1. Addressing Emissions from Mobile Sources Sameer Akbar The World Bank National Workshop on Urban Air Pollution Lahore, Pakistan December 13-15, 2004

2. Content 1.Background and Context 2.Questions for appraisal of policy options to tackle emissions from urban transport Dhaka example: phase out of two-stroke three-wheelers

3. 1. Background and Context

4. Emissions Dispersion Modeling Meteorology Ambient Concentration Population Distribution & Activity Exposure Assessment Exposure Damage Assessment Dose-Response Air Quality Management System Establish objectives, identify data gaps, studies and pilots Identify, analyze and select management options Develop and implement Action Plan Issues Technical Economic Institutional Legal Policy Social Stakeholder Involvement Options Fuels & Vehicle Technology Traffic Management Standards Economic Incentives and Disincentives Emission Management Schematic of Integrated Air Quality Management

5. Why do We Care About Urban Air Pollution?  Human health impacts WHO estimated more than 150,000 attributable deaths to urban air pollution in South Asia in 2002. WHO estimated more than 150,000 attributable deaths to urban air pollution in South Asia in 2002. Morbidity numbers are much higher. Morbidity numbers are much higher. Other environmental externalities and concerns Other environmental externalities and concerns Damage to natural and physical capital, amenity losses, noise, contribution to climate change Damage to natural and physical capital, amenity losses, noise, contribution to climate change Note: Average for 6 developing cities Source: Lvovsky et al. The relative burden of environmental damages

6. Role of Urban Transport Important contributor to air pollution Important contributor to air pollution  Lead from gasoline—a problem of the past in South Asia as they have phased out leaded gasoline  Fine and ultrafine particles in vehicle exhaust—main concern now  Ozone precursors (HC and NOx) in vehicle exhaust— emerging problem for the future Current reality Current reality  Old polluting fleets and low replacement rates  Fuel adulteration, poor fuel quality and vehicle maintenance culture  Weak administrative capacity to regulate and monitor Future challenge Future challenge  Rising income and motorization will increase pollution unless concerted measures are taken

7. 2. Questions for appraisal of policy options to tackle emissions from urban transport

8. Question 1: Are the adverse impacts of urban air pollution serious? Is the impact of urban air pollution on public health and lost productivity considerable compared to other threats, such as:  Lack of access to safe drinking water  Extensive use of dirty fuels in households Yes :identify problem pollutants No : look for environmental benefits that can be achieved through “no regret” adjustments to transport policy.

9. Question 2:Which pollutants cause the most damage ? Pollutants should be ranked according to toxicity, ambient concentrations, and exposure. Pollutants should be ranked according to toxicity, ambient concentrations, and exposure.  Fine particulate matter is the pollutant of most concern in South Asia. A common mistake is to rank on the basis of emissions in weight based on an emissions inventory. A common mistake is to rank on the basis of emissions in weight based on an emissions inventory.  Toxicity is not taken into account.  Emissions in weight are not directly proportional to ambient concentrations or exposure.

10. Question 3: Does transport contribute significantly to the problem pollutants? Need to identify the relative significance of sources contributing the most to the general population’s exposure to fine particulate air pollution. Need to identify the relative significance of sources contributing the most to the general population’s exposure to fine particulate air pollution.  Large industrial plant  Small and medium size industries, diesel generators.  Household consumption of solid fuels (biomass).  Vehicular emissions.  Leaf and informal refuse burning.  Re-suspension of road-dust. Yes : identify sources within the transport sector No : look for environmental benefits that can be achieved through “no regret” adjustments to transport policy.

