2. BRIEF HISTORY 1972 initiative of U.S. and Soviet Union Created research center as a “neutral bridge between east and west” Original Charter of 1972: 12 countries 1994 Ministerial Conference: renewed mandate as independent, scientific institution International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

3. The End of World Population Growth in the 21 st Century: New Challenges for Human Capital Formation and Sustainable Development A forthcoming IIASA Book W. Lutz, W. C. Sanderson and S. Scherbov (Eds.)

4. Main Points The new demography of the 21st century requires a new population paradigm: Population Balance This paradigm has two main features: 1. Focus on age structure and not just population size and growth. 2. Adding education as an essential dimesion.

5. Policy Relevance The new paradigm of Population Balance gives a unified framework for defining policies in the context of both rapid population growth and rapid ageing.

6. Recommendation The current one-dimesnional goal of population stabilisation is no longer appropriate in the demographically diverse world of the 21st century. It should be replaced by population balance which also takes age-structure and education into account.

7. New global challenges for health, quality of life and sustainable development in the context of the end of world population growth The end of world population growth Low fertility and negative demographic momentum in Europe The demography of human capital formation Literate Life Expectancy: a new quality of life and social development indicator Does population aging necessarily result in more people with disabilties? New global challenges

8. World Population from the year 1000 to 2100 (historical data from 1000 to 2000; deciles of IIASA’s probabilistic forecasts to 2100) 7 Source of historical data: UN 2001

9. Nine sample paths (out of 2,000 simulated paths) of world population size from 2000 to 2100 8

10. Declines of the resulting uncertainty distribution of world population size to 21000. 9

11. World Population from the year 1000 to 2100 (historical data from 1000 to 2000; deciles of IIASA’s probabilistic forecasts to 2100) 10 Source of historical data: UN 2001

12. Probability of End of Population Growth: Proportion peaking prior to the indicated year (out of 2,000 simulated population paths) 11

13. 1 st, 3 rd, 5 th (median), 7 th, and 9 th deciles of the forecasted distributions of world population size at 10-year intervals from 2000 to 2100. Note: Uncertainty measure is (9 th decile-1 st decile)/median. 12

14. Western Europe, uncertainty distribution of the proportion above age 80. 13 UN “high” UN “low” UN “high”

16. Percentage of population aged 65 and older in Europe by regional units (NUTS 3). Berlin: August 15, 2003 15

17. New global challenges for health, quality of life and sustainable development in the context of the end of world population growth The end of world population growth Low fertility and negative demographic momentum in Europe The demography of human capital formation Literate Life Expectancy: a new quality of life and social development indicator Does population aging necessarily result in more people with disabilties? New global challenges

18. Birth deficit due to the tempo effect An increase in the mean age of childbearing results in a lasting loss of births, unless the childbearing age decreases again

19. EU-15 Population Scenarios Source: Lutz, O’Neill, & Scherbov, Science, 2003. Instant Replacement Level Fertility All scenarios assume constant mortality and no net migration. Ultimate population decline indicates current age structure has negative momentum Year

20. EU-15 Population Scenarios Source: Lutz, O’Neill, & Scherbov, Science, 2003. Instant Replacement Level Fertility 20 Years of Fertility at 1.5, then Replacement All scenarios assume constant mortality and no net migration. Continued low fertility leads to growing negative momentum Year

21. EU-15 Population Scenarios Source: Lutz, O’Neill, & Scherbov, Science, 2003. Instant Replacement Level Fertility 20 Years of Fertility at 1.8, then Replacement 20 Years of Fertility at 1.5, then Replacement All scenarios assume constant mortality and no net migration. The tempo effect accounts for about 45% of the population decline due to continued low fertility. Year

22. Effects of Low Fertility on Aging in Europe Source: Lutz, O’Neill, & Scherbov, Science, 2003.

23. New global challenges for health, quality of life and sustainable development in the context of the end of world population growth The end of world population growth Low fertility and negative demographic momentum in Europe The demography of human capital formation Literate Life Expectancy: a new quality of life and social development indicator Does population aging necessarily result in more people with disabilties? New global challenges

24. Forecasting Human Capital: Adding Education to Age and Sex Formal education is typically acquired at young ages and then does not change over the life course (goes along cohort lines, multi-state population models). This is why the educational composition of the total population changes only very slowly. Educational efforts made today will only improve the average education of the work force many years later.

26. Projecting the population by level of education We need to know the current composition of the population by age, sex and education categories. We need to know how the birth rates differ for women with different levels of education. We need to know school enrollment at different levels and make alternative assumptions for the future. We need to make assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration by level of education.

