1. LIFE – Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 1Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Input for Geological Risk Assessment Johannes Klein & Jaana Jarva April 2008, St. Petersburg

2. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 2Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Risk (technical approach) Risk = Hazard x Consequence Exposure & Vulnerability The probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses (deaths, injuries, property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged) resulting from interactions between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable conditions. Conventionally risk is expressed by the notation Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability. Some disciplines also include the concept of exposure to refer particularly to the physical aspects of vulnerability. (UNISDR 2004)

3. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 3Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Input for the Risk Components Hazard: –Type of hazard (geological instability, erosion, radon, flood….) –Probability of occurrence –Extent and magnitude Exposure: –No. of people affected –No. of buildings affected –Length of affected network infrastructure (roads, pipelines, water supply…) Vulnerability: –Sensitivity –Value

4. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 4Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Examples for Vulnerability Buildings’ vulnerability (sensitivity) to geological instabilities: Vulnerability = construction type + age of building + height of building + maintenance + single house or row of houses Road network’s vulnerability to geological instabilities: Vulnerability = length + importance (+condition) People’s vulnerability to Radon: Vulnerability = construction type of building + drinking water source & consumption or radon in air

5. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 5Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Input data Geological Hazards: –Probability, Extent, Magnitude Exposure and Vulnerability –Cadastral data (no. & type of houses, infrastructure) –Population density –Other: condition of infrastructure & houses, distribution of population at day/night CEP? SC Mineral?

6. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 6Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Table of Geological Risks and Vulnerability Geological Hazard Hazard Parameter Exposed Element ExposureVulnerabilityParameters and Indexes Explanatio n Sources RadonRadon concentration in air over threshold PopulationPopulation in radon prone area No. of people in “unprotected” houses Foundation types: Slab-on-grade, house with basement, crawl space Vuotilainen, A. and I. Mäkeläinen, 1993: Radon Risk Mapping using Indoor Monitoring Data, Indoor Air 19943, 3, 369-375 Radon concentration in drinking water over threshold PopulationPeople using drinking water with radon concentratio n over threshold Amount of consumed radon affected drinking water Daily drinking water consumption: Adults: 140 ml/day Children: 200 ml/day Ingestion-dose- factor: Adults: 1x10 - 8 Sv/Bq Children: 2x10 - 8 Sv/Bq UNSCEAR 1993: Soruces and Effects of Ionizing Radiation – UNSCEAR 1993 Report to the General Assembly Geological Instability Mapping of ground stability BuildingsNo. of Buildings Height of buildings, age, construction type, maintenance, aggregation of buildings … … … See handed out table for more details

7. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 7Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Radon Risk Map -1 Very low2 Low3 Medium4 High5 Radon hazard forecast (taken from the radon-hazard map) Buildings’ vulnerability (building’s function & no. of floors) Very low1 Low2 Medium3 High4 Very high5 X = Radon Risk

8. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 8Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Buildings’ Vulnerability (first estimates)

9. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 9Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Radon Risk Map

10. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 10Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Weighting of hazards – the Delphi method Investigations of opinions and ratings from hazard and spatial planning experts on importance of certain hazard on European scale Three round => average estimation Another application on regional scale

11. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 11Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Multi-hazard (multi-risk) mapping Summing up of single hazard grid layers => classification of multi-hazards into five classes (very high, high, medium, low, very low) Using the method of summing up the grids makes it possible to look backwards what is the data behind the qualitative risk assessment See simplified example from Finland used to classify construction suitability on the regional scale

12. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 12Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Construction suitability data (simplified example from Finland) All data is converted to 25x25 metre grid Soil types have classes 1-20, and other mapping elements have classes 30-60 –6 = clay, 60 = water Slope steepness have classes 100-400 – 30 % = 400 Thickness of fine-grained sediments have classes 1000-5000 – 25 m = 5000

13. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 13Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Construction suitability data (2) End result: Raster map where Quaternary geological mapping data + slope steepness + thickness of fine-grained sediments are summed up Coding of grids: –1000 - 5000 thickness –100 - 400 slope steepness –1 - 16 soil type Example: Grid-code = 3106 –thickness of fine-grained sediments 3000 (= 4,5-13 m) –slope steepness 100 (= <5%) –soil type 6 (= clay)

14. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 14Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

15. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 15Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva MURLUMSS Multi-Risk Land Use Management Support System Map and scenario selection Hazard analysis Exposed elements analysis Vulnerability analysis Multiple criteria risk evaluation Coping capacity analysis Outputs Output comparisons between scenarios To be partly tested in GeoInforM –project?

16. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 16Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Risk factors, hazards (1) Geological instability –Quaternary deposits –Engineering geology Surface, 10 meters level, 20 meters level Lithological groups (sand, gravel, peat etc.) => properties + thickness Sub-groups of rocks –Hydrogeological properties Groundwater level in different aquifers (changes) Location of main aquifers Piezometric heights –Neotectonics Zones (calculated according to observed events) –Paleovalleys Pre-quaternary reliefs

17. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 17Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Risk factors, hazards (2) Radon hazard –4 classes (very low, low, medium, high) Nature gas generation –Areas with known natural gas generation –Areas recommended to be studied further –Areas with buried hydrological systems (lakes, river channels, also artificial formed areas) –Gas collector wells (risk management) (point data) –Gas generation events (known risk) (point data)

18. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 18Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Risk factors, hazards (3) Nature gas generation (4 classes?) –Areas with known risk –Areas where further studies are needed –Areas with buried hydrological systems (natural and artificial) –Areas with managed risk Karst formations –Location Surface erosion –Relevant documents, datasets will be provided by SC Mineral

19. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 19Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Risk factors, vulnerability (4) Master plan –Current situation of land use –Land use in 2015 –Land use in 2025 Buildings –Use of building –Number of floors –Type of building Population density (three options) –Number of registered residents in buildings –Estimations based on type of building –Distribution of population density in the city

20. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 20Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Further work The attribute information of selected.shp-files will be translated to English English translations will be delivered by SC Mineral to GTK either as separate tables or as.shp-files without any Cyrillic writing by the end of May GTK will first make proposal for classification of geologic instability Multi-hazard maps? Weighting of hazards; Delphi-method?

21. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 21Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Relevance of geological risks Results from questionnaire developed in Task 2 The most important risk according to four interviewed groups: flooding caused by groundwater Other relevant risks: karst formations and radon hazard Geological instability?

22. LIFE-Third Countries GeoInforM LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267 22Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva Discussion Difference between options of experts and people Promotion needed