1. Exchange Rates

2. Exchange Rates FREELY FLOATING RIGIDLY FIXED CLEAN FLOATING
DIRTY FLOATING
MANAGED FLOATING
ADJUSTABLE PEG EXCHANGE RATES

3. Measuring the exchange rate
Spot Exchange Rate - This is determined by the FOREX market on a minute-by-minute basis on the basis.
Forward Exchange Rate - a forward rate involves the delivery of currency at some time in the future at an agreed rate. Companies wanting to reduce risk
Real Exchange Rate - this measure is the ratio of domestic price indices between two countries. A rise in the real exchange rate implies a worsening of international competitiveness for a country.

4. Free Floating Exchange Rate
The value of £ is determined purely by S & D of the currency
Sterling has floated freely since the UK suspended membership of the ERM in September 1992

5. Managed Floating Exchange Rate
The value of the pound determined by market demand for and supply of the currency
Central banks may to try to iron out big changes in exchange rates on a day-to-day basis
Managed floating was a policy pursued from

6. Semi-Fixed Exchange Rates Adjustable Peg
The exchange rate is given a specific target
The currency can move between permitted bands on a day-to-day basis
The National Bank might have to intervene to maintain the value of the currency.

7. Fully-Fixed Exchange Rates
The government makes a commitment to a fixed exchange rate
There are no fluctuations from the central rate
System achieves exchange rate stability but perhaps at the expense of domestic stability

8. Fixed versus floating exchange rates – which is best for an economy?
: UK operated with a managed floating exchange rate. Intervention by BoE and govt controlled interest rates.
October September 1992: UK a member of the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM) – the exchange rate was a specific target of economic policy.
September 1992 – present day: the UK has operated with a free-floating exchange rate

9. 1992: UK crashes out of ERM
The government has suspended Britain's membership of the ERM
The UK's prime minister and chancellor tried all day to prop up a failing £.
Chancellor Norman Lamont raised interest rates from 10% to 12%, then to 15% then back to 12% on same day.

10. Black Wednesday
George Soros the most high profile of the currency market investors, made over 1 billion GBP profit by short selling sterling.

11. Black Wednesday
Treasury spent £27 billion of reserves in propping up the pound.

12. Greece and Euro? Stability and Growth Pact
1997Maastricht convergence criteria
Annual budget deficit no higher than 3% of GDP
a national debt lower than 60% of GDP

13. The case for floating exchange rates:
Reduced need for currency reserves to prop up the currency:
Useful macroeconomic instrument
Partial correction for a trade deficit:
Reduced risk of currency speculation:
Freedom (autonomy) for domestic monetary policy:

14. The Case for Fixed Exchange Rates
Trade and Investment: Currency stability
Some flexibility permitted:
Disciplines on domestic producers:
Reinforcing gains in comparative advantage

15. Trends Value of the Tenge 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Exchange rate Tenge: US$ (av)
149.58
136.04
132.88
126.09
122.6
122.55
Exchange rate Tenge: € (av)
168.79
169.04
165.42
158.27
167.8
167.75
SOURCES: Kazakh Statistical Agency, Investor's Guide, Nationalbank Kazakhstan

16. Kazakhstan September 2, 2013, Kazakhstan will peg its tenge to:-
Euro %
US dollar 70%
Rouble 10%

17. Marshall-Lerner Condition and J Curve
when does a real devaluation improve the current-account balance of a country?
Exportsped+Importsped > 1

18. Rationale behind J-Curve
In short run after a devaluation, M and X will remain unchanged.
In the long run consumers will have a chance to adjust.

19. The J Curve