2. Phase Two Results  Phase 1 conclusions disseminated, discussed, and confirmed  Both WB and country strategies and plans based on more thorough assessment of exposure, impacts, capacity, and vulnerabilities  Hydromets, MOA, Academy of Sciences, and other official stakeholders gained improved understanding of benefits of participation and coordination  How to implement strategies: incorporate into strategy and project creation process

3. Mainstreaming CAS/CPS/PRSP  Impact already noted: “exogenous shock” in Armenia, Georgia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan  Not always considered, even for some highly exposed countries  Disaster mitigation included into matrix as environmental measure: mandate for drought management and mitigation projects under this framework, but little specific linkage

4. Poverty Studies  Many drought-prone areas are also among the most highly impoverished  If drought and other disasters can be considered as a factor, easier to target measures  Methodological challenge: expand or incorporate into attempts at integrating cross-cutting issues into poverty studies, e.g. water in Armenia

5. Projects  Related areas: water (irrigation, hydropower, municipal, fisheries), agriculture, rural and community development, environment, disaster management, transportation and other infrastructure  More coherent and specific framework (CAS/CSP/PRSP) may help to maximize benefits for drought (and flood) management and mitigation in projects; consider specific conditions of drought-prone areas and populations at risk  Specific linkage within projects, e.g. targeting drought prone areas with appropriate mitigation interventions, community participation in disaster management  ERR: limitations of impact assessment data and risk analysis in countries

6. Harmonization  Cross-cutting frameworks: UNFCCC, UNCCD, CIDA Climate Change, CACILM, UNDP Disaster Management, WFP  Sector projects: SDC IWRM, USAID South Caucasus WRM, ICARDA  Meteorological and hydrological projects: WMO, NOAA  Limitations: sequencing, incongruent funding mechanisms and procedures, centralization of donors/IFIs, domestic governance (budget disclosure)  Importance of country leadership  Focus on future: new aid vehicles and instruments, e.g. pooled funding, multi-donor trust funds, shared analytic work, training material, etc.

7. Central Asia - Profile  Lowland areas have constant moisture deficit  Water resources: variability of rivers; management of reservoirs and dams  Observation and early warning for water by Uzglavgidromet; distant posts out of commission  Climate change and Aral Sea  Water allocation for Aral Sea basin by ICWC

8. Kazakhstan - Profile  Moderate or severe drought annually in one or more areas  Observation network being rebuilt, but early warning does not reach most end users  Downstream water user in Aral Sea basin  Local level water management institutions are weak  Rainfed cropland in north: drought-induced losses 11 of last 20 years; some mitigation measures implemented  Rangeland: mobility and grazing patterns  Disaster management plan does not adequately consider drought

9. Kazakhstan - Strategies  Draft National Drought Plan:  Strengthen observation, forecasting, early warning (including NDVI for wheat and rangeland);  Long-term prognosis and climate change  Mainstreaming, e.g. tenure arrangements and mobility in rangeland management, demand-side measures and local institutions in water sector  Coordinated response and recovery

10. Kyrgyz Republic - Profile  Drought in Talas valley, Issiq Qol, Inner Tien Shan; floods follow droughts  Observation and early warning network is outdated or decrepit  Significant water resources  Reservoir management: 80% of electricity from hydropower  IWRM is nascent  Pasture degradation, owing to less atlitudinal migration

11. Kyrgyz Republic - Strategy  Repair observation, especially snowpack and glaciers  Create appropriate early warning networks  Continue with IWRM  Rangeland and herds: rotational grazing; mobility  Community watershed management  Include drought into disaster management frameworks

12. Tajikistan - Profile  Drought conditions every year in summer: valleys and foothills in north; deserts in southwest and in mountains  Enormous water resources  Many observation posts and stations inoperable, especially in remote areas: lack of data, unreliable forecasts  Agricultural drought in 2001: $50 million, external deficit and funding gap worsened  Reservoir management  Subsistence farming more widespread; informal production quotas constrain diversification  Rural poverty is widespread, especially in drought- prone areas of Khatlon and Sugh Provinces

13. Tajikistan - Strategy  Determine funding gap in disaster management  Improve observation, especially glaciers and snowpack  Early warning institutions, e.g. WUAs  Eliminate production quotas and other informal controls  Community watershed management  Continue to emphasize long-term mitigation in recovery operations

14. Turkmenistan - Profile  Meteorological drought is a permanent condition  Information control: early warning; appeals for aid in international community  Hydrological drought depends upon upstream and in-country water management (irrigation from Kara Kum)  Rangeland sensitive to drought, but monitoring inadequate  Contingency planning for water shortage is outdated  Waterlogging and land salinization are widespread  Production plans constrain diversification  Household water supply  Desertification and desiccation of the Aral Sea

15. Turkmenistan - Strategy  Expand observation and early warning into Kara Kum  Resolve transboundary issues  Improve Water Code, build support for IWRM, and create Water Shortage Response Plan  Improve efficiency of irrigation  Water harvesting, e.g. takyrs  Liberalize agricultural policy  Improve household water supply

16. Uzbekistan - Profile  In lowlands, severe drought every decade  Strong capacity in observation and forecasting  Use of 60% of water in Aral Basin, mostly from upstream to irrigate 3.5 million ha  State control of economy, especially agriculture, although reforms are proceeding rapidly  Little community participation in early warning and disaster management  Rural poverty, demographic surge, and off-farm employment  Most drought-prone area (Karakalpakistan) is located in ecological disaster zone  Disaster management capacity improved, but drought not included into the framework

17. Uzbekistan - Strategy  Liberalize markets (especially cotton and wheat) and relax trade barriers  Create suitable early warning for agricultural drought  Resolve transboundary water issues  Build support for IWRM, create Water Shortage Response Plan, resolve WUA development issues  Improve land management throgh better monitoring and establishment of sound tenure arrangements  Involve communities in disaster management  Improve coordination through establishment of a Working Group for drought planning, mitigation, and response

18. Central Asia - Strategy  Trade liberalization  Conduct regional studies under UNFCCC and UNCCD  Proposed Regional Center: for monitoring and prognosis or scientific research?  CACILM: partial implementation through ICARDA and IWMI  ICWC: regional Water Shortage Response Plan (possibly as part of SDC IWRM project); information sharing  Mainstream into efforts to ameliorate desiccation of the Aral Sea and Regional Environmental Action Plan