1. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On Training Workshop
Introduction and Overview of Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
Full references can be found in Chapter 11, Bibliography, of the Handbook.

2. Outline Some introductory thoughts and getting started
What is vulnerability and adaptation to climate change?
Overview of V&A frameworks
Note this presentation covers Chapters 1 and 2 in the Handbook. However it goes beyond them. In particular, the introductory thoughts are not discussed in the Handbook. They reflect my views. Someone else giving this presentation may not necessarily be comfortable with them.

3. Some Introductory Thoughts

4. “To a Hammer, Everything Looks Like a Nail”
Methods or models do not provide answers, but can help us gain insights
The first step is to consider the question(s) being asked
This slide was written to steer those conducting assessments away from being enamored with models. Models can be fun to apply but they can become an end in themselves. One has to always remember they are tools.
The most important thing is the questions being asked. Then the appropriate methods should be selected to help in answering the questions.

5. Some Questions to Begin Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation
What is of concern?
Food production, water supply, health?
Concerns may not be expressed in climate terms, e.g., extreme temperature, but in consequences of climate for people
Who may be affected?
How far into the future is of concern?
Note concerns may focus on current risks (which could be made worse by climate change)
These are some of the key questions that should be answered at the beginning of an assessment. They will be useful for setting boundaries for the assessment and for determining what methods and approaches may be needed.

6. Some Questions to Begin Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation (continued)
For what purpose is the assessment to be used?
Raising awareness (education)?
Policy making? (e.g., to inform a particular decision)
What kind of output is needed?

7. Additional Questions to Ask Before Getting Started
What resources are available to conduct the study?
Money
Staff
Expertise
How much time is available?
These practical questions about resource availability are also important too. If time, money, or staffing is limited, there is less you can do. If you have more of them, you can do more.

8. These Questions are Key Factors in Determining How to Conduct Your Study
You should not begin with the methods or models you have in hand, but with these questions
Select methods and models that best help you answer the questions
Once you have determined the questions to be addressed and the availability of resources, then you can look at what methods and models are appropriate.

9. Different Questions May Lead to Different Approaches
Questions about how climate change may affect resources may lead to analysis of long-term impacts, e.g., out to 2100
Questions about adaptation may lead to analysis of vulnerability within a planning horizon, e.g., 5 to 50 years
The time frame being examined is also a very important matter. Those interested in understanding impacts of climate change ought to look over many decades, perhaps out to This is because climate change impacts become more easy to detect or differentiate from current climate variation in the long run.
Those more interested in current vulnerability or adaptation strategies may wish to focus on the next few decades up to about This is generally because most policy makers would have difficulty planning for more than a few decades and some might even have difficulty planning for a few decades into the future.

10. Who Is Asking the Question(s) May Matter for How the Work Is Done
Some may be content with research that is conducted by the researchers
Others may wish for a hands-on approach
e.g, involve stakeholders in conducting the analysis
How the analysis is done is also important. This is something that should be sorted out with stakeholders. For some, it is not important who does the analysis, as long as the stakeholders trust that it is being done well. Other stakeholders may wish to take an active role in conducting the analysis or have people they trust (e.g., have worked with previously) conduct the research.
Either way, it is important to keep stakeholders involved, at least by keeping them informed about progress and interim results.

11. Bottom Line: What Information is Needed and When is it Needed?
The key question is what information is needed and when is it needed. Trainers could ask participants to answer these questions or have a group conversation about them.

12. What Are Vulnerability and Adaptation?
Now we turn to defining vulnerability (to climate change).

13. Vulnerability
Vulnerability to climate change is the risk of adverse things happening
Vulnerability is a function of three factors:
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity
Vulnerability concerns the risk of adverse things happening. Climate change is likely to have some benefits, but vulnerability is not concerned with that.

