1. Sexual Offenders: What the Research Reveals
Franca Cortoni, Ph.D., C.Psych.
School of Criminology
University of Montreal
Association Paroling Authorities International
Audio Conference
May 28, 2008

2. Sexual Offenders Understanding Recidivism Risk Assessment Treatment
Circles of Support & Accountability
Female Sexual Offenders
Conclusions

3. Understanding Recidivism (aka - Not all male sexual offenders are the same!!!)

4. Average International Recidivism Rates – Male S.O.
Average follow-up of 5 years
13.5% sexual (N = 23,494)
25.5% any violent (N = 13,427)
35.5% any recidivism (N = 18,167)
Hanson & Morton (2003)

5. Sexual Recidivism by Type of Victims
Follow-up = 15 years
Adult Victims (N=1,038)
24%
Intrafamilial (N = 1,099)
vs.
Extrafamilial (N = 2,798)
13%
25%
Girl Victims (N = 1,572)
Boy Victims (N = 706)
16%
35%
Harris & Hanson (2004)

6. Evaluation of Risk of Sexual Recidivism

7. (p.1158; Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2005)
“The prototypical sexual recidivist is not upset or lonely; instead he leads an unstable, antisocial lifestyle and ruminates on sexually deviant themes”
(p.1158; Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2005)

8. Why Risk Assessment?
Evaluation informs on the level of risk posed by the offender & informs on when the offender may be most at risk of reoffending
Informs on treatment needs
Provide strategies for supervision to promote the effective management of the offender’s risk.

9. Types of Risk of Recidivism
General recidivism (i.e., non-violent and non-sexual)
Violent recidivism (may or may not include sexual recidivism)
Sexual recidivism

10. Evaluation of Risk of Sexual Recidivism
Evaluation of risk of sexual recidivism always take into consideration static & dynamic risk factors
Risk factors are individual characteristics that increase or decrease the probability of recidivism

11. Static Risk Factors
Historical factors that have been demonstrated to relate to recidivism potential.
These are non-changeable aspects of the offender.

12. Dynamic Risk Factors
Factors associated with recidivism but that are amenable to change.
These are the issues that are addressed in treatment.

13. Dynamic Risk Factors (cont.)
Stable: Enduring changeable characteristics linked to the offending behavior.
Acute: Rapidly changing changeable characteristics; may indicate that a reoffense will occur within a short period of time
Some factors may be both stable and acute

14. Established Static Risk Factors for Sexual and Violent Recidivism among Sexual Offenders
Young
Single
No current romantic relationship
Total criminal history
Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004

15. Established Risk Factors for Violent Recidivism among Sexual Offenders
Antisocial orientation
History of rule violation
History of violent crime
Lifestyle instability
Substance abuse
Cluster B Personality Disorders (antisocial, narcissistic, borderline)
Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004

16. Factors Unrelated to Violent Recidivism among Sexual Offenders
Psychosis, major mental illness
Internalizing psychological disorders
Depression; anxiety
Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004

17. Established Risk Factors for Sexual Recidivism
Sexual criminal history
Prior sexual offences
Early onset of sexual crimes
Diverse sexual crimes
Victim characteristics
Unrelated
Strangers
Male
Non-contact sexual offences
Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004

18. continued… Sexual deviance Any deviant sexual interest Children
Paraphilias
Sexual preoccupations
Attitudes tolerant of sexual assault
Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004

19. continued… Lifestyle instability / general criminality
History of rule violation (lack of compliance with supervision)
Antisocial attitudes
Antisocial traits
Impulsivity, hostility
Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004

20. continued… Relationship Issues:
Problematic intimate relationships (conflict with intimate partner)
Emotional identification with children
Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004

21. Factors Not Related to Sexual Recidivism
Victim empathy
Denial/minimization of sexual offence
Lack of motivation for treatment
Internalizing psychological problems
Anxiety; depression; low self-esteem
Sexually abused as a child
Sexual intrusiveness (e.g., intercourse)
Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004

22. Risk Assessment Tools: Specific Examples

23. The STATIC-99 – Static Factors
Young Age (- 25 y.)
Never married
Non-sexual violence in index offence
Prior non-sexual violent convictions
Prior sexual offences
Prior sentencing dates
Non-contact sexual offences
Stranger victims
Unrelated victims
Male victims
Hanson & Thornton, 1999

24. The STABLE: Dynamic Factors
Intimacy Deficits
Significant Social Influences
Attitudes supportive of Sexual Assault
Sexual Self-regulation
General Self-regulation
Lack of Cooperation with Supervision
Hanson & Harris (2000 & ongoing)

25. The ACUTE: Dynamic Factors
Substance Abuse
Emotional Collapse
Collapse of Social Supports
Hostility*
Sexual Preoccupation*
Victim Access*
Rejection of Supervision*
Hanson & Harris, 2000 & ongoing

26. Are Acute Factors specifically useful in predicting recidivism?
Yes – all acute factors related to recidivism, but most powerful:
Sexual Preoccupation
Victim Access
Hostility
Rejection of Supervision
Hanson, Harris, Scott, & Helmus, 2007

27. Treatment

28. Treatment Current standards: Goals of Treatment:
Treatment is based on behavioural strategies, including cognitive-behavioural, social learning, modelling, and skill building.
Goals of Treatment:
To address in treatment the dynamic risk factors leading to the sexually offending behavior
To understand the behavioral progression to the offense
To develop a self-management plan

29. Treatment Targets
Cognitive issues : Schemas about themselves; others; and the world (includes attitudes; beliefs; distortions of the offending behavior & victims)
Sexual Self-Regulation (including arousal management)
General Self-Regulation
Intimacy & Relationships
Emotions Management
Social & Interpersonal Functioning
Understanding of behavioural progression & self-management strategies

30. Behavioral Progression
A predictable series of events & situations
Combined with cognitive & emotional states
That leads to sexual offending

31. A Self Management Plan Should…
…establish positive goals incompatible with offending
…develop management & coping strategies for internal & external risk factors
…ensure cognitive & emotional components are present
…ensure strategies to deal with deviant arousal are included if necessary
…include a support network
…be concrete but generalizable.

