1. Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) Understanding Wales: Opportunities for Secondary Data Analysis Chris Taylor Wales Institute of Social & Economic Research, Data and Methods

2. What is the MCS? A UK birth cohort study The third major cohort study in the UK: 1.National Child Development Study – born in one week in March 1958 2.British Cohort Study – born in one week in April 1970 3.Millennium Cohort Study – born during 2000 4.2012 British Cohort Study

3. Cohort Studies Sometimes referred to as a panel study Longitudinal study: follows the same people over time Observations and data collected at various points during the lifecycle (“sweeps” or “surveys”) Two main forms of longitudinal analysis possible: 1.Observations are compared over time – i.e. changes over lifecourse 2.Prior conditions can be used to explain later outcomes* (* which may be known/unknown initially)

4. Aims of the MCS A multi-purpose long-term resource for the research and policy community – more or less emphasis on biomarkers? Charting the of the social, economic and health conditions facing the cohort and their consequences. Which dimensions of ‘development’? Beyond uni-directional accumulation of cognitive attainment, academic attainments and avoidance of adult-reported behavioural difficulties, freedom from illness and disability – identity, risk-taking, relationships, time use, physical activity, brain development ? The emergence of capabilities? Observation of intergenerational transmission of advantage and disadvantage and the processes involved. Aspirations and expectations, agency of young person, role of school and peers. Comparison with other British and international cohorts. Opportunities opening up, co- ordination through EUCCONET Collecting ‘new’ information, eg father’s involvement,- friends, internet, media, qualitative sub-studies, genetics, neuro-science? To investigate the wider social ecology of the family, including community and services, splicing in geo-coded data Schools, siblings

5. Design of the MCS Cohort born in all four seasons of the year Includes children in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland Geographically clustered by electoral ward Over represents children from different ethnic groups and those in deprived areas

6. Sweeps of the MCS MCS1: 2001-2002 (9 months old) – 19,000 children in 398 wards of the UK MCS2: 2003-2004 (3 years old) MCS3: 2006 (5 years old) MCS4: 2008 (7 years old) 2012 (11 years old) 2015 (14 years old) 2018 (17 years old)

7. Families in the first 3 surveys COUNTRY ( at MCS1) Number of Sampled Wards Number of Sampled Families MCS1 Achieved Sample 9 months MCS2 Achieved Sample (Age 3) MCS3 Achieved Sample ( Age 5) ENGLAND 20016,94811,53210,050 9,717 WALES 733,8582,7612,261 2,181 SCOTLAND 6223,3272,3361,814 N IRELAND 623,0681,9231,465 1,534 UK39827,20118,55215,59015,246

8. MCS Content

9. Content of parent interviews Household questionnaire (Either Parent) Family Context (Main) Early Education, schooling & childcare(Main) Child & Family Activities(Main) Parenting Activities (Main & Partner) Child Health (Main) Parent’s Health (Main & Partner) Employment, Education and Income(Main & Partner) Housing & Local Area(Main) + Interviewers MCS2 Social and Community Context(Main & Partner) Self-completion(Main & Partner) Older Siblings (Age 3 and 5)(Main)

10. Direct assessments on child Cognitive Assessments – Age appropriate e.g. BAS Naming Vocabulary at 3 and 5, – BAS Pattern Construction at 5 and 7 Self Completed Questionnaire – New at age 7 Physical Measurements – Height – Weight (+ Body fat at age 7) – Waist Measurement – Physical Activity, age 7 ( WT funded)

11. MCS in Wales Boosted sample – representative sample – ‘Disadvantaged’ (25% most disadvantaged wards in England and Wales) (@ 69% of families in sample) – ‘Non-disadvantaged’ (the rest, ‘advantaged’) SweepAgeFamiliesChildren MCS19 months2,7612,799 MCS23 years2,2612,288 MCS35 years2,1812,208 MCS47 years2,018 (1,779) 2,039

12. Key references Hansen et al (2010) MCS Fourth Survey: A user’s guide to initial findings (CLS, IoE) Joshi and Hawkes (2006) Early and late entry to motherhood in Wales: report to the Welsh Assembly Government Dex et al (2010) The development of children living in Wales: final report to the Welsh Assembly Secondary Analysis Programme Jones et al (2010) An investigation into regional differences in child health and cognitive function: report for the Economic Research Unit, Welsh Assembly Government Joshi et al (2011) Child development at age seven in Wales, Welsh Government Social Research 25/2011

13. Key findings so far Country-specific ‘effect’ of living in Wales on child health and cognitive functions (e.g. on occurrence of accidents, hospital admissions for non-accident illness, child obesity, BAS Naming Vocabulary scores (spoken English)), and seem to get stronger as the children age Maternal characteristics seem more influential on child health and development than they do for children in England Family income not as important in determining child health compared to other factors, and seems less important than in England Cognitive development is associated with poverty (and neighbourhood) but other factors seem more important in determining these kinds of outcomes

14. Key findings continued Different socio-economic indicators predict variation in different aspects of child development: complex relationships Parenting behaviour influences outcomes, regardless of socio-economic advantage Regular reading and ‘routines’ highly associated with preferable outcomes Early years hugely influential on later outcomes (and ‘gaps’ tend to grow over time). Cumulative impact also important.

15. Key findings continued Children from Welsh-speaking families tend to have lower levels of vocabulary skills (in English or Welsh) at age 3 and 5 but not in other cognitive developments. This ‘gap’ seems to disappear at age 7 (delayed function?). But children from Welsh-speaking homes have lower scores in maths at age 7

16. Future analysis Home-international comparisons – The impact of testing in schools – Living and growing up in rural areas Regional comparisons – The use and development of the Welsh language and bilingualism – The interrelationships between spatial and social mobility of families Local variations – The presence and impact of higher levels of social capital amongst families in Wales – The impact of socio-economic disadvantage on attitudes towards education and future prospects

17. Further information Dr Chris Taylor, WISERD Cardiff University taylorcm@cardiff.ac.uk @dr_christaylor Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS), Institute of Education, University of London www.cls.ioe.ac.uk