1. SIP Development Process Overview For the Great Smoky Mountain National Park Transportation Partners Requirements, Scenarios and Timelines Laura Boothe, NCDAQ Mike Abraczinskas, NCDAQ Eddie Dancausse, FHWA February 9, 2005

2. Outline Background on ozone standard General ozone timeline Whats a SIP? Scenarios –Redesignation/Maintenance SIP Requirements vs. –Attainment Demonstration SIP Requirements

3. Background 8-hour ozone standard –If a monitored design value is > 0.08 ppm (84 ppb), that monitor is violating the standard –The design value is defined as: 3-year average of the annual 4 th highest daily maximum 8-hour average

4. NC 8-hr ozone nonattainment areas

5. GSMNP 8-hr Ozone Design Values Monitor Purchase Knob County Haywood 01-03 85 02-04 82 2005* 102 * 4 th highest 8-hr max in 2005 can be no higher than this value in order to continue to be in attainment by the end of the 2005 ozone season. ** Number of times the 4 th highest has been this value or lower in the last 5 years. # ** 5 of 5

6. Ozone Nonattainment Timeline Immediate (June 15, 2004) –New source review One year –Transportation conformity Three years –State Implementation Plan (SIP) – attainment demonstration Five years (or as expeditiously as practicable) –Attain standard (Triangle, RMT, GSMNP) Six years (or as expeditiously as practicable) –Attain standard (Charlotte)

7. Ozone Nonattainment Timeline Definitions for GSMNP Effective date = Transportation conformity date = SIP submittal date = Attainment date = Data used to determine attainment = (Modeling) Attainment year = Redesignation base years = Maintenance years = June 15, 2004 June 15, 2005 June 15, 2007 June 15, 2009* 2006-2008 2008* 2004, 2005, 2006 TBD * Or as early as possible

8. State Implementation Plan (SIP) Need a SIP submittal to EPA within three years –Attainment Demonstration that details the States plan to bring the area into attainment of the Federal standard Most significant emission controls are already underway –Clean Smokestacks Act –Vehicle emissions testing –Ultra-Low sulfur fuels –Cleaner Engines

9. 2 Scenarios are possible Redesignation/Maintenance SIP Attainment Demonstration SIP

10. Scenario Overviews Redesignation/Maintenance SIP –If area attains standard prior to attainment demonstration submittal date (June 2007) –Package containing emissions estimates for the year the area came into attainment and maintenance years –Requires mobile input data for the year the area came into attainment and maintenance years Attainment Demonstration SIP –Submittal 3 years after effective date (June 2007) –Based on comprehensive modeling –Requires mobile input data for only the attainment year (2008)

11. Redesignation/Maintenance SIP Process Overview Area attains standard –Develop emissions inventory for the year area attains standard –Develop maintenance emissions inventories for at least 10 years beyond redesignation approval Determined through Inter-Agency Consultation Process –Develop interim/maintenance emissions inventories 3 to 5 year increments –Compare maintenance emissions to attaining years emissions Maintenance emissions must be lower than attaining years emissions… If not, control strategies must be developed

12. Redesignation/Maintenance SIP Process Overview Develop draft SIP package –Emissions comparisons –Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets –Contingency measures Take draft SIP to public hearing –30 day comment period Submit to EPA anytime prior to June 2007 Update plan 8 years after redesignation –Must examine additional 10 years beyond final maintenance year in redesignation package

13. Redesignation/Maintenance SIP Example Timeline Fall 2004 -> examine ozone data If the area attains 2004 and maintenance years (e.g. 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016) data needed for emissions estimates/comparisons –VMT and speeds Contingency measures –NCDAQ define triggers and follow-up actions. Set motor vehicle emissions budgets –Consultation process… What years? –Safety margins? Public hearing Submit to EPA for approval in late 2005

14. Redesignation/Maintenance SIP Requirements of transportation partners VMT and speeds for attaining year and maintenance years Participate in stakeholder meetings Provide input on additional strategies (if needed) and contingency measures Decision on how Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets are set… –Input on which years to set budgets –County by County (NCDAQs position) –Area wide (Need unanimous agreement with strong justification as to why) Review package during public comment period

15. Attainment Demonstration SIP Process Overview Modeling Attainment year = 2008 –Attainment date June 15, 2009 Develop emissions inventory –2002 inventories –2008 attainment year inventory Comprehensive modeling for 2002 and 2008 –Modeling full ozone season (May - Sept) –Must pass the USEPA modeled attainment test –If not, additional control strategies must be developed and modeled

16. Attainment Demonstration SIP Process Overview Develop draft SIP package –Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for attainment year –Contingency measures Take draft SIP to public hearing –30 day comment period Submit to EPA by June 2007

17. Attainment Demonstration SIP Example Timeline Base year modeling underway –Collected (in 2004) VMT and speed data for 2002 Future year modeling will start Spring 05 –2008 VMT and speed data needed Future year emissions and air quality modeling

18. Attainment Demonstration SIP Example Timeline Must pass the USEPA modeled attainment test –If not, additional control strategies must be developed and modeled Develop draft SIP package –Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for attainment year –Contingency measures Take draft SIP to public hearing –30 day comment period Submit to EPA by June 2007

19. Attainment Demonstration SIP Requirements of transportation partners VMT and speeds for modeled attainment year Participate in stakeholder meetings Provide input on additional strategies (if needed) and contingency measures Decision on how Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets are set… –County by County (NCDAQs position) –Area wide (Need unanimous agreement with strong justification as to why) –No safety margins Review package during public comment period

20. VMT and Speeds Attainment Demonstration (2008) –March 2005 Redesignation (2004 or 2005 & maintenance years) –Spring 2005 for 2004 –October 2005 for 2005

21. Stakeholder Meetings NCDAQ will host periodic technical updates on process –Spring and Fall 2005 at minimum NCDAQ will host consultation meeting(s) on control strategy development (if needed)

22. Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets (MVEBs) If area wide budget –Need unanimous agreement with strong justification as to why by February 2006 Otherwise, county by county

23. Review of Package 30-45 days once package is made public Will announce @ SICM meetings

24. Questions/Comments http://ncair.org Laura Boothe, Chief of Attainment Planning 919-733-1488 Laura.Boothe@ncmail.net Mike Abraczinskas, Environmental Engineer II 919-715-3743 Michael.Abraczinskas@ncmail.net Eddie Dancausse, Air Quality Specialist 919-856-4330 x112 edward.dancausse@fhwa.dot.gov