1. Persistence in High School and College The Future of Children April 30, 2010 Transition to Adulthood End of Adolescence to Adult Independence MacArthur Foundation Network on Adult Transitions and Public Policy Connie Flanagan Penn State University

2. The Changing Transition to Adulthood: Pattern from Post WWII through 1960’s Markers of Status Attainment - Orderly Sequence Complete education Full time job Marriage and Family Second Half of the 20 th Century Longer Age 18?, 25?, 30? Less orderly sequence Less differentiated by gender

3. Completing the Adulthood Transition in 1960 and 2000 Leaving home, finishing school, becoming financially independent, getting married and having a child Furstenberg, et. al. in Contexts, Summer, 2004 Notes: Data are from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series extracts (IPUMS) of the 1960 and 2000 U.S. Censuses. Men are defined as financially independent if they are in the labor force; women who have completed all transition except employment in the labor force are considered financially independent. 9% 44% 65% 2% 13% 31% 29% 68% 77% 6% 25% 46%

4. Changes in nature of work Less predictable - Career planning ? For most – career ladder – outdated model Jobs – shorter tenure, part time, contract work, fewer benefits Between 1970’s – 1990’s  Slow growth in median earnings  Privatization of Risk Management  Decline in employer provided health insurance and pensions  Individuals “on their own’ to manage uncertainty

5. Institutional and Policy Mismatch: Inequalities by Social Class, Race/Ethnicity Policies Oriented – 18 year old = adult Vulnerable Groups – Eligibility Cliff – Systems of Care Foster Care, Juvenile Justice, Mental Health, Disabilities Default Institutions that Scaffold Young Adults FAMILIES  40% youth return home at least once after leaving  Inter-generational transfers of wealth FOUR-YEAR RESIDENTIAL COLLEGES  Orientation, Dormitories, Extracurricular and Student Activities, Health and Mental Health, Recreation, Career Guidance, Civic/Community Engagement, Mentoring

6. Trends in Europe and the U.S. Disconnected youth 2004 Kids Count Report One in six 18 – 25 year olds: No degree beyond high school No job Not enrolled in school A 19% increase over three prior years Council of Europe -- Exploring the European Youth Mosaic Significant proportions of young people aged 15 – 19 Not in education Not in training Not employed

8. Implications of TTA for Educational Persistence New Norm – Some Education Beyond High School Expected by Employers Necessary to attain well-paying job Financial and Social Returns to Education Unpredictable Labor Market Hedging bets – Multiple Credentials – Double/Triple Majors Retraining, Retooling 9 – 16% of 16 – 24 year olds No high school completion Parallel Trends Past Few Decades High-School Drop Out and Declines in Marriage Second Chance Programs – Degree Completion, Incorporation of Disconnected Youth

9. Policy Issues Bridging the Gap Demands of Labor Market – Educationally Unprepared Community Colleges Access and Persistence; Innovations Pell Grants Bridging the Gap – Haves and Have Nots Vulnerable or “At Risk” Groups 2008 – Fostering Connections Act Coordination Across Systems vs. Compartmentalizing Training of Professionals -Young Adults with Disabilities Raising Minimum Wage and Extending EITC New Institutional Forms Civic/Community Engagement – Social Incorporation AmeriCorps; Conservation Corps; ChalleNGe; Youth Build Edward Kennedy Serve America Act

14. Education and the Civic Divide

15. Social Trust by Year and Cohort

16. Education and Democracy I know of no safe repository of the ultimate powers of the society – but the people themselves. And if we think them not enlightened enough to exercise control with a wholesome discretion, the remedy is not to take it from them, but to inform their discretion by education. Thomas Jefferson