1. ESA SW Application – November 2005 ESA Space Weather Application initiative A. Hilgers, A. Glover, E. Daly Space Environments and Effects Sectioin, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands C. de Matos and F. Ongaro EUI-A, ESA-HQ, Paris

2. ESA SW Application – November 2005 SCI –Ulysses –Cluster –SOHO –… EO –GMES –Meteosat –Metop –SWARM EUI –Telecom –Galileo TEC –Space Env and Effects –Radio Propagation OPS –Satellite tracking –Drag –Anomaly analysis DG-V –Astronomy sc scientific operations Other…

3. ESA SW Application – November 2005 Historical Background of ESA involvement 1996: ESA Round Table on Space Weather. 1998: FMI report on space weather capabilities in Europe. 1998: First ESA Space Weather Workshop. 1999-2001: ESA feasibility study on a Space Weather Programme. 2000: Setting up of Space Weather Working Team. 2001: Submission of programme initiative to ESA management board =>Rejected (Quantification of value of service for sustainability and need more scientific basis). 2001: Start preparation of ESA-PP, COST724, and other… 2003: ESA SW pilot-project formally starts. 2003: COST 724 starts. 2005: COST 296 starts (follows from COST 271).

4. ESA SW Application – November 2005 Where we stand in Nov 2005 Overall European harmonisation/coordination: SWWT Organisation of the scientific community (through COST 296, COST724).Organisation of the scientific community (through COST 296, COST724). Coordinated service investigation/evaluation in Europe - SWENET (Starts: April 2003 – ends: Mars 2006). International relations: ISES, COSPAR PSW & PRBEM, ILWS, CAWSES, IHY.

5. ESA SW Application – November 2005 Coordinated Service Investigation Space Weather European Network (SWENET)Space Weather European Network (SWENET) : –Network of 29 service development activities (SDAs): 16 ESA co-funded SDA applications activities began on 1 st April 2003 + 13 independently funded activities. ommon support (portal, service provision, data access), evaluation method, modelling. – Common support (portal, service provision, data access), evaluation method, modelling. Independent benefit assessmentIndependent benefit assessment is establishing the economic and other benefits of the services (Contract with SEA). Investigation of future sustainable structure for service provision.

6. ESA SW Application – November 2005 SWENET as a sample for study Represents ~5 M€ investment incl. 2  € from ESA GSP. Co-funding (approx. 3 M€) made available to this project by users or developers from 9 member states or from other ESA programme.Co-funding (approx. 3 M€) made available to this project by users or developers from 9 member states or from other ESA programme. Questions to address: –users (and their requirements)? –currently realistic (sustainable) services? –Need for specific space elements? –Value of coordinated approach? –Overall organisation requirements?

7. ESA SW Application – November 2005 Organisation of the Review/Discussion Monday: –SWENET infrastructure (P. Beltrami, Eta-max) –Ionospheric effects session (reporter: L. Cander, RAL). –Effects on aircraft and spacecraft (reporter: A. Hilgers, ESA) –Ground effects (reporter: R. Pirjola, FMI & CNS). –Solar monitoring and magnetic indices (reporter: M. Messeroti, TSO). –Cost/benefit analysis study status (T. Woodward, SEA) All the week: Scientific sessions and Business meetings (COST, SWWT-TWG) Friday: Agency activities – Round table – SWWT meeting.

8. ESA SW Application – November 2005 Users and user domains (in EUROPE) Broad community of users (incl. military).Broad community of users (incl. military). Can be organised as follows:Can be organised as follows: 1.Ground geomagnetic effects 2.Ionospheric perturbations of radio signal (comms, nav). 3.Direct space environment effects on spacecraft. 4.SDA’s with general purpose services with broad class of users (usually solar/indices,…). + airline

9. ESA SW Application – November 2005 Sustainability of Services Preliminary analysis of SDA business Plan Currently real but small Market. –Cost/benefit analysis study status (T. Woodward, SEA) Significant growth might be expected in Nav and SC effects domain area (including manned mission). Government/Agency funding seems still required. Research activity is still required: –fundamental aspect –science of the observation (modelling, data assimilation, monitoring, prediction,…).

10. ESA SW Application – November 2005 Space Element as required by services (Preliminary). MeasurementUsersHitchhikerDedicated IonosphereCom, Nav METOPS/C-A LEO const Rad GEOS/CMTG Rad GTOS/CX-HHS/C–B GTO Rad LEOS/CMETOP Rad MEONavGalileo x 5 Solar WindAll + sci-S/C-C at L1 Solar disk & corona Sc-op + sci MTGS/C-D at LEO SS or GEO

11. ESA SW Application – November 2005 Need for coordination (Preliminary) Data from multiple sources often required.Data from multiple sources often required. Several SDA’s are generic (solar, indices,…).Several SDA’s are generic (solar, indices,…). International collaboration might be better performed through local coordination (ISES, SEC,…).International collaboration might be better performed through local coordination (ISES, SEC,…). Data access, services provision, some space elements, and some R&D (e.g., data assimilation, numerical modelling) can be mutualised.Data access, services provision, some space elements, and some R&D (e.g., data assimilation, numerical modelling) can be mutualised.

