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Seven Indicators are Rising Air temperature over land Sea-surface temperature Air temperature over oceans Sea level Ocean heat Humidity Tropospheric temperature Three Indicators are Declining Arctic sea ice Glaciers Spring snow cover in Northern Hemisphere NASA
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IPCC 2007 Natural Moderating of the Earth’s Atmosphere
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The Human Factor http://www.nps.gov/goga/naturescience/climate-change-causes.htm
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Humans are responsible for recent warming Natural variation cannot account for recent warming
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International Energy Agency “The message from our latest World Energy Outlook, released in November [2011], is clear – unless we change course immediately, then by 2017 we will have “locked-in” the carbon allowance of the energy sector to 2035, if we are to limit global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius. In other words, on our current path, by 2017 we will have built long-lived CO2-emitting energy infrastructure that will require all additional energy infrastructure to be zero-carbon, or we will fall short of our goal.” (Official statement at UNFCCC COP17) 450 ppm 2 deg C limit
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Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change base period 1951-1980 dotted black line is the annual mean solid red line is the five-year mean green bars show uncertainty estimates NASA
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Impacts of a Warming World +1.5 o C – Vital for low-lying island states to survive Arctic sea ice already disappearing Most of the world's corals will die Glaciers retreat Climate related disease vectors +2 o C – The maximum temperature limit the scientists warn Heat waves; extreme weather events Amazon turns into desert and grasslands World's oceans too acidic for remaining coral reefs and other marine life forms West Antarctic ice sheet collapse; Greenland ice sheet melts; Sea level rises 7 m A third of the world's species become extinct (habitat changes too abrupt)
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Above +2 deg our children inherit a world we would not recognize +3 o C – Looking increasingly likely Global warming may run out of control Efforts to mitigate may be in vain Much of Amazon rainforest could burn down Southern Africa, Australia, western US – desertification Scarcer food and water worldwide Gulf Stream decline and changes weather patterns in Europe +4 o C – Extreme danger zone Arctic permafrost releases methane and carbon dioxide locked in soils Arctic ice cover would disappear permanently (extinction of polar bears & native species) Further 5m rise in the sea level Global average temperatures hotter than for 50 million years
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Youth Protests Canadian youth turn their backs on the Canadian Minister of the Environment Abigail Borah interrupts Todd Stern press conference http://www.wearepowershift.org/ category/tags/abigail-borah http://canadianyouthdelegation.wordpress.com/2011/12/07/press-release-youth- turn-their-backs-on-canadian-government- during-opening-speech/
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Fossil of the Day http://www.climatenetwork.org/fossil- of-the-day/new-zealand-earns-first- place-fossil-united-states-and-canada- share-%E2%80%9Ccolossal-foss The Fossil of the Day goes to the countries that hold up negotiations the most. The US won Fossil of the Year
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