Zinoni ARPA-SM, Bologna, ITALY WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE 14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy

2. Climatic Variations – Background IPCC Working Group II, 2001

3. Climatic Variations – Background IPCC Working Group II, 2001

4. 17 Temperature and Precipitation – Italy - 1867-1995 Yearly and seasonal trends (Brunetti et al., 2000) b ±  b T (°C/100 y) P (mm/100 y) North 0.4 ± 0.1 -47 ± Year South 0.7 ± 0.1 -104 ± 12 Climatic Variations – Background Winter 0.7 ± 0.1 8 ± 7 0.9 ± 0.1 -16 ± 7 North South Summer 0.2 ± 0.1 7 ± 6 0.5 ± 0.1 -17 ± 4 North South -

5. Objectives to develop a methodology for assessing climatic risk based on bioclimatic indexes  to develop a methodology for assessing climatic risk based on bioclimatic indexes to evaluate the potential effects of climatic variations on agricultural production  to evaluate the potential effects of climatic variations on agricultural production CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE RISK IN AGRICULTURE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AREA

6. Objectives to develop a methodology for assessing climatic risk based on bioclimatic indexes  to develop a methodology for assessing climatic risk based on bioclimatic indexes to evaluate the potential effects of climatic variations on agricultural production  to evaluate the potential effects of climatic variations on agricultural production CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE RISK IN AGRICULTURE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AREA

7. to obtain maps of climatic risk for agriculture based on past and future climatic variability  to obtain maps of climatic risk for agriculture based on past and future climatic variability Objectives CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE RISK IN AGRICULTURE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AREA

8. Data Collection soil, land cover, climate, climatic scenarios A2 and B2 1) Data Collection soil, land cover, climate, climatic scenarios A2 and B2 2) Land Capability for Agriculture (LCA) classifications (based on pedology, climate and land cover) 3) Assessment of current and future climatic risk for agricultural areas and crops Activities CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE RISK

9. Data Geology, pedology, morphology, etc. Climate (1961-2000 Sardinia, 1951-2000 Emilia-Romagna) temperature and rainfall series - complete Climate (1961-2000 Sardinia, 1951-2000 Emilia-Romagna) temperature and rainfall series - incomplete Land Cover Map GISArcGIS CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE RISK

10. Methods LCA Classifications Modification of the Soil Map of Sardinia and Emilia-Romagna Pedological LCA Classification Bioclimatic index calculation – Cluster Analysis (weather stations) Climatic LCA Classification Climatic data mapping (10 km x 10 km grid) Bioclimatic index calculation over the same grid Bioclimatic index calculation over the same grid Climatic LCA Classification for each cell of the grid Climatic LCA Classification for each cell of the grid Overlay Pedological LCA – Climatic LCA Pedo-climatic LCA Classification

11. Methods LCA Classifications Modification of the Soil Map of Sardinia and Emilia-Romagna Pedological LCA Classification Bioclimatic index calculation – Cluster Analysis (weather stations) Climatic LCA Classification Climatic data mapping (10 km x 10 km grid) Bioclimatic index calculation over the same grid Climatic LCA Classification for each cell of the grid Overlay Pedological LCA – Climatic LCA Pedo-climatic LCA Classification

12. Methods LCA Classifications Modification of the Soil Map of Sardinia and Emilia-Romagna Pedological LCA Classification Bioclimatic index calculation – Cluster Analysis (weather stations) Climatic LCA Classification Climatic data mapping (10 km x 10 km grid) Bioclimatic index calculation over the same grid Bioclimatic index calculation over the same grid Climatic LCA Classification for each cell of the grid Climatic LCA Classification for each cell of the grid Overlay Pedological LCA – Climatic LCA Pedo-climatic LCA Classification

