1. Space Weather Prediction Center Products and Services
Joe Kunches & Bill Murtagh
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SWPC
Boulder, CO
NOAA GPS/GNSS Workshop
Boulder
October 24, 2007

2. Overview SWPC Forecast Office and ISES Event products tied to NOAA
Space Weather Scales
SWPC Customers
Case Study: 18 August 2003
Severe (G4) Magnetic Storm
Customer economic impacts
Verification and Validation
critical
Vision for future products

3. Assess, Predict, Engage, Advise & Inform Space Weather Forecast Office
Joint USAF/NOAA Center, staffed 24/7
Provide alerts, warnings, watches, and scheduled products to non-DOD customers
Quality driven, verify forecasts
Aggressively strive for product improvement
Function as World Warning Agency for the International Space Environment Service

4. International Space Environment Service (ISES)

5. NOAA Space Weather Scales
Introduced in 1999
Similar to Hurricane and Tornado intensity scales (1 thru 5)
Three Categories
Radio Blackouts, R-scale
(Caused by Solar Flares)
Solar Radiation Storms, S-scale
(Caused by Particle Events)
Geomagnetic Storms, G-scale
(Caused by CMEs)
Equivalent Physical Measures
Radio Blackouts, R-scale:
Solar X-ray Flux on GOES
Solar Radiation Storms, S-scale:
Energetic Proton Flux on GOES
Geomagnetic Storms, G-scale:
Ground-based Magnetometer deviations

6. Growth of Space Weather Customers
Commercial Space
Transportation
Airline Polar Flights
Microchip technology
Precision Guided Munitions
Cell phones
Atomic Clock
Satellite Operations
Carbon Dating experiments
GPS Navigation
Ozone Measurements
Aircraft Radiation Hazard
Commercial TV Relays
Communications Satellite Orientation
Spacecraft Charging
Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote
Sensing Instrument Damage
Geophysical Exploration.
Pipeline Operations
Anti-Submarine Detection
Satellite Power Arrays
Power Distribution
Long-Range Telephone Systems
Radiation Hazards to Astronauts
Interplanetary Satellite experiments
VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN)
Over the Horizon Radar
Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites
Research & Operations Requirements
Satellite Orbit Prediction
Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments
Ionospheric Rocket experiments
Short-wave Radio Propagation
A few of the agencies and industries that rely on NOAA space weather services today:
U.S. power grid infrastructure
Commercial airline industry
Dept. of Transportation ( GPS)
NASA human space flight activities
Satellite launch and operations
DoD Operations
Growth of Space Weather
Customers
NOAA Space
Environment
Center
DOE
Nuclear Reg Comm
Schlumberger
NY/PJM Grid
Ball
Loral
NESDIS/SOCC
Digital Globe
Boeing
Lockheed
Aerospace
Echostar
NASA
Space Command
ISS Astronauts
FAA
American
United Airlines
Northwest
Continental
Sunspot Cycles

7. Who Really Cares? NASA Manned Space Flight GPS Survey Operations
May alter EVA’s during adverse space weather
GPS Survey Operations
Can’t work during storms
Commercial Airlines
Dispatchers change routes to accommodate conditions
Missile Launch Operations
Atlas launches include space weather information
Electric Utilities
Configure grid in a more robust/less profitable state
Emerging Applications
E911 Emergency Services
Traffic Management

8. NOAA’s Space Weather Services ~ Economic and Societal Impacts ~
Impact Area
Customer (examples)
Action (examples)
Cost (examples)
Spacecraft
(Individual systems to complete spacecraft failure; comm and radiation effects)
Lockheed Martin, Orbital, Aerospace Corp, Boeing, Digital Globe, Sciences Corp, Space Systems Loral, NASA, NOAA, DoD
- Postpone launch
- In orbit - Reboot systems; Turn off/safe instruments and/or spacecraft
Loss of spacecraft can exceed
$500M
Commercial loss exceeds $1B
Worst case storm - $100B
Electric Power
(Equipment damage to electrical grid failure and blackout conditions)
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory, Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Allegheny Power, Central Maine, American Transmission Company
Many mitigating actions:
adjust/reduce system load disconnect components, postpone maintenance
Estimated loss ~$400M from unexpected geomagnetic storms
- $3-6B loss in GDP (blackout)
Airlines (Communications)
(Loss of flight HF radio communications)
United, Continental, Northwest, American, Lufthansa, Qantas Virgin, British Airways, Fedex, Air New Zealand, ExecuJet, etc.
Divert polar flights, change flight plans
Change altitude
Cost ~ $100k per diverted flight
$10-50k for re-routes
Airlines (Radiation)
(Radiation dose on crew and passengers)
United, Continental, Northwest, American, Lufthansa, Qantas, Virgin, British Airways, Fedex, Air New Zealand, ExecuJet etc.
Change altitude (even at mid-latitudes)
Cost ~$100k per diverted flight
- Health risks
Surveying & Navigation
(Use of magnetic field or GPS could be impacted)
FAA-WAAS, New York and Texas Dept. of Transportation, BP Alaska, Schlumberger, GlobalSantaFe, etc.
Postpone activities; Redo survey; Use alternate or backup navigation tools
BP Alaska cost $10,000 per day, other surveys have similar costs
Vendor Industry
(Servicing the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC), and National Grid)
Northwest Research Assoc., INC
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
Metatech Corp.
Data used in real time to alert electric power companies of significant geomagnetic storms

