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CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Projections of herd sizes with the CAPRI system - Wolfgang Britz - Institute for.

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Presentation on theme: "CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Projections of herd sizes with the CAPRI system - Wolfgang Britz - Institute for."— Presentation transcript:

1 CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Projections of herd sizes with the CAPRI system - Wolfgang Britz - Institute for Agricultural Policy University of Bonn, Germany CAPRI Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact

2 CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Content What is CAPRI ? CAPRI data base Data Sources Data Compilation Data Coverage The economic Model Structure Projection approach Some results

3 CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen What is CAPRI ? Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact analysis on regionalised level (NUTS II) on whole agricultural sector: all outputs/inputs covered based on a quantitative economic modelling system developed and maintained by an independent network of research institutions mainly funded by DG-RSRCH framework programs

4 CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen CAPRI Modelling system Modelling system consists of Regionalised data base Supply Module Market Module Exploitation and Reporting tools

5 CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen CAPRI data base Combines consistently time series at EU/national/regional/farm type level on herds/acreages, production, market balances on prices, economic accounts on input & output coefficients on policy instruments

6 CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Data sources As far as possible uniform sources EUROSTAT: market balances, slaughtering statistics, land use statistics, herd countings Farm Accounting Data Network: Production program for farm type module, Estimation of input demand functions Gaps closed by regional and national statistics Input/Output relations, emission coefficients etc. from different sources

7 CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Data compilation Own “base model” ensures consistent and closed data base Gaps are closed and inconsistencies removed by simultaneous estimation techniques under constraints capturing consistency requirements

8 CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Data coverage for Herd Sizes I Animal herds for dairy cows, other cows cattle raising (male & female calves, raising heifers) sows milk sheep & goat laying hens yearly averages over all available countings

9 CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Data coverage for Herd Sizes II Slaughtered heads for calves fattening (male/female) male adult fattening (male/female) pig fattening sheep & goat fattening poultry fattening estimates regarding the length of production cycle allow calculation of herd sizes

10 CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Consistency requirements Intertemporal flow model for herds: Slaughtered + herd size changes + exported animals = raised/born animals in t(-1) + imported animals Slaughter weight * slaughtered heads = production Market balances for meats, milk, eggs Fat and protein balances for milk and milk products Plausible number of siblings (cows, sows, mother sheep&goat) Male/Female relationship for calves Plausible slaughter weights and output coefficients

11 CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Herd flow model for cattle Beef Veal Raising female Calves Fattening male Calves Breeding Heifers Milk Cows Suckler Cows Male adult cattle High/Low Fattening Heifers High/Low Fattening female Calves Raising male Calves Male Calf Young heifer Young bull Young cow Female Calf

12 CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Ammonia Emissions Nitrogen from animals Crop N Need NH 3 Mineral NGrazing stable NH 3 storage NH 3 Organic N application NH 3

13 CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Market Module Spatial Multi-Commodity Model 11 regional aggregates plus all EU MS States Young Animal Market Module Linked MS Programming Models Supply Module 200 Regional or 1050 Farm Type Programming Models Perennial Sub-Module Policy Modules CAP Premiums (base areas,...) Aggregated Supply & Feed demand Aggregation Herds Acreages PricesPremiums Exploitation Env. Indicators Welfare analysis FEOGA budget Modelling system

14 CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Projections “Baseline”: developments of agricultural markets, prices, yields, input demand, cropping patterns, herd sizes... under continuation of current policy setting model mechanism + trend analysis + judgement + careful look at other projections model ensures closed balances for inputs and outputs (including nutrients, feed and young animals) and matching price developments

15 CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Reporting Java based Mapping tool HTML reporting tools (XML + XSL) Tables in DBMS

16 CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Stocking density with cattle heads/ha UAAR, average 1994

17 CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Methane emissions from animals In kg/ha UAA, average 1998

18 CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Methane emissions from animals Kg/ha UAA Percentage change, 2009/1998


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