1. 2006 Chief’s Review Asheville NC, July 24-28 Changing Faces, Changing Places: Demographic Trends of the South Ken Cordell, Southern Research Station, FS R&D, Co- authors Carter Betz, Shela Mou, Gary Green (UGA) and Mike Bowker---Southern Research Station 1950 1970 2000 htt p ://www.oldtelephonebooks.com/phusncab.html

2. http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/ P opulation densities (per square km) Worldwide, 6.3 Million/Month in 2006 The modern-day context of the United States and its Southern Region is population growth

3. World Population = 6.6 billion 2006 Growth 6.3 million/month (U. S. Census Estimates for July 2006) http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/img/worldpch.gif Forecast for 2050, between 8.9 and 9.2 Billion (UN vs US Census)

4. North America is very much a part of the World’s population story

5. POPULATION STATISTICS FOR THE U.S. (2006) Population growth rate per year 0.91% (about 3 million per year) Birth rate 14.14 births/1,000 population Death rate 8.26 deaths/1,000 population Immigration 3.18 migrant(s)/1,000 Life expectancy at birth total population: 77.8 years male: 75.0 years female: 80.8 years (2006 est.) https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html 14.14 – 8.26 + 3.18 = 9.06/1,000

6. Source: Population Reference Bureau analysis of the 2003 American Community Survey Percent Foreign-Born by State, 2003 Immigration adds over 3 million per year

7. Millions Year Trend in Total Population for the South Source: United States Bureau of Census and Woods-Poole Data Projections The Population Trend for the South is much the same as for the U. S.

8. STATE19902006 Percentage Change GEORGIA6512.6029035.05238.73 FLORIDA13033.30717894.08937.30 TEXAS17056.75523126.53835.59 NORTH CAROLINA6664.0168713.15630.75 TENNESSEE4894.4926037.01123.34 VIRGINIA6216.8847660.01623.21 SOUTH CAROLINA3501.1554287.55922.46 ARKANSAS2356.5862811.16219.29 MISSISSIPPI2578.8972947.40314.29 OKLAHOMA3148.8253592.12814.08 KENTUCKY3694.0484203.69613.80 ALABAMA4050.0554599.3713.56 LOUISIANA4221.5324562.5278.08 Source: Woods & Poole CEDDs Series Southern States – Population for 1990 & 2006 and Percentage Change May not reflect Katrina impact

9. 1990 Total Population 1998 Total Population Percent Change 1990- 1998 2006 Total Population Percent Change 1998- 2006 Total population77929.1589373.7014.799469.7111.3 Non-metro counties20629.9422696.3310.023932.795.4 Metro counties57299.2166677.3616.475536.9213.3 Southern Metro and Non-Metro population change for 1990-98 and 1998-2006 (Thousands) Numbers are still growing, but rate is declining somewhat

10. First Chief’s Overview, 1998 Urban = 500/sq. mile Source: Cordell, SRS, Athens GA

11. 2006 and 2030 Projections of population density (growth in numbers per square mile, density, not percentage change) Atlanta

12. Atlanta, GA Source: Nowak 2005 10 Years, Urban = 500 per sq. mile

13. Age Group 1990 Percent Population 1998 Percent Population 2006 Percent Population <1014.814.413.9 10-1914.5 13.9 20-2916.214.1 30-4929.030.328.5 50-6413.014.317.1 65+12.612.512.4 Trend in Southern Population by age group, 1990, 1998, & 2006 Falling Rising

14. StatePersons below 35Persons above 65 Florida43.817.0 Arkansas47.613.9 Alabama47.313.2 Oklahoma48.713.1 South Carolina47.712.7 Tennessee46.912.6 Kentucky47.012.5 Mississippi50.212.1 North Carolina48.512.1 Louisiana49.911.7 Virginia47.311.5 Texas52.89.8 Georgia51.19.6 Percent of Population in the South by Age and State, 2006

15. The number of seniors (65+) is projected to continue to rise through 2030 (thousands/county)

16. StateBlackHispanicAsian Texas11.235.63.4 Florida15.719.92.2 Georgia28.96.72.8 Oklahoma8.36.42.0 North Carolina21.86.31.9 Virginia20.15.94.8 Arkansas16.14.21.1 South Carolina30.23.11.2 Tennessee17.02.91.4 Louisiana33.42.71.6 Alabama26.82.31.0 Kentucky7.72.01.1 Mississippi37.21.60.9 Percentage of Population by State and Race