32. Treatment Effectiveness

33. Treatment Effectiveness
In the Canadian correctional system, research shows that treated sexual offenders (of all risk levels) consistently demonstrate a 50% reduction in reoffending
International research on the effectiveness of treatment for sexual offenders also shows similar reductions when treatment is based on current standards. 33

34. International Findings - ATSA Collaborative Database

35. The Importance of Completing Treatment

36. Recidivism & Treatment Attrition
ATSA Collaborative Database (Hanson et al., 2002):
18 studies found the same results:
offenders who start but fail to complete treatment have consistently higher rates of recidivism than those who completed or refused treatment.

37. Managing the risk in the community: Circles of Support & Accountability (CoSAs)

38. Circles of Support & Accountability

39. CoSAs Mission Statement
To substantially reduce the risk of future sexual victimization of community members by assisting and supporting released men in their task of integrating with the community and leading responsible, productive, and accountable lives.

40. Are CoSAs Effective? Study 1: Wilson, Pricheca, & Prinzo (2005)
Follow-up= 4.5 years
CoSAs (N=60)
Control (N=60)
Sexual Recidivism
5.00% (3)
16.67% (10)
Expected sexual recidivism
28.33% (17)
26.45% (16)
Study 2: Wilson, Cortoni & Vermani (2007)
Follow-up = 3 years
CoSAs (N=47)
Control (N=47)
Sexual Recidivism
2.13% (n=1)
12.77% (n=6)

41. Female Sexual Offenders

42. Female Sexual Offenders
Tremendous advances in the knowledge of risk assessment for adult male sexual offenders.
In contrast, little is known about risk assessment & treatment of female sexual offenders.
Not only are the risk factors unknown, but there has been little research on the recidivism base rates for female sexual offenders.

43. Proportion of Sexual Offenders who are Women
Two general sources of information from 5 countries:
1) Official police or Court reports of offender gender
2) Victimization surveys
Overall, results showed that women appear to be responsible for approximately 4% to 5% of all sexual offences
These indicate a ratio of approximately 20 male to 1 female sexual offenders based on both official reports and victimization surveys
Cortoni & Hanson (2005)

44. Average International Recidivism Rates of Female Sexual Offenders
The sexual recidivism rate of 1.0% after 5 years (3/306)
The violent recidivism rate (including sexual) of 6.3% (12/191)
The general recidivism rate (including sexual & violent) of 20.2% (68/337)
Cortoni & Hanson (2005)

45. Canadian Recidivism Study
61 women convicted of sexual offenses
7.56 years follow-up ( y.)
32.8% re-offended (N=20)
7 / 20 committed a violent offense
2 / 7 committed a new sexual offense
Williams & Nicholaichuk (2001)

46. Tentative Risk Factors of Female Sexual Offenders **
Prior sexual offences
Acted alone (no male accomplice )
Unrelated victim
** Difficult to provide clear empirical evidence
** Must pay attention to general risk factors among female offenders in addition to those for sexual recidivism since no other method of risk assessment

47. Putting it all Together!
Conclusions:
Putting it all Together!

48. Risk Assessment: Points to Remember
Risk is not a static state. It fluctuates with changes in dynamic risk factors.
Actuarial risk level provides the long term potential of recidivism.
Dynamic risk factors provide indications of problematic areas that can be addressed to manage the risk.
Acute risk factors provide indications about when sexual recidivism may occur.

49. Start with the Right Information:
Gather all relevant facts – look for:
static risk
dynamic risk
targeting of dynamic risk factors in treatment & outcome re: dynamic risk factors, skills
indicators of manageability of risk
community support
indicators of deterioration

50. Reviewing Risk Information:
Consider long-term (static) risk
Consider dynamic risk factors in individual case
Consider risk for non-sexual recidivism separately
Apply weight to actuarial and structured empirically based assessments - not to unstructured clinical judgment of risk (i.e., based on traditional models of psychopathology)

51. Reviewing Treatment Results:
Consider treatment outcome:
successful completion versus drop-out
consider the offender’s understanding of his/her risk & of his self-management plan
consider the offender’s ability to implement his plan (is his release plan congruent with his self-management plan?)

52. Recommendations - Management
Consider presence & extent of dynamic risk factors in individual cases
Consider the offender’s willingness (look for behavioural indicators) to work cooperatively to manage his/her risk
Consider past history with supervision – evidence of adherence to conditions?
Apply greater weight to presence & extent of acute risk factors (rather than static risk potential) if purpose is post-suspension review.
In this context, pay particular attention to victim access; hostility; rejection of supervision; & sexual preoccupation.

53. Thank you! * For full description of the functioning of COSAs, see:
Circles of Support & Accountability: An Evaluation of the Pilot Project in South-Central Ontario. Wilson, R.J., Picheca, J., & Prinzo (2005). Research Report R-168. Correctional Service Canada.
Available at: (on main page left menu, click on Research; select Research Reports; scroll to R-168).