1. Climate Change Adaptation and Policy Innovation Subsidiarity, Diversity and Redundancy Amanda H. Lynch Institute for the Study of Environment and Society Brown University ISES

2. Policy Reform Models Reform of environmental policy and decisions is most likely to fail when a threat to a power or value position is perceived. When this occurs, the credibility, admissibility, or domain of scientific knowledge is often called into question One model to explore this dynamic is the theory of diffusion of innovation. Rogers, E.M. (1995) Diffusion of Innovations, 4th ed. Free Press, New York

3. Diffusion of Innovation Who innovates? What promotes innovation? What determines diffusion? How do these processes manifest in centralized and decentralized decision making structures?

4. Centralized and Decentralized Decisions CentralizedDecentralized Innovation utilizes primarily expert sources. Consultation often pro forma. Innovation relies on practitioners in regional government, communities and industry. Diffusion occurs as a uniform package.Diffusion occurs through adoption and adaptation. Primary advantage: Access to formal power, including sanctions and resources, can ensure robust environmental outcomes. Allocative efficiency of resources is enhanced by rich detail in cost/benefit analysis. Examples Wetland restoration in Yellow River Delta Colorado River Basin and “The Law of the River” Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement EU health care and education EU environmental regulation

5. Case Analysis: Murray-Darling R. Basin Australia’s three longest rivers 14% of Australian land area, across 4 states and 1 territory Red gum forests, grass plains, intensive agriculture, small towns 52% of Australia’s water consumption 41% Australia’s gross national agricultural product 35 endangered birds, 16 endangered mammals, 20 mammals already extinct “Law of the River” “Murray-Darling Basin Authority”

6. Objective of Study “Principle 7: The best available knowledge (including scientific, local and cultural knowledge), evidence and analysis should be used where practicable to ensure credibility, transparency and usefulness of monitoring and evaluation findings” (Murray- Darling Basin Authority, 2012, p.147). We implemented a survey framework using Q- methodology to develop empirical evidence of the the sources and processes of policy innovation and diffusion concerning water allocations during drought and risk management during flood. Lynch A.H., C.E. Adler and N.C. Howard 2014: Policy Diffusion in Arid Basin Water Management in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia: A Q Method Approach. Regional Environmental Change. (to appear)

7. Participant Perspectives

8. 1. Benign Command and Control Promotes protecting the river though government regulation. Supports the Commonwealth water buyback scheme to underpin environmental flows. Strong focus on allowing bank over-topping as a natural environmental renewal process. Seeks exercise of formal power through government regulation and enforcement. “YES!! The abuse & overuse must stop. Sadly, most people won't until they HAVE to.”

9. 2. Supported Industry Innovation Promotes government assistance for local practitioner innovation. Concerned about flexibility of water allocation programs as region oscillates between drought and flood. Places the policy question in the context of national food security and viability of export industry. “You can’t be GREEN if you are in the RED.”

10. 3. Culture and Community Promotes legitimate engagement with long time residents, including Indigenous Traditional Owners in co-management agreements. Community sustainability outweighs broader economic and environmental outcomes. Innovation arises through shared experience. Mistrust of government and science. “The Murray-Darling Basin Plan will only focus on economic relief for the most tax protected people in the world FARMERS”

11. Is there any common ground? Scientific and federal government expert contributions to the development of policy, which has been the hallmark of the Murray-Darling Basin planning process, does not enjoy strong support in the community or in industry. There is an implicit understanding across all respondents that government will ultimately be the final determinant of policy, BUT Successful diffusion of water policy innovation is not likely to be achieved using the present strategies (“invite, inform, ignore”) While policy innovations are being generated, the diffusion of policy is still sufficiently contested that it remains an open question as to whether the Plan will survive judicial scrutiny.

12. What have we learned? The centralized approach to water governance and other environmental management problems has advantages in access to expert knowledge, formal power and resources, but disadvantages in access to local knowledge of dynamically evolving conditions. We know that: ongoing prosperity and wellbeing depend on increasing the resilience of this system. uncertainty can be addressed as long as policy innovations don’t “bet the farm.” context matters – geophysical, ecological, social, economic…

13. What have we learned? Diversity, rather than efficiency, is a goal value of decentralized systems. I argue that in the Murray-Darling Basin, and in most contexts affected by the impacts of climate change, this goal is key. Just as biodiversity can be evolutionary “money in the bank”, the flexibility, redundancy and diversity of decentralized systems have an “innovation dividend”: a reserve of creative potential that enhances resilience in the face of future shocks.