1. Chile earthquake and tsunami earthquaketsunamiearthquaketsunami MagnitudeMagnitude 8.8; hypocenter 21 miles Magnitude Tsunami

2. Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami

3. Changed the planet’s axis by three inches Large mass of rock moved Large mass of rock moved Nearby island uplifted 2 feet Nearby island uplifted 2 feet Steep sloping subduction zone Steep sloping subduction zone Each day should be 1.26 microsecond shorter (hundredth of a second) Each day should be 1.26 microsecond shorter (hundredth of a second) Chile: M 8.8 earthquake

4. Chile: aftershocks Magnitudes: 6, 5.1, 4.9 TsunamiTsunami warning Tsunami

5. Predicting volcanic eruptions and reducing the risk

6. What can scientists do to reduce volcanic risk?

7. Mitigation: measures to reduce risk Understanding the potential hazards Understanding the potential hazards Hazard maps Hazard maps Monitoring Monitoring Emergency plan in place and practiced Emergency plan in place and practiced Education of government officials and public Education of government officials and public

8. This process begins with the gathering of scientific information

9. Understanding the Past The eruptive history is very important. The eruptive history is very important. Ancient volcanic deposits are dated to determine frequency of eruptions. Ancient volcanic deposits are dated to determine frequency of eruptions.

10. An understanding of the potential hazard

11. Understanding of hazards: provide definition and potential location People will evacuate when there is an understanding of the potential destruction from a hazard. People will evacuate when there is an understanding of the potential destruction from a hazard.

12. Successful prediction of Mt. Pinatubo, 1991 The Philippine government used volcanic hazard videos and other information to educate the public The Philippine government used volcanic hazard videos and other information to educate the public Successful evacuation Successful evacuation

13. Disaster Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Columbia, 1985 The people of Armero did not understand the potential hazards of a lahar The people of Armero did not understand the potential hazards of a lahar Government officials knew about the potential hazard Government officials knew about the potential hazard 23,000 fatalities 23,000 fatalities

14. Hazard Map of Mt. Rainier: map indicates previous lahar and pyroclastic flows Results: where one would expect these hazards to occur in the future Map ancient volcanic deposits.

15. Lassen Peak, Hazard Map Vents that have produced eruptions Vents that have produced eruptions Yellow- lava flow zones Yellow- lava flow zones Gold- ash fall zone Gold- ash fall zone Orange-combined Orange-combined Pink-mudflows Pink-mudflows Aqua- floods Aqua- floods

16. MonitoringMonitoring Precursors Monitoring Physical changes are known to precede a volcanic eruption. Physical changes are known to precede a volcanic eruption. Name changes in volcanic activity. These changes are called precursors. Name changes in volcanic activity. These changes are called precursors. Seismicity Deformation Snow melt Water levels and chemistry Gas emission Small eruptions

17. Monitoring methods

18. Movement of magma into the system tends to inflate the volcano’s surface Movement of magma into the system tends to inflate the volcano’s surface Tiltmeters Tiltmeters Global Positioning Stations (GPS) Global Positioning Stations (GPS) Radar interferometry- satellite Radar interferometry- satellite Monitoring Volcanoes Ground Deformation

19. Deformation Direct measurements are made when the volcano is increasing in precursor activity Direct measurements are made when the volcano is increasing in precursor activity Tiltmeter Global Positioning Satellites record vertical and horizontal movement of the volcano

20. Monitoring Volcanoes Seismicity Magma fractures cooler rock causing earthquakes Magma fractures cooler rock causing earthquakes An increase in the number of earthquakes may indicate an imminent eruption An increase in the number of earthquakes may indicate an imminent eruption Mt. St. Helens

21. Seismometer Seismic waves move through the crust and reach the seismometer Seismic waves move through the crust and reach the seismometer The seismometer records the strength and type of movement The seismometer records the strength and type of movement The information is sent to a station and recorded through radio waves or satellite communication The information is sent to a station and recorded through radio waves or satellite communication Seismometer placed near Mt. St. Helens