11. Sources within the transport sector

12. Addressing emissions per unit of fuel consumed Fuel and lubricant standards and options Fuel and lubricant standards and options  Use of cleaner fuels Vehicle emission standards, enforcement, and incentives Vehicle emission standards, enforcement, and incentives  Ensuring compliance

13. Addressing fuel consumption per unit of transport service Increasing vehicle fuel efficiency Increasing vehicle fuel efficiency  New and improved technology Encouraging non-motorized transport Encouraging non-motorized transport  Provision of pedestrian spaces and cycle lanes Improving traffic management Improving traffic management  Traffic signaling systems Supporting fiscal incentives Supporting fiscal incentives  Introducing competition in franchising of public transport

14. Reducing total transport Restraining demand for movement Restraining demand for movement  Integrating land use and transport planning Influencing modal choice Influencing modal choice  Congestion pricing Restraining private vehicle use Restraining private vehicle use  Parking policies

15. Possible Policy Instruments Fuel Quality Improvement Fuel Quality Improvement Vehicle Technology Improvement Vehicle Technology Improvement Traffic Management Traffic Management Public Transport Regulation and Control Public Transport Regulation and Control Vehicle Replacement Strategies Vehicle Replacement Strategies Land Use Policies Land Use Policies Fiscal Policies Fiscal Policies

16. Question 4: How to decide on policy instruments to be used? Summary considerations. Urban transport policy will be driven by mobility and development concerns Urban transport policy will be driven by mobility and development concerns Seek synergies with transport objectives and face trade-offs to reduce air pollution Seek synergies with transport objectives and face trade-offs to reduce air pollution One size doesn’t fit all ! One size doesn’t fit all ! The institutional and policy framework is fundamental to long-term solutions The institutional and policy framework is fundamental to long-term solutions Technology will provide major environmental gains but will rarely be successful in a vacuum Technology will provide major environmental gains but will rarely be successful in a vacuum Work with and not against economic incentives Work with and not against economic incentives

17. 3. Dhaka Example: 2-stroke phase out

18. Air Quality in Dhaka …1818 Air quality objective Monsoon period – Air Quality OK Non-monsoon period – Air Quality is poor Note: PM is the major pollutant of concern in Dhaka.

19. Two Stroke Three-wheelers: a problem in Dhaka About 50,000 two-stroke engine gasoline- fueled three-wheelers, nicknamed “baby- taxis,” provided useful point-to-point transportation for Dhaka population. About 50,000 two-stroke engine gasoline- fueled three-wheelers, nicknamed “baby- taxis,” provided useful point-to-point transportation for Dhaka population. These were major sources of particulate and hydrocarbon emissions in Dhaka. These were major sources of particulate and hydrocarbon emissions in Dhaka. Emissions were exacerbated by the use of inferior-quality and excess lubricant (called straight mineral oil). Emissions were exacerbated by the use of inferior-quality and excess lubricant (called straight mineral oil).

20. Dimension of the strategy Understanding of the Problem – Health, Technical options, Social, Fuel and Lube, dissemination, economic, etc. Understanding of the Problem – Health, Technical options, Social, Fuel and Lube, dissemination, economic, etc. Stakeholder consultation – extensive throughout the process – a key Stakeholder consultation – extensive throughout the process – a key Public awareness and support through information dissemination – media support Public awareness and support through information dissemination – media support Vision – milestones, legal conditions, etc. Vision – milestones, legal conditions, etc. Policy support and use of Import tariffs Policy support and use of Import tariffs Praying - for a political champion Praying - for a political champion

21. Getting on the Right Track Identifying and meeting stakeholders to understand different views & issues (1996) Identifying and meeting stakeholders to understand different views & issues (1996) Study tour of stakeholders to India (1997) Study tour of stakeholders to India (1997) Continuous liaison with press - 1996 onwards Continuous liaison with press - 1996 onwards Workshop on AQM in Dhaka to better understand emission sources and issues (1998) Workshop on AQM in Dhaka to better understand emission sources and issues (1998) Survey of public opinion found good support Survey of public opinion found good support Proposed Baby Taxi phase-out by 1 st Jan. 2003 in WB-funded Dhaka Urban Transport Project (DUTP) as a legal covenant; a phased approach. Proposed Baby Taxi phase-out by 1 st Jan. 2003 in WB-funded Dhaka Urban Transport Project (DUTP) as a legal covenant; a phased approach.