9. Forecasts of Ionospheric Conditions the Target
With the right mix of real time data
Near the Sun
Interplanetary
Ionospheric
Plus good models
USTEC
“Son of USTEC”
Good predictions can be made
August 2003 severe magnetic storm prediction is an illustration

10. Geomagnetic Alerts and Warnings issued Communications/Nav/GPS
18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm
Geomagnetic Alerts and Warnings issued
to over 500 customers -
Space Operations
NASA/SRAG
European Space Agency
Canadian Space Agency
Lockheed Martin Missiles and Space
Space Systems/Loral
Hughes Space & Comm
Boeing Space Station
more…
Government
NASA
FAA
US Nuclear Reg Commission
NOAA/NESDIS/SOCC
U.S. Department of Energy
ITS
NIST
more…
Transportation
Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd
United Airlines
Oakland Oceanic Air Traffic Control Ctr
AMTRAK
FAA/ATC
more…
Communications/Nav/GPS
SES-Americom
Johnson, Frank & Associates, Inc.
AT&T Sat Comm Ops
AT&T Network Operations Ctr
COMSAT General Corp
GE Americom
ARINC
INTELSAT
more…
Electric Power
Electric Research & Management
New York Independent System Operator
Deer Lake Power
Bonneville Power Administration
American Transmission Company
Virginia Electric Power Company
more…

11. Solar eruption occurred
18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm – ACE EPAM
Solar eruption occurred
on 14 Aug
Large mass ejection
impacts ACE on 17 Aug
ACE Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM)
The enhancements in the low energy protons alerted forecasters to the strong
possibility of an Earthbound coronal mass ejection, over 24 hours in advance!
The magnitude of the enhancement suggested a strong magnetic storm was possible.

12. Measurements at L1 provide 30-45 minutes leadtime before
18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm – ACE SWEPAM
The mass ejection impacts ACE on 17 Aug/1340Z – almost 66 hours after the eruption on the sun.
Measurements at L1 provide minutes leadtime before
the mass ejection impacts the Earth’s magnetic field, but interplanetary magnetic field information will determine which warnings should be issued.

13. 18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm – ACE Mag
Strong magnetic field measurements at ACE alert forecasters to potentially severe geomagnetic storming.
The Magnetic Field Instrument (MAG)
Forecasters wait for “rotation”, then issue K6 warning at 18/0439Z to over 400 customers.
K6 occurs at 18/0641Z – 2:02 Hours Leadtime!

14. Space Weather Effects

15. Annual Number of Space Weather Products Issued During Solar Cycle 23
Introduction of the NASA ACE solar wind monitor and the GOES SXI imager resulted in a significant increase in the number of NOAA’s routine space weather products.
The highest number of event-driven products issued during any year in Solar Cycle 23 was 1,695 which occurred 3-4 years into the declining phase of the cycle
The number of products above does not include the NOAA POES and GOES, or NASA ACE real time solar wind data sets, which account for over 14 million file transfers per month
Over 400 event-driven products were issued during each of the solar “minimum” years (1996 & 1997)