14. Exposure
Exposure is what is at risk from climate change, e.g.,
Population
Resources
Property
It is also the climate change that an affected system will face, e.g.,
Sea level
Temperature
Precipitation
Extreme events
There are two elements to exposure: what can affected by climate change and the change in climate itself.
Note that the World Bank is developing a screening tool for identifying within a region those development activities that may be most vulnerable to climate change. Information can be obtained from Dr. Ian Noble

15. Sensitivity Biophysical effect of climate change
Change in crop yield, runoff, energy demand
It considers the socioeconomic context, e.g., the agriculture system
Grain crops typically are sensitive
Manufacturing typically is much less sensitive
Sensitivity is basically the biophysical effect of climate change; but sensitivity can be changed by socioeconomic changes. For example, new crop varieties could be more or less sensitive to climate change.

16. Adaptive Capacity Capability to adapt Function of:
Wealth
Technology
Education
Institutions
Information
Infrastructure
“Social capital”
Having adaptive capacity does not mean it is used effectively
Adaptive capacity is the capability to adapt. The factors listed under the second bullet are from the IPCC Third Assessment Report (Smit et al., 2001). Having capacity does not guarantee it will be used effectively (a good evacuation plan may not be effectively implemented).

17. Vulnerability is a Function of All Three
More exposure and sensitivity increase vulnerability
More adaptive capacity decreases vulnerability
An assessment of vulnerability should consider all three factors
Exposure and sensitivity are positively related to vulnerability. The greater the exposure or sensitivity, the greater the vulnerability. Adaptive capacity is negatively related to vulnerability. The greater the adaptive capacity, the less the vulnerability.

18. Impacts of Climate Change
Impact is typically the effect of climate change
For biological systems, it can be change in productivity, quality, population, or range
For societal systems, an impact can be a change in income, morbidity, mortality, or other measure of well-being
Parry and Carter (1998) define impacts this way. Note that there a few formal definitions of “impacts of climate change.” The term “vulnerability” is more commonly used. The term “impacts” is often used more loosely.

19. Adaptation
“adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm of exploits beneficial opportunities” (Third Assessment Report, Working Group II)
Notice includes “actual” (realized) or “expected” (future) changes in climate

20. Adaptation (continued)
Two types of adaptation:
Autonomous adaptation or reactive adaptation tends to be what people and systems do as impacts of climate change become apparent
Anticipatory or proactive adaptation are measures taken to reduce potential risks of future climate change

21. Overview of Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks

22. Overview of Frameworks
Description of some V&A frameworks
One size does not fit all
Select a framework or method that best suits:
Questions being asked
Who is asking them
What kind of answers are needed
What resources and time are available
This section briefly reviews a number of V&A frameworks.
No single framework will be appropriate for all circumstances.
Users should consider different frameworks and select one that best suits the bullets in the slide.
Users may also wish to select different components of different frameworks, as long as the whole enables the questions identified at the beginning of the assessment to be addressed.

23. Two Types of Frameworks
Impacts
Also known as “first generation” or “top down”
Adaptation
Also known as “second generation” or “bottom up”
We can divide the V&A frameworks into two categories: “impacts” and “adaptation.” These particular terms have not been widely used; more common are the terms listed in the sub-bullets.

24. “Top Down” vs. “Bottom Up”
Source: Dessai and Hulme, 2004.
Dessai and Hulme point out differences between bottom up (adaptation) and top down (impacts) frameworks. The differences include:
Focus. Bottom up tend to focus on social vulnerabilities; top down tend to at least start with analysis of biophysical impacts, e.g., change in crop yields, runoff, or sea level rise.
Scale. Bottom up tend to focus on smaller geographic scales, whereas top down tend to focus on larger geographic scale impacts.
Time Horizon. Bottom up tend to address past and near term risks or concerns, while top down tend to address longer tem risks, e.g., fifty to one hundred years in the future.

25. Impacts Frameworks Driven by Need to Understand Long-Term Consequences
Tend to look out many decades (to 2100 or beyond)
Tend to be scenario driven
Impacts frameworks focus on consequences of climate change. They look out many decades to capture more significant change in climate (the further from the present the greater the change in climate). They also tend to rely on scenarios, e.g., from climate models.
One of the reasons for examining long-term consequences, particularly in the first generation frameworks, was to inform policy makers about the potential consequences of continued GHG emissions. Given the lifetime of carbon dioxide (the main GHG) in the atmosphere, it makes sense to look out as far as a century.

