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2011 Construction Outlook Breakfast
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Victorian Economic Update - Melbourne Construction Outlook Breakfast Kim Wells MP, Treasurer of Victoria 27July 2011
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Strong population growth… Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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Victoria remains the national leader in terms of building approvals Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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Also reflected in dwelling commencements Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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Victoria’s strong home-building performance expected to continue Source: HIA Economics, October 2011
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House prices continue to be flat in recent quarters Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Real Estate Institute of Victoria and RP-Data-Rismark All figures in per cent terms ABSREIVRP-RISMARK June 20102.98.50.4 September 2010-1.80.91.0 December 20101.5 (revised)6.90.8 March 2011-1.6 (revised)-6.0-1.8 June 2011-0.15.4-1.8
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Recent volatility in the AUD has led it to fall slightly below parity Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, as at 30 September 2011
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Victoria now has a much more robust and diversified economy and remains resilient Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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While the residential sector is flat, the non-residential sector is improving modestly *Year-on-year growth (3 month rolling sum)Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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Victorian economic projections All units in per cent 2009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-15 ActualForecast Real GSP2.02.503.002.75 Employment2.83.5*1.75 Unemployment rate5.55.1*5.00 4.75 Consumer price index2.13.3*2.752.50 Wage price index**2.83.8*3.753.50 Population1.81.701.50 2011-12 Budget projections Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Department of Treasury and Finance *Labour market, consumer price index and wage price index data are actual outcomes for 2010-11 **Covers private and public sector wage rates. Incorporates nominal wage increases for labour of unchanged quality, plus some productivity improvements which cannot be fully measured
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Housing Initiatives
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Housing initiatives Government action addressing housing affordability: Land transfer duty for first home buyers was cut by 20 per cent on 1 July 2011 First Home Bonus and Regional Bonus extended until 30 June 2012 The pensioner and concession card holder stamp duty concession threshold was increased from $440,000 to $750,000, and eligibility extended to holders of a Commonwealth Seniors Health Card Stamp duty exemption for young farmers purchasing their first farmland valued up to $300,000 These initiatives have already benefited approximately 3,200 Victorian families since taking effect on 1 July 2011.
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Planning Reforms
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Overarching Metropolitan Planning Strategy New outcomes-based Metropolitan Planning Strategy to manage Melbourne’s growth into the future Streamlining Planning Processes Ministerial Advisory Committee to review the Victorian planning system and recommend improvements
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Planning Reforms Growth Areas GAIC – deferment and works-in-kind Provide development-ready land Process for Logical Inclusions to the UGB Urban Renewal Established the Urban Renewal Authority to focus on strategic development sites Facilitating other key urban renewal projects
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Victorian Economic Update - Melbourne Construction Outlook Breakfast Kim Wells MP, Treasurer of Victoria 27July 2011
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Overview & Analysis of the Australian Construction Industry Rob Wild Cordell Information CEO
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Number of projects Value of projects ($bn)
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Number of projects Value of projects ($bn)
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Number of projects Value of projects ($bn)
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Number of projects Value of projects ($bn)
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Planning 20% In summary for Australia – 10/11 v’s 09/10: Construction 20% Deferred 10% Abandoned 55% Overall, Vic looking pretty good!
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The Housing 100 For 2010/11 Graham Wolfe HIA Chief Executive Association
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HIA-COLORBOND ® steel Housing 100 – 2010/11
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2011 Construction Outlook Breakfast
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