1. Vulnerability and adaption of agricultural sector to climate change, NAPA+
Ministry of Agriculture Khartoum State
Dr. Sumaya Ahmed Zakieldeen,
Institute of Environmental Studies, U of K
& Sudanese Environment Conservation Society
2/2/2010

2. From the 4th assessment report (IPCC)
Based on observations and projections, IPCC AR4 concluded that climate change is occurring now.
Past emissions are estimated to involve some unavoidable warming even if atmospheric GHG concentrations remain at 2000 levels.
There are some impacts for which adaptation is the only available and appropriate response

3. Con...
There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood.
For developing countries, availability of resources and building adaptive capacity are particularly important
Adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change, and especially not over the long run as most impacts increase in magnitude

4. The scientific basis (IPCC AR4)

5. Climate Change and Africa: Projected Impacts on agriculture
Decrease in length of growing season, and areas suitable for rain-fed agriculture.
Variable impacts on livestock
Reductions in fish population with increased temperature.

6. The scientific basis (IPCC AR4)

7. Vulnerability
Is the potential to be adversely affected by an event or a change and the ability to cope with or recover from its impacts.
The extent to which climate change may damage or harm a system depends on the system’s sensitivity and ability to adapt to new conditions.

8. Adaptation
Adjustment made in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects in order to moderate harm or make use of beneficial opportunities.
Adaptation has to be seen as an essentially dynamic, continuous and non-linear process, this has considerable implications for the tools and methods needed to guide it

9. Sudan is particularly concerned with impacts of climate change:
the majority of its land is quite sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation.
weak infrastructure
food security is mainly determined by rainfall
more than 70% of Sudan population is directly dependant on climate-sensitive resources for their livelihoods

10. Agriculture and forestry: Shift in the agro ecological zones southward
Vulnerability Assessment from the First National communication (Projected Impacts next 30 – 60 years)
Agriculture and forestry:
Shift in the agro ecological zones southward
Shrinking in current crop production areas.
Crop yield decline in selected stations by 29% - 71% for Sorghum (more affected than millet) and 15% - 62% for Millet
Gum Arabic yields predicted to decline between 25% and 30% region-wide.

11. Water sector
Greater water deficit is expected in years 2030 and 2060, due to a decline in projected rainfall and an increase in the PETs from temperature rise.

12. SUDAN NORMAL RAINFALL IN MM FOR THE PERIOD 1941-1970 COMPARED TO 1971-2000
ABH
ABN
AQQ
ARB
ARM
ATB
BAR
BNS
DMZ
DNG
DUM
NSR
FSH
GDF
GEN
HAL
HAS
HDB
HLG
JUB
KDG
KHA
KHW
KRM
KSL
KST
KUR
MLK
NHD
NYL
OBD
PSD
RAG
RNK
RSH
SNR
SHW
SHM
SHN
TKR
TOR
UMB
WAU
WHF
WMD
NAG
PIB
MAR
YEI
YAM
KAP
22.00
24.00
26.00
28.00
30.00
32.00
34.00
36.00
38.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
500 mm
200 mm
Meteorological Authority 2008

13. SUDAN RAINFALL COEFFICIENT OF VARIABILITY IN PERCENTAGE FOR THE PERIOD (1971-2000)
ABH
ABN
AQQ
ARB
ARM
ATB
BAR
BNS
DMZ
DNG
DUM
NSR
FSH
GDF
GEN
HAL
HAS
HDB
HLG
JUB
KDG
KHA
KHW
KRM
KSL
KST
KUR
MLK
NHD
NYL
OBD
PSD
RAG
RNK
RSH
SNR
SHW
SHM
SHN
TKR
TOR
UMB
WAU
WHF
WMD
NAG
MAR
PIB
8.00
YAM
KAP
22.00
24.00
26.00
28.00
30.00
32.00
34.00
36.00
38.00
4.00
6.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
Source: NAPA 2007

14. National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)
Partners: HCENR, UNDP, MIC, governments of Central Equatoria, River Nile, Gedarif, South Darfour and North Kordofan states
Goal: identify urgent and immediate activities to address climate variability and climate change within the context of the country’s economic development priorities.
Focused on three sectors
planning, awareness, capacity building, identification of adaptation activities for implementation through LDCF.