22. Monitoring the Long Valley Caldera Ground deformation Ground deformation Resurgent dome grew is 80 centimeters from the late 1970’s to 1999 Resurgent dome grew is 80 centimeters from the late 1970’s to 1999 minor subsidence since 1999 minor subsidence since 1999

23. Seismicity averages 5-10 earthquakes per day since 1999 Seismicity averages 5-10 earthquakes per day since 1999 Occasionally swarms of earthquakes cause alarm (200- 300/week) Occasionally swarms of earthquakes cause alarm (200- 300/week) generally less than M=2 generally less than M=2 Monitoring the Long Valley Caldera

26. Mt. St. Helens Seismic activity increased in 2005 Seismic activity increased in 2005 Increased monitoring of activity Increased monitoring of activity Seismicity Seismicity Visual inspections Visual inspections Gas emissions Gas emissions

27. Mt. St. Helens Alert level 2: activity increasing that lead to a hazardous volcanic eruption Alert level 2: activity increasing that lead to a hazardous volcanic eruption Aviation level orange- ash to 30,000 feet, traveling 100 miles Aviation level orange- ash to 30,000 feet, traveling 100 miles

28. Seismicity With more than three stations the initial rupture of the earthquake is located With more than three stations the initial rupture of the earthquake is located Outlining the size and location of the magma chamber Outlining the size and location of the magma chamber

29. Mt. St Helens Green dots represent activity in the past 24 hours. Green dots represent activity in the past 24 hours.

30. Gas Emissions: as magma ascends, decompression melting releases gas Sulfur dioxide cloud, three hours after eruption Direct and indirect measurements Direct and indirect measurements Increase in gas emissions may indicate an imminent eruption Increase in gas emissions may indicate an imminent eruption

31. Mt. St. Helens Mt. St. Helens Volcanic watch

32. Carbon dioxide escape from the magma chamber Carbon dioxide escape from the magma chamber Associated with faults that act as pathways Associated with faults that act as pathways 50-150 tons per day since 1996 50-150 tons per day since 1996 level remains the same level remains the same Horseshoe lake Horseshoe lake Monitoring the Long Valley Caldera

33. Gas Emissions Direct sampling is completed by collecting the gas in a liquid Direct sampling is completed by collecting the gas in a liquid Analysis is done at a laboratory Analysis is done at a laboratory

34. Composite satellite image of ash produced from Mt. Spur, Alaska over a one week period Satellite images can monitor movement of ash in the atmosphere. Ash abrades windows and can cause engine failure

35. Satellite sensors are able to detect increased temperatures before an eruption Satellite sensors are able to detect increased temperatures before an eruption Used for remote active volcanoes or if seismicity does not precede an eruption Used for remote active volcanoes or if seismicity does not precede an eruption Thermal Change indicates magma moving closer to the surface Pavlov Volcano, Alaska

36. Lahar Warning System System Sensors detect high frequency vibrations produced by lahars moving down a stream channel Sensors detect high frequency vibrations produced by lahars moving down a stream channel Sensors are placed downstream from volcano but upstream from population Sensors are placed downstream from volcano but upstream from population

37. Warning System System

38. Warning System Normal: Typical background activity; non-eruptive state Normal: Typical background activity; non-eruptive state Advisory: Elevated unrest above known background activity Advisory: Elevated unrest above known background activity Watch: Heightened/escalating unrest with increased potential for eruptive activity Watch: Heightened/escalating unrest with increased potential for eruptive activity Warning: Highly hazardous eruption underway or imminent Warning: Highly hazardous eruption underway or imminent

39. Aviation Warning System Green: normal activity Green: normal activity Yellow: exhibiting signs of elevated unrest Yellow: exhibiting signs of elevated unrest Orange: heightened unrest with increased likelihood of eruption (specify ash plume height) Orange: heightened unrest with increased likelihood of eruption (specify ash plume height) Red: eruption’s forecast to be imminent with significant emission of ash into the atmosphere (specify ash plume height) Red: eruption’s forecast to be imminent with significant emission of ash into the atmosphere (specify ash plume height)