22. Key Actions Undertaken in 1999-2000 DUTP Covenants Implemented DUTP Covenants Implemented  BRTA stopped registration of 2-stroke 3-wheeler by July, 1999  GOB imposed 200% Supplementary duty on 2-stroke 3- wheeler in July, 2000 effectively banning import Training and Capacity Building Training and Capacity Building  Training for mechanics (April 2000): 427 mechanics trained in maintenance for emission reduction.  Auto-clinics (Oct.-Nov. 2000): Emission reduction demonstrated with the use of better lubricants and maintenance on 1000 vehicles.  Seminar on Lube oil and Gasoline Quality for Air Quality Improvement: Nov. 21, 2000  Revision of lube oil standards by BPC: 1 st January, 2001

23. Final Countdown To Phase-out August 2002: Earlier plan revised with stakeholder input for a two stage phase-out -- 1 st Sept. 2002 (pre-1995) and final 1 st Jan. 2003. August 2002: Earlier plan revised with stakeholder input for a two stage phase-out -- 1 st Sept. 2002 (pre-1995) and final 1 st Jan. 2003. 1 st Sept. 2002: First step of phase-out executed => Air is Cleaner! 1 st Sept. 2002: First step of phase-out executed => Air is Cleaner! Baby-Taxis go on a 3-day strike. Baby-Taxis go on a 3-day strike. Strong press and public support for phase-out demonstrated. Strong press and public support for phase-out demonstrated. Replacement CNG-powered 4-stroke 3-wheelers start arriving as a result of lowering of taxes. Replacement CNG-powered 4-stroke 3-wheelers start arriving as a result of lowering of taxes. 1 st Jan. 2003: Phase-out completed => Air is much cleaner! 1 st Jan. 2003: Phase-out completed => Air is much cleaner! Good public support but some criticism in media for failure to address the phase-out impact. Good public support but some criticism in media for failure to address the phase-out impact.  Quite serious transport dislocation.  Social impact partially addressed: Some owners and drivers were provided with 4-stroke 3-wheelers and bus leases through their associations. But no serious protest from the affected groups.

24. PM10 concentrations in Dhaka declined by 31%

25. Health Benefits Estimated decline in average yearly PM 10 level of 24  g/m 3 Estimated decline in average yearly PM 10 level of 24  g/m 3 More than 900 premature deaths estimated to be avoided per year More than 900 premature deaths estimated to be avoided per year About $25 million estimated to be saved in health maintenance costs per year About $25 million estimated to be saved in health maintenance costs per year (Methodology Used: K. Lvovsky et al Environmental Cost of Fossil Fuels: A Rapid Assessment Method with Application to Six Cities, Environment Department Paper No. 78 (2000), The World Bank, Washington.)

26. Livelihood Impact Drivers: 86,000 Drivers: 86,000 Owners: 10,000 Owners: 10,000 Workshop owners: 600 Workshop owners: 600 Mechanic and helpers: 2,600 Mechanic and helpers: 2,600 Dependents: 500,000 Dependents: 500,000

27. Lessons Learnt Socially difficult environmental decisions can be executed if there is strong support from the public. Socially difficult environmental decisions can be executed if there is strong support from the public.  Public support can be created by working with the stakeholders and the press on genuine issues. Ultimately such decisions are fundamentally the result of political Ultimately such decisions are fundamentally the result of political  Correct management of technical issues help to create the room for the political will. Careful and long-term planning is needed for the mitigation of adverse impacts on both the public and the stakeholders. Careful and long-term planning is needed for the mitigation of adverse impacts on both the public and the stakeholders.  The transport services lost was not replaced immediately (or soon after), and this created disruptions to transport services, has led to the entry of private diesel buses, thus negating some of the gains of air quality improvement.

28. Thank You! http://www.worldbank.org/sarurbanair