16. Service Begins
Lockheed Martin Management
NOAA space weather alerts and warnings are distributed by lead organizations to sister agencies and subordinate groups…
The new product subscription system was enabled in early 2005, and required customers to register for NOAA/SEC alerts, warnings, and other information. This system allows users to manage their own accounts in a more comprehensive way using a Web interface and helps SEC to know our customers better so that distribution of products is easier for them and us. This process also introduced a major product expansion: notifying those who want the latest on data outages, changes, or satellite problems related to their interests. This plot shows subscription service customers only; other NOAA space weather data types and data access options are used by many thousands of customers.
Similar to the NASA process, many other NOAA space weather customers distribute NOAA alerts and warnings to sister agencies and subordinate groups. Examples include ARINC, who use NOAA/SEC products to develop and transmit an “ARINC Solar Activity Advisory Message” to its many airline customers. Major airline carriers such as United Airlines, Continental, and FedEx have similar processes in place. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Committee (NRC) also distributes NOAA space weather alerts and warnings to Nuclear power plants around the country.
NASDA (Japan) Mission Control
CSA (Canada) Mission Control
NASA Mission Control
NASA Management
Flight Control
Biomedical Engineers
Surgeon
ESA (Europe) Mission Control
NASA
Space Radiation
Analysis Group
RSA (Russia) Mission Control
NOAA/SEC
Radiation
Alert/Warning
Russian Inst. Biomedical Problems

17. Extensive Usage of Real Time Solar Wind Data ACE RTSW customers are
46 ACE RTSW Data Displays on the SEC Public Web Site:
35 updating plots
8 real-time lists
3 special displays for S/C location, tracking, and current conditions "dials"
Extensive Usage of Real Time Solar Wind Data
A million ACE solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers
SEC's public internet serves 4.8 million ACE RTSW data display files every month
ACE RTSW customers are
from 62 domains, the top users:
Japan U.S. Government
.com (commercial) United Kingdom
Education .net (commercial)
Germany Russia
Australia Belgium

18. Total (Estimated) Number of Space Weather Models Driven or Validated by ACE Solar Wind Data
The National Space Weather Program was founded with the explicit goal of applying the newly developed knowledge of the space environment to help reduce the growing impact of space weather on societies’ advanced technologies. NASA, NSF, and DOD have expended tens of millions of dollars to develop models of the local and regional reaction of the space environment to forcing inputs from the Sun; many of these models are now mature and ready for transition to operations. However, at an estimated average cost greater than $1,000,000 per model, NOAA’s Space Environment Center (SEC) has been unable to fund transitions of these critical models. Lack of resources constrains NOAA’s ability to deliver what customers want; the capability exists in the Space Weather Program, but not the capacity. SEC unable to meet customer demands for regional specification and forecasts of space weather.
The plot above does not include many of the research efforts underway that rely on solar wind data.
SEC is unable to fund transition of critical models into operations
Without additional resources, the gap above will continue to grow
Customer demands for regional specification/forecasts - unmet
ACE data directly drives five of the eleven SEC space weather watches and warnings, and influences the remaining six

19. Average Monthly NOAA/SEC Internet Traffic and Customer Summary
Web Site: More than 30 million files transferred each month.
~500,000 files created monthly with near-real-time data for 176 products
more than 250,000 unique customers per month
customers from 150 countries
NOAA/SEC has end-to-end system responsibility for universally used space environment data acquired by the GOES and POES environmental satellites. SEC also supplies real time solar wind data from the NASA ACE satellite.
A million solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers
Eight million GOES file transfers per month (web only)
– 140,000 unique users monthly
Five million POES file transfers per month (web only)
– 185,000 unique users monthly
– % of all NOAA/SEC customers use POES data
All the above numbers reflect monthly usage near solar minimum!

20. NOAA/SEC Real Time Data
- an absolute requirement to support worldwide DoD operations
>80% of ALL DoD space wx alerts/warnings rely on NOAA data
NOAA/SEC Data
(Primarily Satellite)
STRATCOM
Space Command
USAF
Air Force
Weather Agency
Army and Navy
Operations
Missile
Defense Agency
U.S. Northern Command
and NORAD
National Reconnaissance
Office
Joint Space
Ops Center
The NOAA/SEC Forecast Center is jointly operated by NOAA and the U.S. Air Force. Two Air Force personnel are assigned at the SEC and act as operational liaisons and focal points for information and technology transition between the USAF and NOAA.
- Critical loss of radar target tracking or creates false targets
- Launch trajectory errors & payload deployment problems
- Direct radiation hazard to high altitude aircrews
- HF radio blackouts – comm impact to sensitive operations
- SATCOM interference/downlink problems
- Impede SAR (search & rescue) operations
National
Security
Impacts

21. Some Economic Estimates
The direct global economic impact of SW has been estimated at about $200 M per year
Rationale and Requirements for A Space Weather Programme
(Richard B. Horne, 2001), 3.
US Department of Defense spends $500M per year to mitigate space weather effects
Storms from the Sun (Carlowicz and Lopez, 2002), 128.
Between 6/00 and 12/01 space weather added $650 million of costs to the wholesale price of electricity in one power pool in the U.S. ($433 million/yr)
Space Weather and the Electricity Market (Forbes & St. Cyr, 2002)
Williamson et al,
Space Policy Institute
The George Washington University

