1. ISPI Energy Watch Geopolitics of energy Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa – 24 April 2015 Matteo Verda Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale - Milano

2. ISPI Energy Watch C ONTENTS Introduction Geopolitics of oil Case: North America Case: Sovereign Wealth Funds Geopolitics of natural gas Case: Europe and Russia Geopolitics of other sources Geopolitics of GHG emissions

3. ISPI Energy Watch I NTRO / B ASICS What is energy? Energy is the ability to do work. Energy can be produced from a variety of sources. Energy can be also transformed into other forms of energy. The amount of energy we can use depends on the availability of technology and external inputs. Geopolitics is politics (esp. relations between states) as influenced by geographical factors (OED). Geopolitics of energy is based on the uneven distribution of energy sources, technology, and final consumption.

4. ISPI Energy Watch Mtoe I NTRO / E NERGY CONSUMPTION Source: elaboration on IEA.

5. ISPI Energy Watch Mtoe Source: elaboration on IEA. I NTRO / E NERGY MIX

6. ISPI Energy Watch I NTRO / E NERGY MIX, PER COUNTRY Source: elaboration on IEA.

7. ISPI Energy Watch I NTRO / E NERGY SOURCES S OURCE PROCONTRA coal - availability - costs - local emissions - GHG emissions oil - calorific value - existing stock of technology - costs - GHG emissions - concentration of reserves natural gas - costs - GHG emissions - concentration of reserves nuclear - reliability of supply - GHG emissions - duality - investment costs - dismantling costs - social issues renewables - reliability of supply - GHG emissions - costs - discontinuity of supply

8. ISPI Energy Watch G EOPOLITICS OF OIL

9. ISPI Energy Watch C OUNTRY R ESERVES ( TH. M BBL ) S HARE Σ S HARE A REA (M KM 2 ) E NDOWMENT ( K B BL / KM 2 ) 1Venezuela298,317,7% 0,9327,1 2Saudi Arabia265,915,8%33,4% 2,1123,7 3Canada174,310,3%43,8% 10,017,5 4Iran157,09,3%53,1% 1,695,3 5Iraq150,08,9%61,9% 0,4342,2 6Kuwait101,56,0%68,0% 0,05.696,5 7United Arab Emirates97,85,8%73,7% 0,11.169,9 8Russian Federation93,05,5%79,3% 17,15,4 9Libya48,52,9%82,1% 1,827,5 10USA44,22,6%84,8% 9,84,5 World 1.687,9136,412,4 O IL / R ESERVES AND GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION Source: elaboration on BP and CIA.

10. ISPI Energy Watch O IL / M AJOR PRODUCERS Source: Eni.

11. ISPI Energy Watch Source: elaboration on BP. Mbbl/d O IL / M AJOR EXPORTERS The World Top 10 (2013)

12. ISPI Energy Watch O IL / G LOBAL TRADE Source: BP.

13. ISPI Energy Watch O IL / M ARITIME CHOKEPOINTS

14. ISPI Energy Watch O IL / R ESERVES DISTRIBUTION Source: Eni.

15. ISPI Energy Watch Source: Eni. O IL / Y EARS OF PRODUCTION LEFT, PER COUNTRY

16. ISPI Energy Watch Source: Eni. O IL / Y EARS OF PRODUCTION LEFT, PER REGION

17. ISPI Energy Watch O IL / R ESERVES HOLDERS Source: Eni. Majors: Eni, BP, Repsol, Total, Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil.