12. ESA SW Application – November 2005 Conclusion SWPP has shown evidence of interest from users (incl. industry).SWPP has shown evidence of interest from users (incl. industry). Market small now.Market small now in Europe and rely on US or ground based data. Significant market potential growth might be expected for Nav and S/C (incl. manned space flight).Significant market potential growth might be expected for Nav and S/C (incl. manned space flight). Various space elements options are possible with investment commensurate with market size. Refinement of market scenarios and cost benefit analysis is in progress (contract with SEA). Possible undertaking for space elements need to be discussed after ESA council in December (relevant to next council in 2007-2008). S/C effect coordination may be taken care of by a NoC (TEC proposal).S/C effect coordination may be taken care of by a NoC (TEC proposal). Ionospheric effect coordination is partly covered by COST 296.Ionospheric effect coordination is partly covered by COST 296. Fundamental science of space weather is covered by COST 724, ILWS, E- STAR (TBC) and a possible ERA-Net.Fundamental science of space weather is covered by COST 724, ILWS, E- STAR (TBC) and a possible ERA-Net. Maintenance of overall coordinating structures (SWWT & SWENET) is under discussion (Lefeuvre proposal to ESA).

13. ESA SW Application – November 2005 BACKUP SLIDES

14. ESA SW Application – November 2005 Discussion of space elements options Option 0: No change User satisfaction: through US dominated service (+ possibly hardware elements to support ESA missions on a case by case basis and with difficulties).User satisfaction: through US dominated service (+ possibly hardware elements to support ESA missions on a case by case basis and with difficulties). Cost: ~1-5 M /Y (for ESA) + 10-100 M /Y (for non- ESA).Cost: ~1-5 M € /Y (for ESA) + 10-100 M€ /Y (for non- ESA). Market and related R&D: non space related market durably disconnected from ESA; Slow development unless a new leadership and funding sources appear (COST724 ?).Market and related R&D: non space related market durably disconnected from ESA; Slow development unless a new leadership and funding sources appear (COST724 ?).

15. ESA SW Application – November 2005 Discussion of options Option 1: Hitchhikers on planned missions User satisfaction: partial near real-time service but poor coverage.User satisfaction: partial near real-time service but poor coverage. Cost: ~10 M /Y (for ESA).Cost: ~10 M€ /Y (for ESA). Market and related R&D: efficiently linked to ESA for S/C, Comm and Nav. via a programme or an inter- directorate activity; rapid improvement expected upstream and downstream.Market and related R&D: efficiently linked to ESA for S/C, Comm and Nav. via a programme or an inter- directorate activity; rapid improvement expected upstream and downstream.

16. ESA SW Application – November 2005 Discussion of options Option 2: Hitchhikers + dedicated spacecraft User satisfaction: near real-time service with global coverage and forecasting capabilities.User satisfaction: near real-time service with global coverage and forecasting capabilities. Cost: ~200 M (through ESA).Cost: ~200 M€/5 Y (through ESA). Market and related R&D: fully linked to ESA via a SW programme (e.g. like Meteosat or GMES).Market and related R&D: fully linked to ESA via a SW programme (e.g. like Meteosat or GMES).

17. ESA SW Application – November 2005 Discussion of options Option 3: Dedicated scientific programme User satisfaction: satisfies a scientific need (e.g. study of solar system change at > 10 years time scale).User satisfaction: satisfies a scientific need (e.g. study of solar system change at > 10 years time scale). Cost: Minimum ~200 M (for space element).Cost: Minimum ~200 M€/5 Y (for space element). Market and related R&D: N/A.Market and related R&D: N/A.

18. ESA SW Application – November 2005 A possible way forward for spacecraft engineering issues: Creation of a Network of Centres on Space Environment & Effects Networks of Centres are ways in which ESA and the members states’ Agencies coordinate work in a technical area at high level; It can potentially support greater coordination of space environment and effects activities in Europe, & lead to execution of an enduring, coordinated programme of –in-orbit technological experiments, –ground facilities, –analysis and modelling infrastructures,

19. ESA SW Application – November 2005 SEENoC scope of the domain: –energetic particle radiation and its effects on systems, payloads and humans; –natural and induced plasma environments and their interactions with spacecraft; and resulting effects on systems and payloads specific responsibilities and activities: –define and implement the framework for a reinforced co-ordination of present and future national and ESA resources; –coordinate: research and development ; establishment and operation of facilities for supporting project development and R&D; preparation and maintenance of engineering standards; –capture details of activities being performed in Europe and elsewhere, highlight areas of concern, and establish priority requirements for actions taking account of end-user needs; –establish and maintain a medium and long-term plan including activities related to: flight opportunities for environments and effects investigations; environments and effects models and computational tools; environmental effects (radiation, plasma, etc.) evaluation; –address budgetary issues in the context of resource optimization; –promote awareness of space environment effects issues; –define and develop the European role vis-à-vis other international entities; –coordinate a European programme of in-orbit technological experiments, ground facilities, and analysis and modelling infrastructures. –liaise with other technical groups, such as ESCC/CTB/RGW, ECSS, SPINE, SWWT, capturing end user needs and concerns. STATUS: UNDER DISCUSSION IN ESA MANAGEMENT PARTICIPATION IS SELF-FUNDED!