2. IMPROVING LUCF GHG INVENTORY and the FAO FRA: the Philippine Case Rodel D. Lasco Environmental Forestry Programme University of the Philippines

3. Introduction  evolution of GHG inventory in the LUCF sector in the Philippines  research efforts in improving GHG inventory in LUCF  The role of the FAO FRA project

4. I. Changes in forest and woody biomass 2 THE IPCC GUIDELINES FOR LUCF DATA NEEDS: area of forests annual growth rate carbon fraction of dry matter commercial harvest fuelwood use other wood used

5. II. Forests and grassland conversion Data Needs area converted annually biomass before and after conversion fraction of biomass burned on site fraction of biomass oxidized on site carbon fraction of biomass fraction left to decay

6. III. CO 2 emissions and uptake by soils Data Needs: Soil carbon Land area Base factor Tillage factor Input factors Annual C loss rate Total annual lime

7. Relationship among IPCC module categories Worksheet 5-2 Worksheet 5-3 Worksheet 5-4 Worksheet 5-5 Worksheet 5-6

8. 3 EVOLUTION OF GHG INVENTORY IN THE PHILIPPINE LUCF SECTOR Source 1990 inventory (1997 US Country Studies) 1990 inventory (1998 ALGAS) 1994 inventory (1999 Philippine Nat. Comm.) Change in Forests and biomass stocks-486542622-68323 Forest and grassland conversion1207388006968197 Abandonment of managed lands-1331 Not determined Net Emissions70,75381,360-126 Total Philippine emissions128,620164,103100,738 % of total emissions55.0149.58-0.13 In Gg CO 2 equivalent

9. Table 4 Annual aboveground biomass uptake used in the Philippine national GHG inventory (from Francisco, 1997) Land Type Annual Biomass Increment (Mg/ha/yr) Source/Comment Dipterocarp Old growth Residual 0 10 IPCC (1996) Pine Close Open 11.5 5.8 IPCC (1996) Half of closed pine forest Submarginal3.2 Expert’s judgment Mossy1.0 Expert’s judgment Mangrove 3.0 Expert’s judgment Brushland 1.0 Expert’s judgment Forest plantations < 25 years old 26-30 years old 31-40 years old 432 432 Expert’s judgment Non-forest Trees Coconut Fruit trees Rubber Coffee/cacao 3242 3242 Expert’s judgment

10. Main sources of key activity data for the LUCF sector GHG InventorySource of data 1990 Inventory (US countries Studies program) Land area: FMB statistics Biomass/Carbon stocks/change: Expert’s judgment; literature 1990 Inventory (ALGAS) Land area: FMB statistics Biomass/Carbon stocks/change: Expert’s judgment; literature 1994 Inventory (1999 Philippines’ National Communication) Land area: FMB statistics Biomass/carbon stocks/change: Philippine data from Lasco and Pulhin (2000a)

11. 4 Research Efforts to Improve GHG Inventory  LUCF research intensified in the last few years  Through Environmental Forestry Programme

12. 189 (48%) 2.3 (0.6%) 1.2 (0.3%) 4.8 (1.2%) SOC= 191 (49%) Roots = 4.3 (1.1%) Fig. 1 Carbon density (t/ha) of natural forests in Leyte, Philippines Total C density= 393 t/ha

15. Table 6 Comparison of results between the 1994 inventory and latest inventory Source Mtons CO 2 or CO 2 equivalent 1994 Inventory (Philippine NC, 1999) 1997-98 Inventory (Lasco 2001) Biomass growth -111 -222 Harvests4231 On site and off site burning 3625 Decay3323 Net Absorption <1 (0.126) -142

16. FAO FRA in the Philippines  Objective: to develop capacities of forest institutions to design, plan, implement forest inventory projects and manage information  Using systematic inventory sampling design  82 1 x 1km field observation sites (FOS)  Eventually: 395 FOS nationwide  four 20 x 250m plots per FOS  Bio-physical and socio-economic variables will be collected  Tree diameter, height; biodiversity; soil samples

17. Potential Synergy with GHG Inventory  FRA could provide key activity data: area of forest types  With minimal cost: above-ground and below ground carbon can be measured

18. STEP 1 ABCDE Area of Forest/Biomass Stocks (Mha) Annual Growth Rate (t dm/ha/yr) Annual Biomass Increment [x 1 yr] (Mt dm) Carbon Fraction of Dry Matter Total Carbon Uptake Increment (kt C) Forest Dipterocarp C = A x B E = C x D x 1000 Old Growth0.8052.101.690.50845 Residual2.7306.5017.750.457,932 Pine0.2285.801.320.45591 Submarginal0.4753.201.520.45679 Mossy1.0401.001.040.45465 Mangrove0.1123.000.340.45150 Tree Plantation0.51812.006.220.432,680 Upland farms14.1203.0042.360.4519,062 Brushland2.2323.207.140.453,214 Grassland2.4470.00 0.40 SUBTOTAL35,619 FRA data

22. FRA: Potential CDM Application  The Philippines has received proposals for LUCF projects  FRA could provide data on:  Suitable areas  Potential carbon benefits

23. An Example: Mitigation Potential  OGF Dipterocarp forests will be protected for biodiversity  Rehabilitate open grassland areas and degraded brushland areas by reforestation/afforestation and natural regeneration  Main determinant for additional areas under mitigation is the demand for wood products High Scenario  correspond on 25-year Master Plan  aggressive tree planting program (100-150,000 ha/yr) Low Scenario  50% of high scenario

26. Concluding Remarks  Large uncertainty remains on LUCF GHG inventory  Much progress has been done in the last few years but much remains to be done  The FAO FRA presents a great opportunity to improve GHG inventory dramatically  a nationwide systematic sampling design  Carbon measurements can be incorporated  Results may also be useful for CDM

27. 1997: Default values 1998-1999: Small plots 2000-2002: Systematic plots 2002-??? FAO FRA

28. “People always talk about the weather, but nobody actually does anything about it.” Mark Twain Thank you!!!