18. ISPI Energy Watch Source: Eni. O IL / R ESERVES HOLDERS PER REGION

19. ISPI Energy Watch O IL / P RICE TRENDS Brent Spot Price (USD/bbl), monthly average – Source: EIA. $/bbl

20. ISPI Energy Watch O IL / L ONG - TERM PRICE TRENDS Brent Spot Price, yearly average – Source: EIA and BP. $/bbl

21. ISPI Energy Watch C ASE : N ORTH A MERICA

22. ISPI Energy Watch USA USA + Canada Source: elaboration on BP and IEA. O IL / A MERICAN TRENDS

23. ISPI Energy Watch Source: elaboration on IEA. O IL / US IMPORTS Mbbl/d

24. ISPI Energy Watch C ASE : E NERGY, ECONOMY AND POLITICAL STABILITY

25. ISPI Energy Watch Source: elaboration on World Bank. R ENTS / D EPENDENCE ON EXPORT

26. ISPI Energy Watch R ENTS / E NERGY RENTS AND POLITICAL STABILITY $/bbl Source: elaboration on IMF and Deutsche Bank.

27. ISPI Energy Watch R ENTS / S OVEREIGN W EALTH F UND IN THE MENA REGION F UND C OUNTRY R ESERVES ( BN $) 1Abu Dhabi Investment AuthorityUAE589 2Kuwait Investment AuthorityKuwait548 3Qatar Investment AuthorityQatar305 4Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency Investment PortfolioSaudi Arabia230 5Abu Dhabi Investment CouncilUAE90 6International Petroleum Investment CompanyUAE69 7Mubadala Development Co.UAE61 8Libyan Investment AuthorityLibya60 9State General Reserve Fund of the Sultanate of OmanOman35 10Emirates Investment AuthorityUAE22 11Oman Investment FundOman17 12Bahrain Mumtalakat Holding CompanyBahrain11 Source: elaboration on official statistics by Antonino Alì.

28. ISPI Energy Watch G EOPOLITICS OF NATURAL GAS

29. ISPI Energy Watch G EOPOLITICS OF NATURAL GAS C OUNTRY R ESERVES (T MC ) S HARE Σ S HARE A REA (M KM 2 ) E NDOWMENT (M CM / KM 2 ) 1Iran36,318,2% 1,622,0 2Russian Federation33,516,8%35,0%17,12,0 3Qatar26,513,3%48,3%0,02.286,6 4Turkmenistan18,89,4%57,7%0,538,4 5USA10,05,0%62,8%9,81,0 6Saudi Arabia8,84,4%67,2%2,14,1 7United Arab Emirates6,53,3%70,5%0,178,2 8Venezuela6,03,0%73,5%0,96,6 9Nigeria5,52,7%76,2%0,95,9 10Algeria4,82,4%78,6%2,42,0 World199,4136,41,5 Source: elaboration on BP and CIA.

30. ISPI Energy Watch Source: Eni. G AS / P RODUCERS

31. ISPI Energy Watch Source: Eni. G AS / C ONSUMERS

32. ISPI Energy Watch Source: Eni. G AS / E XPORTERS

33. ISPI Energy Watch Source: Eni. G AS / I MPORTERS

34. ISPI Energy Watch Source: BP. G AS / T RADE FLOWS

35. ISPI Energy Watch G AS / L IQUEFIED NATURAL GAS EXPORTS Source: GIIGNL.

36. ISPI Energy Watch G AS / R EGIONAL MARKETS

37. ISPI Energy Watch Source: European Commission. G AS / R EGIONAL MARKETS AND PRICE TRENDS $/MMBTU

38. ISPI Energy Watch Source: Eni. G AS / R ESERVES

39. ISPI Energy Watch G AS / Y EARS OF PRODUCTION LEFT, PER REGION Source: Eni.

40. ISPI Energy Watch Source: Eni. G AS / Y EARS OF PRODUCTION LEFT, PER COUNTRY

41. ISPI Energy Watch Majors: Eni, BP, Repsol, Total, Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil. Source: Eni. G AS / R ESERVES HOLDERS