17. YEAR PERCENT Racial and Ethnic Diversity will rise in the future

18. Diversity rising most in South Texas, along the Mississippi, the Piedmont of NC/SC/GA, Mid-AL, and South Florida

19. Employment 1990 Percent 2010 Percent 2030 Percent Farm2.81.91.5 Agricultural Services, Other1.11.4 Mining1.40.7 Construction5.86.2 Manufacturing14.08.97.3 Transportation, Communications, Public Utilities4.95.25.4 Wholesale Trade4.74.34.1 Retail Trade16.816.215.5 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate6.87.97.4 Services25.432.836.7 Federal Civilian Government2.41.51.3 Federal Military Government2.71.51.3 State & Local Government11.4 Percent of Population by Type of Employment by Year Down/Up

20. Amenity migration has added new meaning to the phrase “Urban National Forests”

21. As the senior population expands, National Forests are increasingly the natural amenity drawing them as retirees

22. Total Number of Days of Recreation Participation Across Nature-based Activities with Percent of Market Share The South’s population is 30.8 percent of total U.S. recreation demand (days of) Source: NSRE Athens GA

23. State POPESTIMATE200 5 Alabama4,557,808 Arkansas2,779,154 Florida17,789,864 Georgia9,072,576 Kentucky4,173,405 Louisiana4,523,628 Mississippi2,921,088 North Carolina 8,683,242 Oklahoma3,547,884 South Carolina 4,255,083 Tennessee5,962,959 Texas22,859,968 Virginia7,567,465 98,694,124 Updated Source: So. Forest Resources Assessment Historical Population Trend for the South-----Why are all these Demographic Trends Important??

24. Millions Year There will be forest management challenges brought about by growing and diversifying population in the South Source: United States Bureau of Census and Woods-Poole Data Projections Loss of open space Catastrophic events Hazardous fuels

25. 1. Population growth is driving rapid urban expansion (Nowak’s projections of urban 2000 to 2050) Urban = 500 person/sq. mile

26. Percent Urban (2010)

27. Percent Urban (2020)

28. Percent Urban (2030)

29. Percent Urban (2040)

30. Percent Urban (2050)

31. Description of Area U.S. (n=4988) North (n=2098 ) South (n=1342 ) Rocky Mtns. (n=932) Pacific Coast (n=616) Established downtown area 9.29.7 8.6 9.6 Established older residential area near downtown 24.926.5 20.7 22.031.2 Established newer residential area 14.514.3 13.9 17.912.7 Newly developing area where building is active9.97.611.811.511.0 New residential and preexisting rural house and farms16.917.917.615.314.7 Rural area with little new development 21.120.0 24.1 21.418.3 Don’t know 3.54.0 3.3 2.5 Total 100.0 100.00 2. A lot more people live in the interface area, which we define as developing rural ( Source, Athens Research Group ) (Percent of Population) 30% More People living in the woods

32. Five Example NF Values from our survey of the General Public Age 16-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465+ Protect streams and other sources of clean water 77.188.690.087.689.981.2 Use and manage forest areas in ways that leave them natural in appearance 56.470.273.270.573.057.6 Emphasize planting and management of trees for an abundant timber supply 41.758.862.8 67.361.2 Provide access, facilities, and services for outdoor recreation 28.239.640.947.348.450.9 Provide access to raw materials and products for local industries and communities 18.220.019.720.223.926.7 High/Low 3. Aging of the population matters w.r.t. forest values

33. Race NATIONAL FOREST VALUES of General Public White, NH Black, NH Amer. Ind. NH Asian/ PI, NH His- panic Protect streams and other sources of clean water 86.984.193.378.284.2 Use and manage forest areas in ways that leave them natural in appearance 68.861.380.068.865.9 Emphasize planting and management of trees for an abundant timber supply 60.255.480.050.056.1 Provide access, facilities, and services for outdoor recreation 41.051.566.740.643.9 Provide access to raw materials for local industries and communities 19.023.813.325.039.0 Blue = lowest % Red = highest % 4. Rising diversity matters w.r.t. forest values

34. Age Group Visiting Wilderness Driving Off Road Mountain Biking Viewing Natural Scenery Viewing Birds Family Gatherings 16-3436.527.324.155.422.778.1 35-5433.818.018.262.935.677.5 55+22.810.37.155.539.567.9 All Ages31.619.017.058.232.374.9 5. Changing age distribution of the South’s population will likely change recreation demands Source: National Survey on Recreation and the Environment, Athens, GA

