1. Particulate Matter Air Pollution Reduction Scenarios In Osaka, Houston, Bangkok and Seoul -- A Prospective Health Benefits Analysis BAQ-Asia 2006 A. Scott Voorhees Kyoto University / U.S. EPA Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh, Prapat Pongkiatkul - Asian Institute of Technology Yoon Shin Kim - Hanyang University Wanida Jinsart, Wongpun Limpaseni - Chulalongkorn University Iwao Uchiyama - Kyoto University voorhees.scott@epa.gov

2. Methodology World Bank (Ostro, Vergara et al.) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Identify health effects for PM exposure (concentration- response functions) Are health effects from U.S. or Europe the same as effects in Asia? Chestnut, Ostro, Nuntavarn, Smith (World Bank, 1998) Health Effects of Particulate Matter Air Pollution in Bangkok Report to Thai Pollution Control Department “… [P]articulate matter is affecting the people of Bangkok. The health effects are comparable to those seen in studies throughout the world. ”

3. Health effects Long term mortality Bronchitis (chronic and acute) Cardiovascular disease Pneumonia Asthma Collect data Monitored air concentrations (2001; 2002) PM 10 PM 2.5 (assume 60% of PM 10 is PM 2.5 if no monitoring) Populations Total Age specific Asthmatic

4. City (year)# Monitors* Osaka (2001)22 monitors 7 roadside 15 general Houston (2002)5 monitors 10 (PM 2.5 ) Bangkok (2002)9 monitors 3 roadside 6 general Seoul (2002)20 monitors PM Monitors * Number of active monitors that reported PM data in analysis year.

5. Korea Air Quality Standard U.S. Thailand Seoul

6. U.S. Korea Air Quality Standard Seoul Thailand Japan

7. Reduction in PM - Assume uniform reductions throughout city (1) Predetermined reductions - 5%, 10% and 25% throughout city -- World Health Organization -- even low levels of PM exposure can produce health effects (no “effects threshold” exists) (2) City specific reductions – based on reduction required for the most polluted location, applied throughout city to reach 50 ug/m3 (annual) and 150 ug/m3 (24 hour) Reduction in PM - Assume location specific reductions (3) At higher pollution locations only, reduction needed to reach 50 ug/m3 (annual) and 150 ug/m3 (24 hour) 10% Map of Generic Urban Area 17% 0% 2% 11% (1) (2)(3)

8. Uniform 10% Reduction (# of cases) Health Effect (total population) Osaka 2,598,774 Houston 1,953,631 Bangkok 6,355,144 Seoul 10,207,295 Mortality12635245379 Chronic bronchitis 270956421,631 Cardiovascular disease 34468250818 Pneumonia14228103336 Asthma3886,75839,07296,876 Acute bronchitis2601861,2502,973

9. Uniform City-Specific Reduction (# of cases) Health EffectOsakaHoustonBangkokSeoul Percent Reduction (annual / 24 hour) 2% / 0%0% / 0%17% / 0%43% / 13% Mortality204121,597 Chronic bronchitis7101,0326,118 Cardiovascular disease 0001,063 Pneumonia000436 Asthma000125,716 Acute bronchitis502,05810,920

10. Valuation – Health Willingness To Pay (WTP) – lost wages, avoided pain and suffering, loss of satisfaction, loss of leisure time, etc. Cost Of Illness (COI) – medical expenses for treatment of illness Valuation – Productivity (loss of income) Morbidity - All valuations (both WTP- and COI-based values) included lost wages Mortality Willingness To Pay – Value of foregone production and consumption, leisure time and loss of contact with loved ones Human Capital Loss Value of person is the value of the person’s production only (i.e., discounted present value of person’s expected future wages)

11. CountryOfficial Exchange Rate (per $) PPP Conversion Factor a PPP-Adjusted GNI ($) b Japan113.9 yen157.1 yen$25,170 U.S.1.0 dollar $31,910 Thailand37.8 baht12.7 baht$5,950 Korea1,188.8 won657.1 won$15,530 Currency and Income Comparison (1999) a Amount needed to buy same amount of goods and services as $1 buys in U.S. b Gross National Income per capita in international dollars of equivalent purchase power

12. Value of Each Health Effect - Adjusted for Local Cost of Living ($) Health EffectJapanUSThailandKorea Mortality (US)4,800,0006,120,0001,100,0003,000,000 Mortality (Euro)2,700,0003,360,000630,0001,600,000 Chronic bronchitis260,000331,00062,000160,000 Cardiovascular disease (COI) 15,00018,3873,4008,900 Pneumonia (COI)12,00014,6932,7007,200 Asthma3241820 Acute bronchitis45571128 US dollars; 2010 values in 1999 prices

13. MortalityMorbidity WTPHuman Capital Loss WTPCOIProductivity Loss High Estimate (1) VSL (US) (  =0.4) Chronic bronchitis Asthma attacks Acute bronchitis (  =0.4) Cardio- vascular disease Pneumonia Lost wages High Estimate (2) VSL (US) (  =1.0) Chronic bronchitis Asthma attacks Acute bronchitis (  =1.0) Central Estimate VSL (Euro) (  =1.0) Low Estimate Lost wages Benefits Estimation Scenarios WTP Country B = WTP Country A [Income Country B /Income Country A ]   = income elasticity of WTP (i.e., % change in WTP corresponding to 1% change in income)

14. 2010 Total Benefits Scenarios - Bangkok (million 1999$) Control Scenario High Estimate (1) High Estimate (2) Central Estimate Low Estimate 5%3201107421 10%87031016050 25%2,000730460120 City-Wide1,50052032078 High Pollution Sites Only 8028161.2 CityRange (10% uniform) Osaka92~790 Houston40~250 Seoul310~2,200

15. Issues PM-fine fraction ranges from 1/3 up to over 2/3 Population data do not match monitor locations Osaka - 22 monitors in 16 of 24 districts Bangkok – 9 active monitors in 7 of 50 districts Chemical composition & emission sources Bangkok – diesel vehicles, biomass burning, sea salt, construction dust, (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4, NaNO 3 Seoul – long range transport of yellow dust Climate Wet season / dry season (e.g., Bangkok) Higher fraction of particles (fine and coarse) in dry season Winter / summer Outdoor vs. indoor exposure Pedestrians; cycling commuters & shoppers; street vendors; sidewalk restaurants; pedestrians; auto-rickshaws; open window buses