1. Dr. Karen Edelvang Head of Research DHI Water-Environment-Health ENCORA YPEP seminar Skallingen 12 September 2007 The impact of climate on estuaries, marine and coastal environments

2. Expected effects on coast and sea Sea level rise Sea level rise Increased water temperatures Increased water temperatures Changes in meteorological events Changes in meteorological events Changes in wind climate Changes in wind climate Changes in the hydrological cycle and water balance Changes in the hydrological cycle and water balance

3. Resume of expected sea level rise from global climate models from global climate models

4. 4 Changes in sea level

5. –Various climate parameters –Effects of downscaling –Effects of changing paramaters (e.g. roughness length, surface ) Climate models GCM 250 km HIRHAM 0.44°

6. Sources: 1. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN); Columbia University; International Food Policy and Research Institute; and World Resources Institute. 2000, Gridded Population of the World, Version 2. Palisades, NY: CIESIN, Columbia University.

7. Consequences on the coastline Erosion of the coastline because of sea level rise Erosion of the coastline because of sea level rise Changes in wind patterns and storms leading to increased/changed ersoion patterns Changes in wind patterns and storms leading to increased/changed ersoion patterns Changes in wave patterns and extreme events Changes in wave patterns and extreme events Increase in flooding risk for shallow areas Increase in flooding risk for shallow areas Reduced effects of existing coastal protection (dikes) Reduced effects of existing coastal protection (dikes) Salt water intrusion in ground water Salt water intrusion in ground water Increased pressure on sluice capacities Increased pressure on sluice capacities Influence on harbour constructions Influence on harbour constructions

8. Fresh water Fresh water –Changes in runoff, lower oxygen concentrations, draught, floods Lakes Lakes –New species, deep lakes will be stratified and oxygen depleted, blue-green algae Coastal areas Coastal areas –Changes in salinity and stratification, warmer temperatures lead to new species, Major Baltic inflows will be weakened, sea level rise, oxygen depletion, Wadden Sea level keeps pace The sea The sea –Changes in primary production, changes in species, change in time of spring bloom, more acid conditions Results of the Danish research project CONWOY on climate change effects in the water environment

9. Some highlights Increase in plankton production (primary production) Increase in plankton production (primary production) Highest effects in the coastal zone. Effects decrease from shallow coast to deep sea Highest effects in the coastal zone. Effects decrease from shallow coast to deep sea Estuaries are vulnerable areas in the transition zone Estuaries are vulnerable areas in the transition zone Hydrodynamic models need adaption til climate scenarios Hydrodynamic models need adaption til climate scenarios Consequences of climate change needs some kind of validation Consequences of climate change needs some kind of validation

10. Sediments and ecology in selected Danish estuaries Odense Fjord The Baltic

11. Odense Fjord Changes in the sediment dynamics using the wind pattern 2070-2100: –Locally generated waves will change their course and strength –Winds will become stronger in winter and milder in summer 2000 2100

12. The Baltic Sea: ecosystem response

13. Salinity in the Danish straits

14. Ecological parameters Algae bloom in the Baltic

15. Forecast: Effect of a 50% increase in discharge from Danish fresh water sources Inorganic nitrogen January-February Primary production March-September

16. 8 9 10 11 12 Prim. prod. [mio. ton C] ReferencePrecipitationTemperatureUVB Forecast of the total change in primary production in the Baltic in the season March-September.

17. Adaptation to CC Different approaches and forms: AUTONOMOUS adaptation : Not deliberately designed to climate change - e.g. demand management, upon events PLANNED adaptation: The way forward though few examples - e.g. design standards for coastal defence, dikes etc. MAL-adaptation: moving the problem - e.g. upstream coastal protection harming downstream users

18. National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) framework WORSTMEDIUMMILD $$ $ $$$

19. Some concluding remarks To mitigate the impacts of climate change on the coast, the general point of view is adaption We need to improve today’s management to address tomorrow’s challenges Climate change is an added dimension to coastal management Climate change effects must to be integrated in ICZM

20. Thematic networks Theme 1Theme 1 Social and economic aspects of ICZM multifunctionality and Valuation Theme 1 Theme 2Theme 2 ICZM Participation and Implementation Theme 2 Theme 3Theme 3 Coastal and marine spatial planning Theme 3 Theme 4Theme 4 Pollution, prevention and mitigation Theme 4 Theme 5Theme 5 Long-term geomorphologic change and climate impacts Theme 5 Theme 6Theme 6 Effect of development and use on eco- morphology and coastal habitats Theme 6 Theme 7Theme 7 Assessment of biodiversity change Theme 7 Theme 8Theme 8 New sustainable coastal engineering techniques Theme 8 Theme 9Theme 9 Assessment of field observation techniques Theme 9 Theme 10Theme 10 Capacity Building, Training and Education Theme 10

21. Effect of development and use on ecomorphology and coastal habitats Defined as: The effects of human activities on coastal biotopes Concepts based on: System processes including development in time Theme 6

22. Activity 1: Identifying data on eco- morphology and coastal habitats that is appropriate for understanding and assessing how coastal habitats are evolving. Objective: To support the understanding and quantification of the physical and ecological processes. Theme 6

23. Activity 2: Explore innovative tools and methods for assessment and quantification of development- and use-related impacts on eco-morphology and coastal habitats Explore innovative tools and methods for assessment and quantification of development- and use-related impacts on eco-morphology and coastal habitatsObjectives: To evaluate and quantify the impact of use and development on coasts and estuaries To evaluate and quantify the impact of use and development on coasts and estuaries To identify existing tools and best practices To identify existing tools and best practices To work on potential improvements to the existing tools To work on potential improvements to the existing tools Theme 6

24. Activity 3: Produce a catalogue of well-proven and documented measures to counteract negative impacts of development ENCORA WIKI Objectives: To share the experiences gained by researchers and practitioners from the application of tools and methods to real- life cases. To share the experiences gained by researchers and practitioners from the application of tools and methods to real- life cases. To identify and address any gaps in the knowledge To identify and address any gaps in the knowledge Theme 6

25. Physics Geology Chemistry Biology Theme 6 concept

26. 1. Topics: eutrophication, climate change, wetlands 2. Data: listing of available databases, overview of data 3. Tools: models, measurements 4. Case studies: regionally, thematic 5. Relevant projects: listing 6. Best practice, recommendations, Marine Policy 7. Networking: EU, globally, GEO, ESFRI… 8. Capacity building Theme 6 includes

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