1. Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

2. The nuclear peace?  Massive nuclear arsenals: 70,000 nukes by late 1980s  End of civilisation w/ over one billion dead  No nuclear use since 1945

3. Key themes  Explaining the build-up  Civil-military differences  Nuclear strategy

4. Reaction to the bomb  Mixture of “awe and apprehension.”  Hiroshima and Nagasaki blown off the map killing up to 140,000  Press censorship of destruction  Prompt surrender of Japan

5. Hiroshima: clinical destruction

7. Hiroshima: the hidden suffering

8. Reaction to the bomb  Mixture of “awe and apprehension.”  Hiroshima and Nagasaki blown off the map killing up to 140,000  Press censorship of destruction  Prompt surrender of Japan

9. Race from the start  US atomic bomb: 1945  Soviet A-bomb: 1949  US hydrogen bomb: 1952  Soviet H-bomb: 1955

10. Mike test  10 megaton = 500 Hiroshimas  Cloud: 30 x 27 miles  Crater: mile wide and 200 ft deep  End of “Duck and Cover”

11. Superpower nuclear arsenals  Massive size  Complexity  Overkill

12. Explaining the arms build-up  External: arms race  Internal: domestic politics

13. Arms racing  Explains ‘why’ but not ‘how’  Tit-for-tat dynamics  Origins of Soviet programme  Failure of 1946 Baruch Plan  Limitations?

14. Domestic politics  Bureaucratic interests, election politics, and the MIC  Origins of the US build-up  Undermining alternatives  Windows of vulnerability

15. Civilian perspectives  Special weapons of last resort  Nuclear taboo: public opinion and personal conviction  Truman and AEC  Eisenhower and Korea  LBJ and Vietnam

16. Can war be left to the generals?

17. Mr. Atom Bomb

18. Military perspectives  WWII bombing campaigns & SAC  Emergency War Plan 1-49  “smoking radiating ruin at the end of two hours.”  Circumventing civilian control

19. Nuclear nutters

20. Peace through strength

21. Golden age of nuclear strategy  MAD v nuclear war-fighting  Can nuclear war be fought?  How easy is deterrence?  Objective: denial or punishment? (Gray v Howard)

23. Cuban Missile Crisis

24. United Nations Security Council

25. CMC: Soviet motives  Deter US invasion  Redress strategic imbalance  Counter Turkey deployment

26. EXCOMM

27. CMC: US options  Naval quarantine  Air strike  Invasion

28. Public alarm

29. Enforcing the blockade

30. Clashes in the Caribbean

31. Shooting down US spy-plane

32. Crisis resolution  Trollope Ploy  Secret trade

33. Back channel

34. Credit for Kennedy?  Necessity for crisis  Firm resolve  Cold War record

35. Threat of nuclear war  Deliberate war - Soviet fears - JFK measures  Accidental war - “Falling leaves” EWS - SAC provocation

36. The Deterrence Paradigm  Central v extended deterrence  Immediate v general deterrence  Longevity - robust w/out reckless - best of a bad job - reflected institutional inertia

37. US nuclear strategy  Declaratory policy (MAD v NWF)  Employment policy (more choice)  War plan (SIOP)

38. NSTDB  1960: 4,100  1974: 25,000  1980: 40,000  1982: 50,000

39. The nuclear peace: a close call  Imperative: sufficient damage to target base  US early warning system failures: 1962, 1968, 1973, 1979, 1980  LOW: pre-delegating launch authority