27. Country Specific Scenario: TFR 1.5 in 2030, Education Constant

28. Education-specific TFR : India and China.

32. 1,200 800 400 0 200020152030 2000 2015 2030 20002015 2030 Estimated population aged 20-64 years (in millions) by levels of education, according to the “ICPD” scenario, 2000-30, in three economic mega-regions Western and Eastern Europe and North America China and Centrally Planned Asia South Asia No educationPrimarySecondaryTertiary

33. New global challenges for health, quality of life and sustainable development in the context of the end of world population growth The end of world population growth Low fertility and negative demographic momentum in Europe The demography of human capital formation Literate Life Expectancy: a new quality of life and social development indicator Does population aging necessarily result in more peple with disabilties? New global challenges

34. Table 1. Example of the calculation of the LLE of rural men in Egypt, 1986.

35. LLE at birth for selected countries in North Africa, 1970 – 2005, for males (M) and females (F)

36. LLE at birth for selected countries in sub- Saharan Africa, 1970 – 2005, for males (M) and females (F)

37. Literate life expectancy for selected countries by sex and urban and rural place of residence

38. Literate life expectancy at birth for 13 world regions, 2000-2030, according to the “constant” and “ICPD” scenarios

39. Projections of female literate life expectancy at birth for six regions 2000-2030, according to the “ICPD” scenario

40. New global challenges for health, quality of life and sustainable development in the context of the end of world population growth The end of world population growth Low fertility and negative demographic momentum in Europe The demography of human capital formation Literate Life Expectancy: a new quality of life and social development indicator Does population aging necessarily result in more people with disabilties? New global challenges

41. European Union 2000, Proportion with some disabilities by age

42. Age Pyramid of the EU-15 in 2000 by Disability Status (red shading indicates persons with some disabilities)

43. Projected age pyramid of the disabled population under the scenario with zero shift, i.e., constant age-specific profile (red shading indicates persons with disabilities).

44. Projected age pyramid of the disabled population under the scenario with a two-year shift per decade (red shading indicates persons with disabilities).

45. Results of the four alternative scenarios shifting the age profile of disability by 0, 1, 2 and 3 years per decades (in millions of disabled).

46. New global challenges for health, quality of life and sustainable development in the context of the end of world population growth The end of world population growth Low fertility and negative demographic momentum in Europe The demography of human capital formation Literate Life Expectancy: a new quality of life and social development indicator Does population aging necessarily result in more peple with disabilties? New global challenges

47. Aim: To prepare a comprehensive scientific assessment about the role of population in sustainable development strategies, with the aim of producing substantive input to the Johannesburg 2002 summit. Organization and Sponsorship: Organized by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP), and the United Nations University (UNU). Sponsored by the UNFPA, the Government of Austria, and the MacArthur Foundation. Patronage and Constitution: Maurice Strong and Nafis Sadik are the Panel’s joint patrons. It consists of 30 distinguished scientists from different relevant disciplines. Coordinators: Wolfgang Lutz and Mahendra Shah Global Science Panel Population in Sustainable Development IIASA 2002 / 46

48. 1)Demographically Diverse World 2)Population Matters to Development and Environment 3)Policy Must Account for Differential Vulnerability Within Populations 4)Empowerment Through Education and Reproductive Health Has Multiple Benefits for People and Environment 5)Strengthening Interdisciplinary Training Global Science Panel Population in Sustainable Development IIASA 2002 / 47

49. Global Science Panel Population in Sustainable Development IIASA 2002 / 48 3) Policy Must Account For Differential Vulnerability Within Populations Deteriorating environmental conditions and extreme events do not affect all countries, populations, or households in the same way. Even within a household, the effects may differ by age and gender. Consideration of vulnerability must therefore focus not only on countries but also on the most vulnerable segments of the population within countries. Vulnerability can be reduced by promoting empowerment, investing in human resources, and fostering participation in public affairs and decision- making.

50. Global Science Panel Population in Sustainable Development IIASA 2002 / 49 4) Empowerment Through Education and Reproductive Health Has Multiple Benefits for People and the Environment Two policies have multiple benefits for individual welfare, for social and economic development, and for the environment. One is investment in voluntary family planning and reproductive health programs. The other top policy priority is education. Education enhances individual choice, fosters women's empowerment and improves gender equity. More educated people are in better health and often contribute to greater environmental awareness. It may also reduce vulnerability to environmental changes by facilitating access to information and the means to protect oneself.

51. Global Science Panel Population in Sustainable Development IIASA 2002 / 50 5) Strengthening Interdisciplinary Training To facilitate the joint consideration of population trends, health, education, development, and environment, more interdisciplinary education at all levels is necessary. Training for the policy community, media, and scientists is especially important. ********************** Final note: A demography that goes beyond age and sex is well suited to facilitate such interdisciplinary approaches because it can capture the dynamics of groups of individuals with all the characteristics considered important (health status, education, location etc.) and link it to institutions.

52. Projecting the population by level of education We need to know the current composition of the population by age, sex and education categories. We need to know how the birth rates differ for women with different levels of education. We need to know school enrollment at different levels and make alternative assumptions for the future. We need to make assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration by level of education.

53. New Concept of Population Balance So far the problems associated with population growth and those associated with population ageing have been studied separately. Here we develop a common framework considering age structure. We complement these purely demographic factors by also considering the cost and the productivity enhancing effects of education.

54. Welfare Indictor for Stable Populations By Fraction Educated and Total Fertility Rate, Baseline Parameters

55. Conclusions Population Balance can be seen as the population component of sustainable development. It is directly relevant for the Millennium Development Goals because it relates to poverty, education, reproduction, the environment and intergenerational equity.