35. Group WalkingSwimming Outdoors HikingDriving Off-road Downhill Skiing Big Game Hunting Race/Ethnicity White1.021.151.031.131.201.28 Black1.000.490.340.630.330.27 Amer. Indian1.00 1.141.57 2.00 Asian/ PI1.080.920.960.851.460.23 Hispanic0.880.751.420.740.550.43 Place of Birth United States1.021.040.931.05 1.07 Foreign Born0.810.561.670.480.440.30 Index of participants-to-total population for 6 outdoor activities by race and place of birth (national) 6. Rising diversity will likely change recreation demand

36. Rising population, aging, and growing diversity will mean changing local demand as well, e.g., the Pisgah Source: National Survey on Recreation and the Environment, Athens GA Research Group (http://www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends/RECUPDATES/NFR 8/pisgah1.html#nbhm)

37. PISGAH National Forest Local Area-- Population age 16 and older by race and age Population stratumAge 16- 34 %Age 35- 53 %Age 55+%All Ages 16+ Hispanic males72,31161.537,46731.87,8676.7117,645 Hispanic females44,21057.624,72232.27,85010.276,782 White males658,13931.3793,50837.8648,60830.92,100,255 White females645,06328.5810,39835.8806,70535.72,262,166 Black males119,39242.2109,11438.554,61619.3283,122 Black females126,68038.1127,23138.279,01723.7332,928 Native American males3,90638.73,93038.92,26722.410,103 Native American females3,63635.44,12640.12,51724.510,279 Asian & Pacific Islander males15,01146.012,67338.84,95715.232,641 Asian & Pacific Islander females 14,76443.813,45439.95,50716.333,725 1,703,112 1,936,623 1,619,911 5,259,646 Source: National Survey on Recreation and the Environment, Athens GA Research Group (http://www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends/RECUPDATES/NFR R8/pisgah1.html#nbhm) 7. Changing local populations at all NFs

38. PISGAH National Forest Local Area Percent (%) and number (#) of people age 16 and older participating in outdoor recreation by age group (Source: Recreation Research, Athens GA) Viewing/Learning Activities: HISPANIC MALES ActivityAge 16-34 % Age 16-34 # Age 35-54 % Age 35-54 # Age 55+ % Age 55+ # All Ages % View/photograph natural scenery48.234,82249.418,49844.93,53648.3 Visit nature centers, etc.63.145,62962.223,32046.73,67361.7 Sightseeing35.525,67740.415,13738.12,99737.2 Visit historic sites40.329,11842.415,88733.72,65540.5 View/photograph other wildlife31.422,70332.812,27127.92,19231.6 View wildflowers, trees, etc.26.118,88034.712,99936.92,90229.6 View/photograph birds16.411,87823.78,86825.01,96719.3 Gather mushrooms, berries, etc.28.320,46622.48,38116.91,33225.7 View/photograph fish22.716,44123.88,92117.71,39222.7 Visit prehistoric/archeological sites21.415,50520.07,49522.31,75721.0

39. 2006 Chief’s Review Asheville NC, July 24-28 Changing Faces, Changing Places: Demographic Trends of the South Ken Cordell, Southern Research Station, FS R&D 1950 1970 2000 htt p ://www.oldtelephonebooks.com/phusncab.html

41. States White (thousands) Black (thousands) American Indian & Alaskan Native (thousands) Asian & Pacific Islander (thousands) Hispanic (thousands) 199020002005199020002005199020002005199020002005199020002005 Alabama2986326233911024113711831718 223440253742 Arkansas195321862286375409423131516131922203340 Florida110291258813332179323262573375158159267316159523902845 Georgia46535436571317622279251514171878142168110189226 Kentucky340436713760265287298666182933223238 Louisiana2857289529231302144815211920 42627294119138 Mississippi16391774182691710121049988131923162124 North Carolina505258516160147017381857819498549611377121139 Oklahoma26182759282523628231125828129535515887124143 South Carolina2422266027811046115612058882333 314250 Tennessee406646584887782929999101214325766335767 Texas1457916920179162057254327977395107336562667437558756624 Virginia4860529554571174141615261619 164267320162269322 Population of the 13 Southern States by Race---1990, 2000, & 2005 Source: Census Bureau, Projected state populations by sex, race, and hispanic origin: 1995-2025, & Population estimates for states by race and hispanic origin: July 1, 1990.