13. Methods LCA Classifications Modification of the Soil Map of Sardinia and Emilia-Romagna Pedological LCA Classification Bioclimatic index calculation – Cluster Analysis (weather stations) Climatic LCA Classification Climatic data mapping (10 km x 10 km grid) Bioclimatic index calculation over the same grid Climatic LCA Classification for each cell of the grid Overlay Pedological LCA – Climatic LCA Pedo-climatic LCA Classification Pedo-climatic LCA Classification

14. LCA classification map Pedological LCA classification map Climatic LCA classification map Climatic LCA classification map Pedo-climatic LCA classification map Pedo-climatic LCA classification map Climatic Risk Assessment Climatic Risk Index Classification Analysis of spatial and temporal variability Bioclimatic Indexes CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE RISK

15. PEDOLOGICAL LCA MAP SARDINIA 8 classes Class 1: no or very minor limitations to agriculture....... Class 8: no agriculture use Class 1-4: Land suitable for agriculture 23.7% Class 5-8: Land not suitable for agriculture 75.4%

16. PEDOLOGICAL LCA MAP - EMILIA-ROMAGNA

17. Bioclimatic Index Calculations HEAT UNIT CUMULATIVE DEGREE-DAYS  °D lower quartile WATER LIMITATIONS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL SOIL MOISTURE DEFICIT MaxPSMD median CLIMATIC LCA MAP  365 1 m i T    T o  1 i i MAX    ETo i P

18. Bioclimatic Index Calculations HEAT UNIT CUMULATIVE DEGREE-DAYS  °D lower quartile WATER LIMITATIONS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL SOIL MOISTURE DEFICIT MAXIMUM POTENTIAL SOIL MOISTURE DEFICIT MaxPSMD median CLIMATIC LCA MAP  365 1 m i T    T o  1 i i MAX    ETo i P

19. CLIMATIC LCA MAP Bioclimatic Index Analysis

20. uta elmas s. giusta s. giovanni coghinas sassari (serra secca) budoni (c.ra) olbia campuomu castiadas ottava piscinamanna iglesias capo carbonara rifornitore tirso decimomannu muravera bosa corongiu capo bellavista palmas suergiu orosei capo frasca escalaplano sanluri o.n.c. santa lucia armungia alghero villacidro f.c. calagonone carloforte mogoro (diga) oschiri villavovatulo macomer nuoro bidighinzu ozieri lanusei meanasardo jerzu mandas f. c. nurri f. c. cuglieri vallicciola genna-silana santa sofia col. penale sarcidano sos canales (diga) ala' dei sardi desulo is cannoneris tempio villanova monteleone asinara 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 -1000-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-1000 MaxPSMD (mm)  D 2.1 1 2.2 3.1 3.2 4.1 4.2 5.1 7.1 6.1 7.2 6.2 5.2 CLIMATIC LCA MAP Climatic LCA Classification

21. Max Potential Soil Moisture Deficit 1961-1990 Max Potential Soil Moisture Deficit 1971-2000

22. Climatic Land Capability 1971-2000 Climatic Land Capability 1961-1990 Prime Classes Non Prime Classes Prime Classes Non Prime Classes

23. PEDO-CLIMATIC LCA MAP Pedo-climatic LCA Classification Pedo-climatic LCA class Pedological LCA classes Climatic LCA classes most suitable moderately suitable less suitable not suitable 1 to 4 4-6, 4-8, 6 6-7, 6-8 8 1, 2 1, 2 2, 3 1 Prime + 3 2, 4 1, 4 2 -

24. most suitable (23.7%) moderately suitable (27.7%) less suitable (17.4%) not suitable (31.2%) PEDO-CLIMATIC LCA MAP(1961-2000) Pedo-Climatic Land Capability 1961-2000 most suitable moderately suitable least suitable not suitable Classes

25. (1971-2000) PEDO-CLIMATIC LCA MAP (1971-2000) most suitable mod. suitable less suitable not suitable