42. ISPI Energy Watch Source: Eni. G AS / R ESERVES HOLDERS, PER REGION

43. ISPI Energy Watch C ASE : E UROPE AND R USSIA

44. ISPI Energy Watch

45. G AS / EU SUPPPLY 2014 – Source: elaboration on Eurostat.

46. ISPI Energy Watch

49. Gazprom Export Ukraine transit Ukraine transit transit /total Russian gas /consump. 201220132012201320122013 Italy14,324,114,324,1100% 35% Germany31,538,220,011,163%29% 43% Cezch Rep.6,97,06,97,0100% 86% Hungary5,05,75,05,7100% 61% Slovakia4,05,14,05,1100% Austria5,0 100% 60% France7,67,82,93,038%39% 17% Bulgaria2,42,62,42,6100% 94% Greece2,42,52,42,5100% 66% Romania2,11,12,11,1100% 10% Slovenia0,5 100% 73% other EU23,026,90,0 --13% tot. EU104,7126,565,567,762%54%27% Turkey25,725,313,312,452%49%58% other Europe1,31,71,31,7100% tot. Europe131,7153,580,181,861%53% G AS / R USSIAN CUSTOMERS IN E UROPE Billiion cubic meters – Source: elaboration on GazpromExport, Eurostat, Eurogas, BP and Pirani (2014).

50. ISPI Energy Watch Entry point daily maxyearly max (Mmc)(Bmc) Ukrainian system 452148 Slovakia 28192 Romania 10334 Hungary 5518 Poland 124 Nord StreamGermany 16053 Yamal-EuropePoland 10234 Blue StreamTurkey 4916 otherFinland, Baltics 7224 total 835274 G AS / R USSIAN EXPORT INFRASTRUCTURE 2014. Yearly max based on a 90% utilisation factor – Source: elaboration on ENTSOG.

51. ISPI Energy Watch G AS / EU DEMAND DECLINE Bcm Source: elaboration on European Commission.

52. ISPI Energy Watch 2014 – Source: UNCTAD, FT, IMF, BBC, EBRD. R USSIA / D EPENDENCE ON ENERGY PRODUCTION

53. ISPI Energy Watch G EOPOLITICS OF OTHER SOURCES

54. ISPI Energy Watch Mtoe Source: elaboration on IEA. N UCLEAR / C ONSUMPTION

55. ISPI Energy Watch N UCLEAR / S TATUS OF NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAMMES End-2013 – Source: IEA.

56. ISPI Energy Watch Source: elaboration on IEA. C OAL / C ONSUMPTION Mtoe

57. ISPI Energy Watch Source: elaboration on BP. C OAL / R ESERVES C OUNTRY R ESERVES (M T ) S HARE Σ S HARE P/R RATIO 1USA237.29527% 266 2Russian Federation157.01018%44%452 3China114.50013%57%31 4Australia76.4009%66%160 5India60.6007%72%100 6EU56.0826%79%103 7Ukraine33.8734%83%384 8Kazakhstan33.6004%86%293 9South Africa30.1563%90%117 10Indonesia28.0173%93%67 World891.531113

58. ISPI Energy Watch Source: elaboration on IEA. R ENEWABLES / C ONSUMPTION Mtoe

59. ISPI Energy Watch G EOPOLITICS OF GHG EMISSIONS

60. ISPI Energy Watch Source: elaboration on IEA. GHG EMISSIONS / E XPECTED TRENDS Mt CO 2

61. ISPI Energy Watch Source: elaboration on IEA. GHG EMISSIONS / EU AND THE REST OF THE W ORLD

62. ISPI Energy Watch Source: elaboration on IEA. GHG EMISSIONS / EU AND THE REST OF THE W ORLD Mt CO 2

63. ISPI Energy Watch GHG EMISSIONS / COP-21 COMMITMENTS EU: 40% emission reduction commitment by 2030 compared to 1990. China: peak of emissions in 2030, wihtout any quantitative commitment. USA: 26-28% emission reduction commitment by 2025 compared to 2005. India: no commitment on emissions; perspective increase of taxation on coal. Russia: 25-30% emission reduction commitment by 2030 compared to 1990. Japan: 20% emission reduction commitment by 2030 compared to 2005.

64. ISPI Energy Watch Matteo Verda Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale (ISPI) – Milano mail:matteo.verda@unipv.it blog:www.sicurezzaenergetica.it twitter:@matteoverda linkedin:Linkedin.com/in/matteoverda C ONTACTS

65. ISPI Energy Watch