22. Navigation Systems and GPS
Ionospheric disturbances result in system failure, loss of phase lock, and position errors
A 1% gain in continuity and availability of GPS would be worth $180M per year
Benefits of a European Space Weather Programme (DERA, 2000), 21.
Williamson et al,
Space Policy Institute
The George Washington University

23. Electric Power: Geomagnetically Induced Currents
GIC in transmission lines cause:
Power surges, network supply interruptions, transformer damage, and reduced lifetime of components – and any single failure can develop into cascading damages and outages
A geomagnetic storm in 1989 caused $13.2M in damage to power systems operators in Quebec, and another $27M to power operators in NJ; additional social and direct economic costs to customers
Natural Resources, Government of Canada
Williamson et al,
Space Policy Institute
The George Washington University

24. Electric Power
Oak Ridge National Laboratory estimates that a GIC- induced black out in the NE could result in $3-6B loss in GDP
Earth in Space, Vol. 9 No
Space weather in deregulated grid can cause the cost of electricity to jump from $15 to $68 per MW on spot market
Forbes & St. Cyr, 2002
Cost of shielding power lines from GIC is prohibitive, some preventive measures can be taken with prediction notice
Storms from the Sun, 104.
After 1989, Hydro-Quebec spent $1.2B on capacitors to prevent flow of GIC direct current
New Scientist “Fire in the Sky” 1999
Williamson et al,
Space Policy Institute
The George Washington University

25. Satellites & Spacecraft
Space weather is a serious consideration for spacecraft designers, satellite operators, and space insurance companies
Estimated annual benefit of avoiding space weather losses: $11M
Benefits of a European Space Weather Programme, 20.
In 1989, a space weather storm caused such significant orbital decay that Air Force Space Command lost track of 1,300 of the 8,000 objects under observation to orbital decay
Of possible concern to human spaceflight crews
SW loss of a satellite could be confused with a hostile act by an adversary or potential adversary
Williamson et al,
Space Policy Institute
The George Washington University

26. Satellites
In March 1989, 7 geostationary satellites made 177 orbital adjustments in 2 days, more than normally made in a year, reducing the satellites’ useful life
Storms from the Sun, 98.
Spacecraft insurance companies paid out $500M between for on-orbit failures (some from space weather effects)
Space Environment Center Topic Paper: Satellites and Space Weather
In , space insurance payouts = twice premiums
Benefits of a European Space Weather Programme, 27.
Improved space weather prediction could provide insurers with better risk assessment capabilities
Williamson et al,
Space Policy Institute
The George Washington University

27. Satellites
In 1997, destruction of AT&T’s Telestar satellite disrupted TV networks and part of the US earthquake monitoring network, and forced renegotiation of the sale of Telestar, resulting in a drop of $234M in value
Storms from the Sun, 132.
Disruptions to government satellites cost about $100M per year, with potential to be reduced by 50% through improved anomaly diagnostics
Benefits of a European Space Weather Programme, 21.
Space Launch
Space weather exacts extra costs for space launch when it causes launches to be delayed
With 2 days warning of solar proton events, Arianespace could save up to $2.5M per year
(Benefits of Space Weather Programme)
Williamson et al,
Space Policy Institute
The George Washington University

28. NOAA Space Environment Center Space Weather Operations
Creating Valuable Space Weather Products: Transition and Verification at SEC Space Weather Operations
Kent A. Doggett
NOAA Space Environment Center
Space Weather Operations
Boulder, Colorado, USA
Space Weather Week
May 19–22, 2003

29. Future Products Forecasts, Forecasts, Forecasts!!!
IF GOES, STEREO, and SDO give better solar observations
AND ACE, STEREO, KwaFu give the solar wind propagating earthward
PLUS CORS, COSMIC give ionospheric conditions globally
THEN USTEC and newer renditions give predictions for Positioning /Navigation/Timing (PNT) users
External User Base continues to grow
Electronic navigation (GPS III, Galileo, Glonass, Compass, etc., plus backup system eLoran)
Commercial providers, per recent interaction with AGI
NextGen, E911/E112, ADS-B implementations all rely on GPS/GNSS to be the best it can be
Internal to NOAA, User Base also expanding
Airborne, marine, ground surveying all need optimal GPS/GNSS