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Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from WardsAuto North American Barometer and 6-Month Outlook Q4 2014/Q1 2015.

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Presentation on theme: "Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from WardsAuto North American Barometer and 6-Month Outlook Q4 2014/Q1 2015."— Presentation transcript:

1 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from WardsAuto North American Barometer and 6-Month Outlook Q4 2014/Q1 2015

2 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from WardsAuto 6-Month North American Outlook – Q4 2014/Q1 2015 Industry Forecasts Sales- N.America ( Yr/Yr % Change) Production- N.America ( Yr/Yr % Change) Inventory - U.S. (Yr/Yr % Change)

3 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from North American Industry By the Numbers Production Available Production Straight-Time Utilization YTD Sales (Jan.-Aug.)Trailing 12-Mo. Sales Millions U.S. Sales vs. Inventory Y/Y Percent Change by Segment Group (Aug. 2014)

4 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from WardsAuto North American Outlook Q4 2014-Q1 2015 Product and Plant Actions CompanyBrandSeriesActionMfr.Assembly SourceSegmentProduction StartSales Start BMWMiniCooperRedesignBMWGermanyCUV SmallImportOct. BMW X6RedesignBMWSpartanburgCUV Luxury MiddleJulyOct. DaimlerSmartFortwoRedesignDaimlerFranceSmall SpecialtyImportJan. 2015 Fiat-ChryslerDodgeChallengerRedesignFiat-ChryslerBramptonMiddle specialtyJulyOct. Fiat-ChryslerJeepRenegadeNew vehicleFiat-ChryslerItalyCUV SmallImportDec. Fiat-ChryslerRamProMaster CityNew vehicleFiat-ChryslerTurkeyVan SmallImportJan. 2015 Ford F-150RedesignFordDearbornPickup LargeOct.Dec. Ford MustangRedesignFordFlat RockMiddle specialtyJulyOct. Ford EdgeRedesignFordOakvilleCUV MiddleJan. 2015Apr. 2015 Ford F-150RedesignFordKansas City 2Pickup LargeJan. 2015Mar 2015 GMGMCCanyonNew vehicleGMWentzvillePickup SmallAug.Oct. GMChevroletCity ExpressNew vehicleGMCuernavacaVan SmallJulyOct. GMChevroletColoradoNew vehicleGMWentzvillePickup SmallAug.Oct. Honda HR-VNew vehicleHondaCelayaCUV SmallOct.Nov. Hyundai/KiaKiaSorentoRedesignHyundai/KiaWest PointCUV MiddleNov.Jan. 2015 Mazda Mazda2RedesignMazdaSalamancaSmall LowerSept.Oct. Mazda MX-5 MiataRedesignMazdaJapanSmall SpecialtyImportJan. 2015 Nissan MuranoRedesignNissanCantonCUV MiddleSept.Oct. NissanInfinitiQX70RedesignNissanJapanCUV Middle LuxuryImportOct. ToyotaLexusLSRedesignToyotaJapanLuxury UpperImportOct. ToyotaLexusRCNew vehicleToyotaJapanLuxury SpecialtyImportOct. ToyotaLexusNXNew vehicleToyotaJapanCUV Luxury MiddleImportDec. VolkswagenAudiQ3New vehicleVolkswagenGermanyCUV Luxury SmallImportOct.

5 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from U.S. Sales – Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) (Light vehicles in millions)

6 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from Economics positive: GDP expected to continue fairly strong (~3%) through end of year Enough inventory Competitive Interest rates still low Off-lease Fuel prices down U.S. Sales – Q4 2014-Q1 2015

7 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from U.S. Sales: Q4/Q1 Game-Changer Watch List Economy creating more demand than projected Robust incentives in midsize car, large-pickup segments Another winter like last year Geo-political issues hurt economy

8 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from Manufacturer Pulse: Q4 2014 GM Ford Fiat-Chrysler Toyota Honda Nissan Hyundai/Kia Volkswagen/Audi Other  BMW  Mercedes  Subaru

9 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from General Motors By-The-Numbers: Solid ProductionAvailable Production Straight-Time Capacity Utilization YTD Sales (Jan.-Aug.) Trailing 12-Mo. SalesU.S. Sales vs. Inventory Millions Y/Y Percent Change by Segment Group (Aug. 2014)

10 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from General Motors: Why ? (?) Management still in major transition though less a concern (?) Recall: still not affecting sales, but continue to have negative impact on earnings (?) Globally, mixed bag. Had Q2 earnings difficulties in South America and Europe; made wage concessions in South Korea. China is good (-) Cadillac, though not the bread-and-butter division like Chevrolet, is important – not riding the luxury wave (+/-) Fundamentals still good. Overall decent product portfolio; should have sales gains in U.S. Q4-14, Q1-15

11 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from Ford Motor By-the-Numbers: Continue Share Decline ProductionAvailable Production Straight-Time Utilization YTD Sales (Jan.-Aug.)Trailing 12-Mo. Sales U.S. Sales vs. Inventory Millions Y/Y Percent Change by Segment Group (Aug. 2014)

12 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from Ford Motor: Why ? (+) Was yellow last time (+) Negatives short-term (this year and 2015) (+) Making money in Asia; capacity expansion in China a major positive as long as the industry there keeps growing (+) Management transition appears smooth (+/-) Large part of U.S. sales, share loss is from trying to maintain some pricing power, but weakness will continue well into 2015 (-) Financial hit when lose 90,000 units of F-150 production, but spread from Sept. through Mar 2015.