26. D1 D2D3 D4 D5 D6 Cell #1 -160-340-440-540-640 Climate Variability Analysis CLIMATIC RISK MAP

27. Climate Variability Analysis CLIMATIC RISK MAP

28. Risk Index = Class D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 coefficient 0 0.05 0.5 0.75 0.9 1 Cell # D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 1 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.10 0.50 0.10 2 0.00 0.07 0.27 0.17 0.50 3 0.00 0.07 0.10 0.20 0.17 0.47 4 0.00 0.07 0.23 0.17 0.47 5 0.00 0.07 0.20 0.47 f Climate Variability Analysis and Climate Risk Assessment CLIMATIC RISK MAP

29. Risk Class Risk Index Null 0 - 0.25 Low 0.25 - 0.50 Moderate 0.50 - 0.75 High 0.75 - 1.00 Climate Risk Assessment CLIMATIC RISK MAP

30. Climatic Risk 1961-1990 Climatic Risk 1971-2000 null low moderate high

31. 71-00 GDD: 51-80, 61-90, 71-00

32. 71-00 Climatic LCA: 51-80, 61-90, 71-00

33. FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS Data obtained from CNR – IBIMET, Florence Data obtained from CNR – IBIMET, Florence Sub-project 1: High resolution future climate scenarios Climate Model developed by Climate Model developed by Hadley Centre (Met. Office, UK) HADCM3 Model (AOGCM) Climate scenarios A2 and B2 Period 2005-2099 A2 B2

34. Growing Degree Days 1971-2000 Growing Degree Days 2070-2099 (Scenario B2) GDD

35. Max Potential Soil Moisture Deficit 1971-2000 Max Potential Soil Moisture Deficit 2070-2099 (Scenario A2)

36. Climatic Land Capability 1971-2000 Climatic Land Capability 2070-2099 (Scenario A2) Prime Classes Non Prime Classes Prime Classes Non Prime Classes

37. PEDO-CLIMATIC LCA MAP(1961-2000) most suitable (23.7%) moderately suitable (27.7%) less suitable (17.4%) not suitable (31.2%) Pedo-Climatic Land Capability 1961-2000 most suitable moderately suitable least suitable not suitable Classes

38. PEDO-CLIMATIC LCA MAP (2070-2099 – A2) most suitable (10.5%) moderately suitable (19.3%) less suitable (38.4%) not suitable (31.8%) Pedo-Climatic Land Capability 2070-2099 (Scenario A2) most suitable moderately suitable least suitable not suitable Classes

39. PEDO-CLIMATIC LCA MAP (2070-2099 – B2) most suitable (14.0%) moderately suitable (19.7%) less suitable (35.4%) not suitable (30.9%) Pedo-Climatic Land Capability 2070-2099 (Scenario B2) most suitable moderately suitable least suitable not suitable Classes

40. Pedo-climatic LCA classes Surface area relative to the total area (%) 1961-2000Scenario A2Scenario B2 most suitable23.710.514.0 moderately suitable 27.719.319.7 least suitable17.438.435.4 not suitable31.231.830.9

41. Conclusions To determine climatic risk for agriculture, climatic variability should be included in the LCA methodology The methodology can be easily applied to actual and future climate CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE RISK

42. Conclusions To determine climatic risk for agriculture, climatic variability should be included in the LCA methodology The methodology can be easily applied to actual and future climate CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE RISK

43. Conclusions By adjusting bioclimatic indexes, the methodology can be applied to different climatic regions Limitations of the results mainly depend on spatial resolution of input data and approximations derived from empirical analysis Limitations of the results mainly depend on spatial resolution of input data and approximations derived from empirical analysis CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE RISK

44. Conclusions By adjusting bioclimatic indexes, the methodology can be applied to different climatic regions Limitations of the results mainly depend on spatial resolution of input data and approximations derived from empirical analysis Limitations of the results mainly depend on spatial resolution of input data and approximations derived from empirical analysis CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE RISK

45. THANKS

46. Climatic Risk 1971-2000 Climatic Risk 2070-2099 (Scenario B2) null low moderate high null low moderate high