40. Educating the Public

41. Communication Most important : think of the disasters in the past 6 years

42. Volcanic Disaster Assistance Program

43. The primary purpose is to save lives in developing countries. The primary purpose is to save lives in developing countries. Works with the Office of /Foreign disaster Assistance Works with the Office of /Foreign disaster Assistance U.S. Agency for International Development U.S. Agency for International Development Volcanic Disaster Assistance Program

44. The Volcanic Disaster Assistance Program was developed after the 1985 eruption of Nevada del Ruiz. The Volcanic Disaster Assistance Program was developed after the 1985 eruption of Nevada del Ruiz. Since 1986, the response team organized and operated by the U.S.G.S. responds globally to eminent probable volcanic eruptions. Since 1986, the response team organized and operated by the U.S.G.S. responds globally to eminent probable volcanic eruptions. Volcanic Disaster Assistance Program Nevada del Ruiz lahar that killed 23.000 people.

45. Communication to Public Increase in seismic activity in 1996 Increase in seismic activity in 1996 Alaska Alaska Prevent evacuation of 1,000 residents Prevent evacuation of 1,000 residents Prevent closing of fishing industry Prevent closing of fishing industry

46. The eruption of Rabaul, Papua New Guinea, September, 1994. Residents who witnessed the 1937 eruption explained what occurred Residents who witnessed the 1937 eruption explained what occurred Education of the local population through community groups Education of the local population through community groups Successful evacuation due to following the plan Successful evacuation due to following the plan

47. Real time monitoring

48. Successful Prediction Mount Pinatubo, 1991 Mount Pinatubo, 1991 Approximately 330,000 people evacuated prior to the eruption

49. Evaluation of Risk Zones of highest to lowest risk should be identified Zones of highest to lowest risk should be identified Urban planning should take in account the areas of highest risk Urban planning should take in account the areas of highest risk These areas should be evacuated first These areas should be evacuated first

50. Applying the Volcano Explosivity Index Applying the Volcano Explosivity Index Mt. Pinatubo- 6-7 Mt. Pinatubo- 6-7 Amount of property damage Amount of property damage Population Population This equates to the amount of risk This equates to the amount of risk Risk

51. Evaluation of Volcanic Risk United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization-UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization-UNESCO Risk=(value)x(vulnerability)x(hazard) Risk=(value)x(vulnerability)x(hazard) Value= # of lives, monetary goods in area Value= # of lives, monetary goods in area Vulnerability=% of lives or goods likely to be lost in a given event Vulnerability=% of lives or goods likely to be lost in a given event Hazard=based on the Volcanic Explosivity Index- VEI Hazard=based on the Volcanic Explosivity Index- VEI

52. Volcanic Explosivity Index Volume of material Volume of material Eruption column height Eruption column height Eruptive style Eruptive style How long the major eruptive burst lasted How long the major eruptive burst lasted Plinian: 5-7; 1993 Lascar Volcano, Chile Hawaiian: 0-2

53. Tambora eruption, 1815: VEI 7

54. Mt. Vesuvius produced a VEI 5 eruption in 79 CE. Mt. Vesuvius produced a VEI 5 eruption in 79 CE. Mt. Vesuvius Mt. Vesuvius There are now 3 million people living on and near this volcano. There are now 3 million people living on and near this volcano. Less than 1% chance for another eruption this size in the next 10 years Less than 1% chance for another eruption this size in the next 10 years High risk coefficient due to the high population density High risk coefficient due to the high population density Evaluation of Risk Mt. Vesuvius, Pliny

55. Vesuvius Erupts Computer simulations help understand which areas would be affected first Computer simulations help understand which areas would be affected first Those communities should be evacuated first Those communities should be evacuated first

56. Mt. Vesuvius, Areas of Risk Emergency plan assumes that there can be a 20 day warning

57. Without warning Estimated 15-20,000 casualties Estimated 15-20,000 casualties What do you think? What do you think? 1944 eruption

58. Mitigation Understanding the potential hazards Understanding the potential hazards Hazard maps Hazard maps Monitoring Monitoring Emergency plan in place and practiced Emergency plan in place and practiced Education of government officials and public Education of government officials and public Communication clear between scientists, government officials and the public Communication clear between scientists, government officials and the public