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Published byVivien Melton Modified over 9 years ago
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Opatija Tanker Chartering Report October 2008
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Tanker Market Volatile 2005-20072007-2008 BDTI- 60%+ 70% BCTI- 61%+ 82%
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Baltic Dirty Tanker Index January 2005-October 2008
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Baltic Clean Tanker Index January 2005-October 2008
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Tanker Chartering Report Bunker Prices in Rotterdam Rose from $390 to $557 per tonne Plus 45.5% Peaking @ $729.50 July ’08 Now $357
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Tanker Chartering Report Global Oil Demand up 1.3% yoy Global Oil Demand up 1.3% yoy Actual +0.97 (1.5m) b/d 2007 Actual +0.97 (1.5m) b/d 2007 +0.43 (2.2m) b/d 2008 +0.43 (2.2m) b/d 2008 Oil Price $90/bbl 2009 Oil Price $90/bbl 2009 Now $72 Now $72
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Tanker Chartering Report Low level of oil stocks – worldwide Heavy refinery maintenance High USA demand after hurricane damage Increased OPEC output/oil on water Japan + China restocking Hebei Spirit – December 9 2007
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Tanker Chartering Report China + 4.6% yoy driven by China + 4.6% yoy driven by Car ownership + 1,000 cars per day air travel constructionagriculturepetrochemicals oil stocks
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Tanker Chartering Report Oil Demand (2007) India+5.0% North America+0.47% Europe-2.2%
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Tanker Chartering Report Clean Tanker Trades Clean Tanker Trades Directionless despite Refinery problems in the Atlantic basin. More exports from Europe Congestion problems in discharge areas India increasingly a supplier to Europe and Asia
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Tanker Chartering Report Growth of tanker fleet 2.7% dwt in first Growth of tanker fleet 2.7% dwt in first 9 months of 2008 (net) 9 months of 2008 (net) 66 single hull tankers gone for conversion to Storage, FPSO or VLOCs 66 single hull tankers gone for conversion to Storage, FPSO or VLOCs Double Hull Fleet = 76% of existing fleet Double Hull Fleet = 76% of existing fleet
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Tanker Chartering Report VLCC average earnings: VLCC average earnings: –2006$60,289 –2007$54,979 –2008$100,500 (to date) –3 Oct$85,693
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Tanker Chartering Report Future influences (Short Term): Future influences (Short Term):Alternative Suppliers & pipelines Fuel/coal/gas Response to “green” legislation
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Tanker Chartering Report Future influences (long term): Future influences (long term): 15 years/+ end of production from the largest fields found in last 40 yrs: 15 years/+ end of production from the largest fields found in last 40 yrs: North Sea/Alaska/Sakhalin New deep water finds: Brazil/Gulf of Mexico Brazil/Gulf of Mexico
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Tanker Chartering Report Future influences (Long Term): Future influences (Long Term): Current finds are smaller capacity – indicating maintenance of high oil price = $ ??? or no return to low oil price = $ 20
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Tanker Market Lookout For the Hurricane!
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