26. Adaptation Frameworks Driven by Need to Supply Useful Information to Stakeholders
Tend to address near-term concerns
Often address climate variability and change
Emphasis on socioeconomic context
Driven by stakeholder identification of issues and involvement in process
Bring in analysis as necessary and appropriate
Could use non-analytic techniques
Adaptation frameworks tend to address more near term concerns such as vulnerability to climate variability. Socioeconomic context (e.g., sustainable livelihoods) is very important.
They also tend to involve stakeholders more than the impacts frameworks.

27. Impacts Frameworks IPCC Seven Steps U.S. Country Studies Program
UNEP Handbook
We will review these three “impacts” frameworks. The were created in the early to mid-1990s.

28. Basic Structure for Impacts Frameworks
The basic structure for the impacts frameworks is presented here.
The assessment begins with development of baseline scenarios. These are scenarios of changes in socioeconomic conditions, such as population, income (gross domestic product or GDP), technologies, institutions, and environmental conditions. As baseline conditions change, so too can vulnerability (e.g., by changing exposure, sensitivity, or adaptive capacity).
Scenarios of climate change are then developed and applied.
The first analysis of impacts is typically on biophysical impacts such as amount of land potentially inundated by sea level rise, change in crop yields, change in runoff, etc.
If the impacts on society are being examined, the next analysis is on the effects of climate change on society. Often, this is the consequence of biophysical changes In considering the impacts on society, autonomous adaptation should be taken into account (because people will most likely attempt to adapt to climate change). In addition, integration of impacts across related systems and sectors (e.g., examine not just in water supply, but how it would affect related sectors such as agriculture, but also examine change in demand for water).
The result of all of this is estimation of vulnerability of a system.
Purposeful (or proactive) adaptations can then be examined. These may be changes in baseline conditions to anticipate potential impacts of climate change.

29. IPCC Seven Steps Define the problem Select the method Test the method
Select scenarios
Assess biophysical and socioeconomic impacts
Assess autonomous adjustments
Evaluate adaptation strategies
IPCC Seven steps were developed by Tim Carter and colleagues (1994). It was the first attempt to define a process for assessing vulnerability to climate change.
Sources: Carter et al., 1994; Parry and Carter, 1998.

30. U.S. Country Studies Program
Provided detailed guidance on specific methods
Coastal resources
Agriculture
Livestock
Water resources
Vegetation
Human health
Wildlife
Fisheries
Adaptation
Publications
The U.S. Country Studies Program (USCSP) ran in the early to mid-1990s. The USCSP worked with more than 50 developing countries and countries in transition on GHG inventories, V&A, and mitigation strategies. More than 40 countries assessed vulnerability and adaptation.
Detailed guidance was provided on assessment methods for all of the sectors listed. The guidance applied to only one method per sector.
Sources: Benioff and Warren (eds.) [addresses assessment of adaptation]; Benioff et al. (eds.) [contains guidance on impacts assessment for all the sectors listed].

31. UNEP Handbook Presents overviews of methods Topics include
        
Presents overviews of methods
Source for information on different methods
Not detailed guidance
Topics include
Climate change scenarios
Socioeconomic scenarios
The UNEP Handbook was intended to provide information about a number of methods so users could compare methods and choose among them. Unlike the USCSP guidance, it did not provide details on how to apply individual methods.
The topics include the two listed here and the topics on the next slide.

32. UNEP Handbook (continued)
Integration
Adaptation
Water resources
Coastal zones
Agriculture
Rangeland and livestock
Human health
Energy
Forests
Biodiversity
Fisheries
Feenstra et al. (eds.), 1998.

33. Adaptation Frameworks
UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework
NAPA Guidance
UKCIP
These are some of the main frameworks that can be considered to be “second generation,” “bottom-up,” or “adaptation” frameworks.

34. UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) is the first of the “second generation” frameworks. It was developed to place much more emphasis on current vulnerabilities to climate variability than were the “first generation” frameworks. Thus, assessing current vulnerability (to current climate risks) is the second step in the framework. The framework also emphasizes continued stakeholder involvement in the assessment process.
The APF can be downloaded at
It is also published in: Lim et al. (eds.) 2005.

35. UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (continued)
Contains technical papers on:
Scoping and designing an adaptation project
Engaging stakeholders in the adaptation process
Assessing vulnerability for climate adaptation
Assessing current climate risks
Assessing future climate risks
Assessing current and changing socioeconomic conditions
Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity
Formulating an adaptation strategy
Continuing the adaptation process
The technical papers provide more details on specific aspects of the framework. Each number in the slide corresponds to the number of the technical paper.

36. NAPA Guidance National Adaptation Programmes of Action
Least developed countries identify and rank proposed measures to adapt to climate change
Decision 28/CP.7
The National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) is the one guidance that comes out of the Convention process.
It is tied to allocation of adaptation funds under the Convention.
NAPAs were approved at COP-7 (in Marrakech).

37. NAPA Process
The NAPA process emphasizes building on existing assessments, undertaking a national consultative process, and setting priorities for adaptation projects to address urgent vulnerabilities.

38. NAPA Guidance (continued)
Guidance provides framework for developing NAPAs
Discusses:
Objectives and characteristics of NAPA’s guiding elements
Process
Structure
The NAPA guidance can be obtained at

39. UKCIP Framework Identify problem and objectives
Establish decision-making criteria
Assess risk
Identify options
Appraise options
Make decision
Implement decision
Monitor, evaluate, and review
The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) is one of the most comprehensive and ambitious national programs to address climate change impacts and adaptation. UKCIP has organized information on climate change and vulnerabilities in Britain and has worked closely with stakeholders in many regions to address adaptation to climate change.
The UKCIP published a guidance on how to address adaptation. The main steps in the guidance are displayed in this slide.
Guidance Document on Climate Adaptation: Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Making

40. Other Approaches VARA Sustainable livelihoods
VARA: Vulnerability and Response Assessment (VARA) for Climate Variability and Change

41. Vulnerability and Response Assessment for Climate Variability and Change
Heuristic, not analytic device
Nonquantitative
Five step approach
Consider local factors affecting vulnerability
Estimate climate change impacts
Estimate local impacts
Identify coping capacity and resilience
Identify strategies for action
VARA is being developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
It is useful for organizing information about local vulnerability to climate change and response strategies. It does not allow for quantitative or detailed analysis of vulnerability or responses.
Contact is Dr. Tom Wilbanks

42. Sustainable Livelihoods
The sustainable livelihoods approach focuses on livelihoods of the poor. It focuses on the assets and vulnerabilities of the poor. It is an approach for identifying development needs and for assessing the effectiveness of existing poverty reduction programs.
The focus is very much on the current situation, i.e., near-term planning rather than long-term planning. The challenge in using approaches such as this to examine climate change is how to reconcile a focus on the short term with long-term climate change.
More information can be obtained at:

43. AIACC Assessments of impacts and adaptations to climate change
Covers both impacts and adaptation approaches
Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change (AIACC) was funded by GEF through START.

44. AIACC (continued)
A total of 24 projects involving 46 countries were funded. AIACC funds collaborative research projects in developing countries. This was started to help further develop research capacity in developing countries and to increase the literature which addresses developing country vulnerability and adaptation. Results will soon be available.

45. Selecting a Framework
We are not recommending use of a particular framework
Different frameworks are appropriate for different needs
What is needed in the long run is integration of climate change predictions and adaptation with a baseline of vulnerability
The frameworks are divided between adaptation and impacts. What is desirable is if these approaches can be merged in a manner that can begin with vulnerabilities (which often are based in the present) but can integrate long-term risks from climate change.

46. Application of Frameworks
Projects often take longer and cost more than originally thought (or proposed)
Be careful about complex frameworks
You may only get through the first few steps before running out of time or funds
Do what you need early on

47. Key Factors in Determining How to Conduct Your Study
You should not begin with the methods or models you have in hand, but with these questions
Select methods and models that best help you answer the questions