15. THE FIVE ECOLOGICAL ZONES SELECTED FOR THE SUDANESE NAPA

16. Least Developed Countries (LDCs)

17. Agriculture, livestock, water resources and health.
Event
Occurrence
Vulnerable areas
Sectors
Drought
Frequent
North & Western Sudan (North Kordofan and Darfur), Kassala State and some parts of the rain-fed areas in central Sudan.
Agriculture, livestock,
water resources and health.
Floods
Areas within the River Nile basin
and low areas from extreme South to far North. Mountain areas along Red
Sea.
Water resources and
health.
Heat waves
Rare
Northern, central parts of Sudan
besides the Red Sea State.
Health, agriculture &
livestock
Source: NAPA 2007

18. Source: Ministry of Agriculture NyalaRF
Source: Ministry of Agriculture Nyala

19. NAPA projects and activities
Represent urgent and immediate needs of the most vulnerable groups
Prepared through a participatory and consultative approach (government, research, universities, civil society, local and tradition leaders etc.)
Aimed at improving the adaptive capacity of the communities affected by climate change
Aimed at removing barriers to development caused by the impacts of climate change

20. Key non-climatic factors contributing to the vulnerability of rural communities in Sudan
Severe poverty levels
Lack of income diversity
Lack of agricultural inputs
Mismanagement of resources
Over-cultivation of land
Fragile land or water resources
Poor soil fertility
Deforestation
Conflict over natural resources
Poor extension services
Displacement of communities
Poor sanitation or health services

21. The components of the NAPA :
Programmes or projects (Pilot for the zones) addressing the urgent and immediate adaptation needs
Recommendations for improving current policies to be more comprehensive and relevant to climate change
Recommendations for improving the effectiveness of the institutional framework to integrate and implement the strategy

22. The highly ranked adaptation projects in in based on region-specific evaluation criteria
Ecological Zone
Adaptation option
Desert Zone (River Nile State)
Improving sustainable agricultural practices under increasing heat-stress in the River Nile State
Semi desert Zone (North Kordofan State)
Environmental conservation and biodiversity restoration in northern Kordofan State as a coping mechanism for rangeland protection under conditions of increasing climate variability
Savannah on clayey soil (Gedarief State)
Enhancing resilience to rainfall variability through rangeland rehabilitation and water harvesting in the Butana area of Gedarif State
Savannah on sandy soil (South Darfour State)
Reducing the vulnerability of communities in drought-prone areas of southern Darfur State through improved water harvesting practices
Southern Sudan (Central Equatorial State)
Strategies to adapt to drought-induced water shortages in highly vulnerable areas in Central Equatorial State

23. Activities Highly in demand
Developing a drought early warning system through the installation of rain measurement and other meteorological measurement equipment and technologies;
Designing and constructing water harvesting systems
Extension, training and building awareness (pastoralists, farmers, local people)
Combat desertification by a-forestation, fruit tree planting and agro forestry
Establishment of rocky barriers to reduce wind speed and intensification of trees planting in villages and towns and along irrigation channels
Sand dunes fixation through planting of shelter belts and wind breaks

24. Con... Rehabilitation of Gum Arabic belt
Rehabilitation of rangeland and provision of satisfactory veterinary services
Introduction of heat and drought resistant Crop varieties
diversification of grown crops in each season to reduce risk of mono-cropping
 enhancement of biodiversity
Introduction of renewable energy sources
Provision of revolving fund
Poverty reduction

25. Indigenous knowledge for coping with climate change
Introduction of drought resistant plants by the local experience (Araak trees in El Gadaref, found suitable for agro-forestry)
Introduction of some traditional ways of water harvest by local communities (e.g. tarras)
Use local knowledge of the stars as EWS
Cultivation of high land or low lands based on rainy season expectation
Development early maturing varieties
Early seeding (locally known as Tarmeel i.e. seeding in dry sand)
etc.

26. Policies
Lack of policies and strategies that guarantee food security (for both human and animals)
Policies and strategies are not pursuing the ideal environmental utilization of natural resources
Strategies are not targeting the increase of production
Gaps in laws and legislations that regulate work

27. Institutions
 Lack of spatial cooperation and coordination at different levels despite the intersection between the different related sectors;
Lack of stability of institutions, particularly in the water resource management sector;
Lack of expertise related to water resource management
Absence of an environmental protection unit at water institutions
Lack/absence of sustained institutional capacity strengthening;

28. AIACC (Assessment of Impact and Adaptation to Climate Change)
Identified successful adaptation options
Clearly stated that certain SL/EM measures could increase the resilience of communities to climate related shocks
Showed that Adaptive capacity can improve where people have better access to resources, market, technology, information, social service, high level of awareness, skills, security , strong institutions and effective organizations

29. Locations AIACC Project

30. rehabilitated land forage production carrying capacity
Before
After
rehabilitated land
100 80 60 40 20
forage production
carrying capacity
Productivity of natural capital before and after intervention of range land rehabilitation project

31. Adaptation and development
To address climate change effectively and achieve sustainable development, there is need to do development differently.
This requires not only doing development better, but also adapting development policies to take climate change into account.
As a country we need to make sure that in our activities we incorporate climate change risks and opportunities into national strategies and plans
Protection of existing development projects and programs and their beneficiaries from the impact of climate variability and change
Additional cost

32. Agriculture
Thank you 32