13 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from Fiat-Chrysler By-The-Numbers: Growth Slows ProductionAvailable Production Straight-Time Utilization YTD Sales (Jan.-Aug.)Trailing 12-Mo. Sales U.S. Sales vs. Inventory Y/Y Percent Change by Segment Group (Aug. 2014) Millions

14 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from Fiat-Chrysler: Why ? (+) Overall sales, share, production still strong (though y/y volumes start to flatten) (+) Gradually solidifying North American product portfolio (+) Appear committed to Windsor investment, indicating don’t expect contentious negotiations next year with Canada union (?) But a lot of older product still behind sales gains; conceded in Q2 earnings report that U.S. incentives hurt margins (?) Lengthy early tooling shutdowns at plants in Canada, Mexico in Q1 and Q2 2015 a temporary drag (-) Corporate’s heavy dependence on North America

15 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from Toyota By-The-Numbers: Turning Positive Production Available Production Straight-Time Utilization YTD Sales (Jan.-Aug.)Trailing 12-Mo. Sales U.S. Sales vs. Inventory Y/Y Percent Change by Segment Group (Aug. 2014)

16 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from Toyota: Why ? (+) Sales, share still going up (+) Refreshed Camry should reassert its mid-car dominance; new Lexus NX small luxury CUV (?) Seeing some global weakness (-) Scion flagging

17 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from Honda By-The-Numbers: Continue Weakness Production Available Production Straight-Time Utilization YTD Sales (Jan.-Aug.)Trailing 12-Mo. Sales U.S. Sales vs. Inventory Y/Y Percent Change by Segment Group (Aug. 2014) Millions

18 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from Honda: Why ? (-) Declining sales and dull product portfolio (-) U.S. inventory down from year-ago; good that manufacturer is undertaking inventory control, but possibly indicative it does not expect sales to rebound rest of the year. (-) Acura trending down again after temporary success from two redesigned CUVs (MDX, RDX) (+) New Fit and Fit-based HR-V crossover built at new plant in Mexico (?) Behind expectations in China, though expect overall demand in Asia (especially Japan) to improve

19 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from Nissan By-The-Numbers: Mostly Positive Production Available Production YTD Sales (Jan.-Aug.)Trailing 12-Mo. Sales Y/Y Percent Change by Segment Group (Aug. 2014) U.S. Sales vs. Inventory Millions

20 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from Nissan: Why ? (+) Sales, production still running on nearly all cylinders (+) Added capacity leading to more sales (?) Not impressed with overall portfolio, including powertrain – does not seem to match market success (+/-) Pulling back on incentives for Altima – sign of a bigger trend?

21 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from Hyundai/Kia By-The-Numbers: Improving ProductionAvailable Production Straight-Time Utilization U.S. Sales vs. Inventory Trailing 12-Mo. SalesYTD Sales (Jan.-Aug.) Y/Y Percent Change by Segment Group (Aug. 2014) Millions

22 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from Hyundai/Kia: Why ? (-) Major labor issues in home-base South Korea – stills source a lot of product globally from there, including to North America (-) Rising won also hurting profits (-) Higher discounts in U.S. hurt Q2 profits (+)Kia sales up; new Sedona and Sorento on the way

23 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from Volkswagen/Audi By-The-Numbers: Split ProductionAvailable Production Straight-Time Utilization YTD Sales (Jan.-Aug.)Trailing 12-Mo. Sales U.S. Sales vs. Inventory Y/Y Percent Change by Segment Group (Aug. 2014) Millions

24 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from Volkswagen ( )/Audi( ): Why ? (-) Sales down for all VW brand vehicles (?) Union issue in Chattanooga over? (+) Much needed midsize CUV confirmed for Chattanooga (+) Still Audi, Audi, Audi – all new Small Luxury CUV Q3 on sale October; freshened A8 for ‘15 model year (+) Globally, VW doing well – on pace to outdo Toyota for world sales crown

25 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from Rest of the Industry: Why ? (+)BMW, Mercedes, Land Rover Jaguar riding high on luxury wave (+) More new product coming from BMW (X6), Mercedes (C-Class, GLA) (+) Subaru share, sales heading for records with new Legacy and Outback (+) Mazda sales up; new Mazda2 in Q4, Miata in Q1 2015

26 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from Long-Term Outlook SALESPRODUCTION 2014 Full-Year Forecast N. America: 19.3 million (+3.7%) U.S. 16.3 million (+5.2%) Canada: 1.8 million (+4.6%) Mexico: 1.1 million (+3.9%) 2014 Full-Year Forecast N. America: 16.9 million (+5.1%) U.S. 11.5 million (+5.9%) Canada: 2.3 million (-2.6%) Mexico: 3.2 million (+8.6%)

27 Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from CONTACT US TODAY: LISA WILLIAMSON lwilliamson@wardsauto.com 248-799-2642 AMBER MCLINCHA amclincha@wardsauto.com 248-799-2622


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