1. Buckinghamshire County Council Demographic and Deprivation Change in Buckinghamshire Marcus Grupp Holly Pedrick Policy, Performance and Communications

2. Buckinghamshire County Council Purpose To provide an update as to the changes underway in the Bucks population To consider how the information can be used to shape services

3. Buckinghamshire County Council Drivers of population change: births TFR increasing – 2.1 children per woman (England similar) Increases FR for all women key child bearing age (not under 20s and 40+) Rising births – 11% higher since 2001 (+600 yr) Total Fertility Rate (TFR) TFR

4. Buckinghamshire County Council Drivers of population change: births - deaths Births - constant TFR (2.10) = 500 extra births annually Deaths - constant 4k per year Natural increase in population due to more births than deaths Natural population change

5. Buckinghamshire County Council Drivers of population change: age structure of population More pensioner houses Less families 19,838 more people (33%) 8,031 less young people (-6%) 4,519 less people (-1%) Modelled births (could be 5k higher with 2.1 TFR) Less young people

6. Buckinghamshire County Council Drivers of population change: housing Household size = falling –2.47 people per house (2011) to 2.32 (2026) –2.32 causes current population (510k) to fall by 21k (4%), but –15k new builds allocated creates a net rise 4k people (514k) by 2026 Uncertainty in AVDC - 15k homes to keep workforce constant (2006-2031) –extra 4,500 to 13,500 homes not currently allocated (AVDC) Number of houses affects net migration...

7. Buckinghamshire County Council Drivers of population change: migration Lots movement in population (6% of Bucks population) –UK migration – 27k move in / 26k leave –Overseas migration – 3.9k move in / 3.7k leave Net Migration

8. Buckinghamshire County Council What does this mean for Bucks… Small population increase - 1.2% –aging population –‘low’ number of new builds Uncertainty around CYP numbers –9k less 0-15’s (1.9 TFR) –No change 0-15’s (2.1 TFR) Housing –15,000 less working age –More allocations by AVDC? Uncertainty due to TFRs and houses builds * Clear aging population % change - 2011 to 2026

9. Buckinghamshire County Council Population Changes Increasing populations: –Urban –stable births and deaths –net in-migration increase –house builds 2.5 x higher Decreasing populations: –rural –aging population, more deaths –falling births –Lowest rate of house builds Get rid of decimals on legend Locality differences -12% to -7% 3% to 7% 2011 to 2026

10. Buckinghamshire County Council Deprivation Issues and People at Risk 9% of children live in families in receipt of out of work benefits (9.4k) –More families experience income deprivation in areas classified as deprived by IMD 6% of children receive free school meals (4.4k) –Worse educational outcomes for these pupils Overall educational attainment is 65% –Most affluent ACORN groups 2.5x higher than least affluent groups Higher proportion of BME population in deprived areas –Worse education outcomes overall (Early years and KS1, 2 and 4) and youth offending

11. Buckinghamshire County Council Deprivation Issues and People at Risk 7.4% of babies born were classed as low birth weight (national average 7.6%) –Higher percentage of babies with low birth weight in IMD most deprived areas Increasing birth rate –Birth rate twice as high among the IMD most deprived areas than least deprived areas People who are affluent are less likely to become deprived –Current HP / MM areas previously classed as HP, MM, SS/PP, SF and UP 356 Looked After Children (LAC) in Bucks (2010) –LAC 2x higher in IMD deprived LLSOA’s (0.62% v’s 0.31% of under 18s) –60% LAC from Moderate Means / Hard Pressed areas (4x ave. MM, 7x HP ) 45% of children have experienced bullying –Pupils from Hard Pressed and Urban Prosperity (town) areas are most affected 90 young women referred to ‘RU Safe’ (2009-2010) –Higher risk of sexual exploitation for those who go missing frequently or live in care 11

12. Buckinghamshire County Council Index of Multiple Deprivation (2010) Aylesbury High Wycombe Seven IMD Domains 1.Income Deprivation 2.Employment Deprivation 3.Health Deprivation and Disability 4.Education, Skills and Training Deprivation 5.Barriers to Housing and Services 6.Crime 7.Living Environment Deprivation

13. Buckinghamshire County Council Number of people at risk Multiple issues are experienced by those most in need Large number people affected and getting worse - 4% population IMD No. of 30% most deprived areas (English scale) 5,000 children aged 0-15

14. Buckinghamshire County Council Hard Pressed and Moderate Means ACORN Variables Age quartiles Ethnicity Type of employment Level of qualifications Socio economic classification Commute method Type of residential dwelling Number of cars per household Property owner or renter Rooms and population per household

15. Buckinghamshire County Council Moderate Means and Hard Pressed Households Number of Households Percentage of Households Urban20,57557% Market Town12,63435% Rural2,3176% Isolated6612% Total36,187100% Isolated not shown on map Only half of those affected are in Aylesbury & Wycombe Hard Pressed and Moderate Means

16. Buckinghamshire County Council Moderate Means and Hard Pressed Households Number of Households Percentage of Households Urban20,57557% Market Town12,63435% Rural2,3176% Isolated6612% Total36,187100% Isolated not shown on map Only half of those affected are in Aylesbury & Wycombe Over 1/3 rd in Market Towns Hard Pressed and Moderate Means

17. Buckinghamshire County Council Moderate Means and Hard Pressed Households Number of Households Percentage of Households Urban20,57557% Market Town12,63435% Rural2,3176% Isolated6612% Total36,187100% Isolated not shown on map Only half of those affected are in Aylesbury & Wycombe Over 1/3 rd in Market Towns 1 in 10 in rural / isolated Hard Pressed and Moderate Means

18. Buckinghamshire County Council Number of households at risk ACORN Moderate Means / Hard Pressed Households Change (2008-2011) +29% Hard Pressed -8% Moderate Means + 12% Both groups 15.7k households are MM / HP families

19. Buckinghamshire County Council Key Issues Recent unpredicted rise in TFR – more children Falling household size – uncertainty of new house builds in AVDC Reduction in population aged 0 – 15, but if new TFR remains constant then there will be no overall change Children and families in areas at risk of deprivation are at a greater risk of experiencing certain issues e.g. LAC Large number of children and families living in areas where people experience a range of deprivation issues Around half of all areas at risk of deprivation are not in the urban areas in Bucks How can this information be used to better shape services?