1. Session 3: Drivers, processes and policy assessments
Martin Herold and Niki de Sy
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
Ministry of Agriculture
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
Environmental Protection Authority
Workshop for developing a roadmap for an Ethiopian national REDD+ MRV framework

2. Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation
A synthesis report for REDD+ policymakers
Aim/goal of report
Commissioned by United Kingdom Departments for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and International development (DFID) and The Government of Norway’s International Climate and Forest initiative.

3. Drivers of deforestation and degradation
Proximate/direct causes: human activities or immediate actions that directly impact forest cover and loss of carbon
Deforestation: commercial agriculture, subsistence agriculture, mining, infrastructure and urban expansion
Forest degradation: logging, fires, livestock grazing in forest, fuelwood collection and charcoal production
Underlying/indirect causes: complex interactions of fundamental social, economic, political, cultural and technological processes that are often distant from their area of impact
Important to address them separately and examine them at various scales for specific analysis and intervention strategies

4. Direct or proximate drivers

5. Indirect or underlying drivers
Economic growth
Population growth / Urban growth
Demand for timber and agricultural products
Weak forest sector governance and institutions, conflicting policies beyond forest sector and illegal activity
Poverty and insecure tenure
Economic growth based on export of primary commodities and increasing demand for timber and agricultural products in a globalizing economy
Population growth / Urban growth
Poor governance, corruption, low capacity of public forestry agencies, land tenure uncertainties and inadequate national resource planning
Future: global urbanization, developping country prosperity, changing food consumption patterns, growth in developping country regional markets for key commodities

6. Role of drivers in national forest monitoring

7. Importance of monitoring drivers
Identifying forest change drivers (locally, nationally, internationally) is needed to:
help track their activities over time,
attribute emissions to specific causes,
design dedicated mitigation actions that address them,
assess the impact of mitigation actions,
facilitate engagement with non-forest sectors

8. Analysing and assessing proximate drivers
Linking forest (area) changes to specific activities and follow-up land use is essential for assessing drivers
Spatial context and location, and other features (e.g. roads, settlements) can help in interpretation
Remote sensing analysis
Local and regional knowledge (experts and communities), ground observations
GHG emissions from drivers: commonly not available on national level
Type and drivers have great influence on net forest carbon impacts – and the way these impacts can be measured and monitored

9. Carbon stock changes due to different deforestation and degradation processes

10. Drivers: REDD+ policy development and implementation

11. Interventions at relevant scales and key actors

12. Adequate approaches and information
Countries should:
Consider and integrate of information beyond the forest sector: track driver activity, social and environmental safeguards, and evaluation of trade-offs and livelihood implications
Recognize linkages between REDD+ and emerging agricultural mitigation and adaptation—orchestrated and complementary funding streams to countries
Established uniform criteria on land-use classifications + capacities of sectoral and regional information systems

13. Conclusions: International level
Countries focused on national and local level drivers, but face international drivers that are expected to increase in pressure.
Promote government-facilitated commitments on sustainable commodities, public-private partnerships (can influence indirect land use change and foreign direct investment).
International information sharing: cross-border trade, domestic and trans-boundary drivers, best practices and lessons learned, periodic global assessments.
Recognize linkages between REDD+ and emerging agricultural mitigation and adaptation—orchestrated and complementary funding streams to countries (link and integrate REDD+ activities and NAMAs, particularly agriculture).

14. A summary for Ethiopia

15. Key Direct drivers (R-PP)
Conversion of forests to agricultural land
The impact is set to increase, as agricultural land requirements will increase by an estimated 19 MHa by 2030 in a ‘business as usual‘ growth path, spurred by strong governmental support to develop agriculture and sustained demographic growth of 2-3 % per year.
Unsustainable fuel wood consumption
As the evolution of fuel wood consumption is strongly correlated to population growth, its impact on degradation is expected to reach, in a ‘business as usual‘ scenario, 22Mt per year by 2030, as the Ethiopian population reaches 130 Mln people.
Other: logging, clearing to convert to pastureland, and clearing to build infrastructures.

16. Underlying drivers (R-PP)
Deficiencies in the regulatory and institutional environment:
Unclear user rights,
low empowerment of local communities
absence of benefit sharing mechanisms
‘open access’ mentality and conversion to agriculture
Inappropriate regulation, or the absence of means of implementation, combined with the absence of a strong, dedicated forestry institution, failed to protect forests.
lack of resources (i.e. financial, human and institutional capacity)
inherent deficiency of the forest regulatory instrument
resulted in widespread illegal/uncontrolled use of the forest
This, combined with irregularities and inconsistencies in the implementation of bans on forest products, created a disincentive for forest-dependent people to invest in forest management/protection because of a lack of security over future returns.

17. Planned interventions
Current strategies aimed at addressing deforestation and degradation in Ethiopia within the current legal and policy framework can be divided into:
(1) Plantation forest of exotic species,
(2) Agroforestry,
(3) Area closures of deforested areas for natural forest regeneration,
(4) Protected areas of natural forest, National Parks
(5) CDM project areas related to plantations or reforestations,

18. Planned interventions (continued)
(6) Devolution of forest management through participatory forest management (PFM),
(7) Traditional/customary forest management practices,
(8) REDD+ pilots
(9) National Bio fuel Strategy: national biogas program, rural electrification [renewable energy], dissemination of fuel efficient improved stoves
(10) Food Security Strategy
(11) Integration of REDD+ into budget, laws, policy, strategy, program, plan and projects